--- title: "Adani Ports: 2% Domestic Volume Growth, 27.5x FY27 Earnings" ticker: "ADANIPORTS" date: "2026-10-26" tags: ["deep-dive","fundamental","ports","logistics","infrastructure","adani-group"] summary: "Adani Ports grew international revenue 80% in Q1 FY27 while domestic cargo rose 2.1%. At ₹1,703 it trades at 27.5x FY27 guidance earnings. Verdict: accumulate on dips." model: "deepseek-v4-flash" watchlist: true priceAtAnalysis: 1702.7 support: 1674 resistance: 1766 supports: [1674, 1650, 1593] resistances: [1766, 1824, 1891] verdict: "ACCUMULATE ON DIPS" --- **Ticker:** ADANIPORTS (NSE: ADANIPORTS, BSE: 532921) **Sector:** Infrastructure — ports, marine services and integrated logistics **Price:** ₹1,702.70 (23 Oct 2026 close, −2.70%); ₹1,730 intraday on 26 Oct 2026 **Analysis Date:** 26 October 2026 **Data Source:** Screener.in consolidated view (fetched 26 Oct 2026), NSE corporate filings (Q1 FY27 results 29 Jul 2026, Colombo CWIT release 30 Sep 2026, Paradip subsidiary 6 Oct 2026, Oman subsidiary 22 Oct 2026, ICRA reaffirmation 16 Jul 2026), APSEZ FY26 and Q1 FY27 media releases, Q1 FY27 earnings call transcript (29 Jul 2026), Q1 FY27 investor presentation, NSE bhavcopy (9 sessions to 23 Oct 2026), Trendlyne bulk/block deal record, Trendlyne brokerage consensus **Model:** DeepSeek V4 Flash --- ## 1. Quick Snapshot — as of the 23 October 2026 Close | Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | **Market Cap** | ₹3,92,472 Cr (₹3,98,643 Cr intraday 26 Oct) | | **Current Price** | ₹1,702.70 | | **52W High / Low** | ₹1,891.10 (3 Jul 2026) / ₹1,286.58 (Oct 2025) | | **Down from 52W high** | −10.0% | | **Up from 52W low** | +32.3% | | **Shares outstanding** | 230.50 Cr (equity capital ₹461 Cr, face value ₹2) | | **Sales (FY26)** | ₹38,736 Cr (+25% YoY) | | **Sales (TTM to Jun 2026)** | ₹40,430 Cr | | **PAT (FY26)** | ₹12,782 Cr (+16%) | | **PAT (TTM)** | ₹13,121 Cr | | **EPS (TTM)** | ₹57.80 | | **Stock P/E (TTM)** | 29.5x | | **Forward P/E (FY27E, this note's model)** | 27.5x | | **PEG (forward)** | 1.49 | | **EV / EBITDA (TTM)** | 18.7x | | **Book Value** | ₹416 per share (31 Mar 2026) | | **P/B** | 4.09x | | **ROCE** | 14.1% (Screener, FY26); company reports 16% on its own definition | | **ROE** | 16.4% | | **Net debt (30 Jun 2026)** | ₹44,348 Cr (gross ₹56,776 Cr less cash ₹12,428 Cr) | | **Net debt / EBITDA** | 1.9x | | **Debtor days** | 60 | | **Piotroski F-score** | 5 / 8 assessable components | | **Earnings yield** | 3.39% | | **Dividend** | ₹7.50 per share for FY26 (0.44% yield) | | **Promoter holding** | 66.03% (30 Sep 2026) | | **Delivery, 9-session average** | 62.86% | Two numbers in that grid disagree with each other, and the disagreement is the whole story. **International ports grew revenue 80% and EBITDA 256% in the June 2026 quarter, while domestic ports — 64% of revenue and 79% of EBITDA — grew cargo volume 2.1%.** The company is being repriced as a global integrated transport operator precisely as its Indian ports business, the one that funds everything else, goes quiet. The stock is 10% below its July high. It sits below its 20, 50 and 100-day moving averages, with MACD negative and widening. It also has 62.86% average delivery over nine sessions — nearly double the NSE large-cap baseline — and foreign portfolio holding at 15.95%, the highest in the company's record. Both of those are also true. Q2 FY27 results are due **28 October 2026**, two days after this note. That is disclosed rather than worked around: everything below is a Q1-based analysis, and Section 17 says what would change on that print. --- ## 2. Business Overview — What ₹38,736 Cr of Revenue Actually Is Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone operates port infrastructure and sells the transport chain that hangs off it. The company's own description is "shore-to-door": cargo is originated (international freight network), handled at a port, moved by rail or road, stored in a warehouse or logistics park, and delivered to the customer's gate. It is the only Indian company running that chain end to end at national scale. **The five reported segments, Q1 FY27, and what each one is:** | Segment | What it is | Revenue | EBITDA | EBITDA margin | Share of revenue | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Domestic ports | 15 ports and terminals on India's west, south and east coasts | ₹6,964 Cr | ₹5,152 Cr | 74% | 64.4% | | International ports | Australia (NQXT), Colombo (CWIT), Israel (Haifa), Tanzania | ₹1,747 Cr | ₹730 Cr | 41.8% | 16.1% | | Logistics | Rail, trucking, MMLPs, warehousing, international freight network | ₹1,173 Cr | ₹219 Cr | 18.7% | 10.8% | | Marine | 135-vessel fleet: tugs, dredgers, offshore support vessels | ₹901 Cr | ₹404 Cr | 44.8% | 8.3% | | Port development and SEZ | Land, SEZ infrastructure, development income | ₹36 Cr | ₹36 Cr | 100% | 0.3% | | **Total** | | **₹10,821 Cr** | **₹6,541 Cr** | **60.4%** | **100%** | Source: APSEZ Q1 FY27 media release, 29 July 2026. Margins are on segment revenue before unallocable costs. **Domestic ports is not a growth story any more; it is a cash machine.** Domestic capacity is 653 million tonnes per annum — 355 MMT on the west coast, 158 MMT south, 140 MMT east — against 115.3 MMT handled in the June quarter. The company counted 27.6% of all India cargo in the quarter (27.8% a year earlier) and 44.8% of all India container cargo (45.2%). Both shares slipped. The 74% EBITDA margin is genuinely best in class; the volume line is not. **International ports is where the growth is, and it arrived by acquisition.** North Queensland Export Terminal in Australia — 50 MTPA of coal export capacity, bought from a promoter-group entity in December 2025 (Section 10) — contributed 10 MMT of the quarter's 22.8 MMT. Colombo contributed 6.9 MMT, Tanzania 3.7 MMT and Israel 2.2 MMT. International volumes were 7.7 MMT a year ago and the segment margin went from 21.1% to 41.8% in twelve months. **Logistics is the sub-scale segment and it is not behaving.** Revenue was flat at ₹1,173 Cr (+0.3%) and rail volume fell 19% to 145,310 TEUs. This is the one business with a stated target of 27% EBITDA CAGR to FY31 and a stated 10% RoCE today (up from 6%). Its problem is not demand from customers — trucking revenue grew 26% and the international freight network 28% — it is that rail is the piece exposed to the Middle East disruption, and rail is the piece that carries the volume. **Marine is the quiet compounder.** 135 vessels against 118 a year ago, revenue up 67%, and the whole fleet largely on take-or-pay contracts with Tier-1 customers, which means this is the only genuinely contracted revenue stream in the group. Management has said steady-state margins belong near 55% and that the current 44.8% is depressed by operating conditions, not competition. **The moat, stated plainly.** Three things, none of them pricing power in the ordinary sense. First, geography: a deep-draft port is not replicable next to an existing one, and the Indian coast has a limited number of sites with hinterland connectivity. Mundra's rail links into northern India are the reason it is India's largest port, not the water depth. Second, an integrated chain: once a customer's container is moving on APSEZ rail to an APSEZ logistics park with APSEZ trucks on the last mile, switching is an operational project, not a purchase decision. Third, capacity: management's stated view on the Q1 call was that "in the next 5 years, there are very less capacities which are being created in India", which is a claim about the permit pipeline that the company's own ₹12,000–14,000 Cr annual capex is designed to exploit. What the moat does not produce is a fast-growing domestic volume base. Ports grow with the trade they serve, and India's trade grew slowly enough in the first half of FY27 that APSEZ's domestic tonnage grew 2%. --- ## 3. Financial Performance ### 3.1 Annual P&L — FY22 to FY26, plus TTM | ₹ Cr (consolidated) | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | TTM | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Sales | 17,119 | 20,852 | 26,711 | 30,475 | **38,736** | **40,430** | | Operating profit | 9,528 | 10,947 | 15,589 | 18,421 | **22,868** | 23,399 | | OPM % | 56% | 52% | 58% | 60% | **59%** | 58% | | Other income | 1,832 | 327 | 671 | 1,800 | 2,152 | 2,778 | | Interest | 2,544 | 2,363 | 2,733 | 2,813 | **4,654** | 4,895 | | Depreciation | 3,099 | 3,425 | 3,888 | 4,379 | **5,517** | 5,974 | | Profit before tax | 5,717 | 5,487 | 9,639 | 13,030 | 14,849 | 15,308 | | Tax rate | 13% | 2% | 16% | 15% | 14% | — | | Net profit | 4,953 | 5,391 | 8,104 | 11,061 | **12,782** | 13,121 | | EPS (₹) | 23.13 | 24.58 | 37.55 | 51.35 | 55.58 | 57.80 | | Dividend payout | 22% | 20% | 16% | 14% | 13% | — | Source: Screener.in consolidated, fetched 26 October 2026. TTM is the twelve months to June 2026. **Revenue compounded 20.3% a year for four years and the operating margin held between 52% and 60% throughout.** That combination is the core of the equity case and it is unusually stable for a capital-intensive business — operating profit rose from ₹9,528 Cr to ₹22,868 Cr, a 2.4x increase, on a 2.3x revenue increase. **The line that broke the pattern is the cost lines below EBITDA.** Interest went from ₹2,813 Cr to ₹4,654 Cr (+65%) and depreciation from ₹4,379 Cr to ₹5,517 Cr (+26%) in FY26, so PBT grew 14% while operating profit grew 24%. Net profit grew 16% rather than 24%. That is what happens when a business buys a 50 MTPA terminal and builds capacity at the same time: the EBITDA arrives with a financing cost attached, and the FY26 numbers are the first year where that is visible at full-year scale. **The tax rate is the single most under-examined number in this table.** Fourteen percent in FY26, fifteen percent in FY25, sixteen in FY24 — against a statutory rate of 25.17%. Screener flags it as a con. If the rate normalises by ten points, FY27 earnings fall by roughly ₹1,680 Cr on this note's own PBT estimate, which is ₹7.29 per share, or 12% of forward EPS. Nothing in the company's press release reconciles the gap. The likely drivers are SEZ and port-concession incentives, but that is inference and I flag it as inference — the point that matters is arithmetic: **at a 25% tax rate this stock is a 31x forward earnings stock, not a 27.5x one.** ### 3.2 Quarterly trend — thirteen quarters | ₹ Cr | Q1FY24 | Q2FY24 | Q3FY24 | Q4FY24 | Q1FY25 | Q2FY25 | Q3FY25 | Q4FY25 | Q1FY26 | Q2FY26 | Q3FY26 | Q4FY26 | Q1FY27 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Sales | 6,248 | 6,646 | 6,920 | 6,896 | 7,560 | 7,067 | 7,964 | 8,488 | 9,126 | 9,167 | 9,705 | **10,738** | **10,821** | | Operating profit | 3,689 | 3,664 | 4,196 | 4,009 | 4,739 | 4,367 | 4,802 | 5,006 | 5,495 | 5,340 | 5,786 | **6,020** | **6,253** | | OPM % | 59% | 55% | 61% | 58% | 63% | 62% | 60% | 59% | 60% | 58% | 60% | 56% | 58% | | Other income | 384 | 351 | 507 | −70 | 349 | 254 | 247 | 426 | 453 | 837 | 189 | 900 | 853 | | Interest | 633 | 520 | 976 | 619 | 484 | 659 | 923 | 715 | 846 | 1,223 | 980 | 1,605 | 1,087 | | Depreciation | 950 | 974 | 985 | 979 | 1,012 | 1,077 | 1,106 | 1,185 | 1,255 | 1,264 | 1,384 | 1,615 | 1,711 | | PBT | 2,491 | 2,521 | 2,741 | 2,341 | 3,593 | 2,885 | 3,020 | 3,532 | 3,848 | 3,690 | 3,611 | 3,700 | 4,307 | | Tax % | 15% | 30% | 19% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 11% | 15% | | Net profit | 2,119 | 1,762 | 2,208 | 2,015 | 3,107 | 2,413 | 2,518 | 3,023 | 3,311 | 3,120 | 3,043 | 3,308 | **3,650** | | EPS (₹) | 9.79 | 8.09 | 10.22 | 9.44 | 14.41 | 11.32 | 11.67 | 13.95 | 15.34 | 14.39 | 13.25 | 14.45 | 15.71 | Source: Screener.in consolidated, fetched 26 October 2026. Fiscal quarters are labelled by the Indian financial year (Q1 FY24 = quarter ended June 2023). **Four things in that table matter more than the rest.** **Revenue has grown year on year in every one of the nine year-on-year pairs the table supports**, and Q1 FY27's ₹10,821 Cr is the second consecutive quarter above ₹10,700 Cr. The 19% YoY growth in the June quarter was 2.1% above the analyst consensus for the quarter. **Profit growth has decelerated to single digits against revenue growth of nearly 20%.** Q1 FY27 PAT grew 10% on revenue growth of 19%. The gap is the P&L below EBITDA: interest ₹1,087 Cr, depreciation ₹1,711 Cr. Depreciation is up 36% year on year, because NQXT and the Colombo Phase II build are now sitting on the balance sheet. **The margin has drifted from 63% in Q1 FY25 to 58% in Q1 FY27.** That is not a domestic ports problem — domestic ports printed 74% in Q1 FY27, up from 73.2% for FY26 as a whole. It is mix: the segments growing fastest (international at 41.8%, logistics at 18.7%, marine at 44.8%) are all below the domestic 74%, so every point of growth they take pulls the consolidated margin down. **The company has guided FY27 EBITDA of ₹25,000–26,000 Cr on revenue of ₹43,000–45,000 Cr, which is a 58% margin — a further 100bp of compression against FY26's 59.0%.** Management is guiding for that compression explicitly. It is a mix effect, not a pricing problem, but it does mean the EPS growth investors get is slower than the revenue growth they see. **Other income is lumpy and it is 9.4% of FY26 EBITDA.** The range across the last five quarters is ₹189 Cr to ₹900 Cr. FY26's ₹2,152 Cr is not a rounding item — it is nearly half of the ₹4,654 Cr interest bill. An analyst building a model off a clean EBITDA line and a normalised treasury income will overstate FY27 earnings by a few hundred crore in either direction. Q1 FY27's ₹853 Cr is the best single quarter in the series and should not be annualised. ### 3.3 What the FY26 guidance scorecard says about management | Metric | FY26 guidance | FY26 actual | Outcome | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue | ₹38,000 Cr | ₹38,736 Cr | Beat by 1.9% | | EBITDA | ₹22,800 Cr | ₹22,851 Cr | In line | | Capex | ₹11,000–12,000 Cr | ₹15,320 Cr | **Overrun by 28–39%** | | Net debt / EBITDA | Up to 2.5x | 1.9x | Comfortably inside | | Port cargo volume | 505–515 MMT | 500.8 MMT | **Missed** | | Trucking revenue | 3x–4x | 3.4x | In line | | Marine revenue | 2.3x | 2.34x | Beat | Source: APSEZ FY26 media release, 30 April 2026. Management has now beaten or hit revenue and EBITDA guidance in consecutive years, which is a real record. But **the two misses are the two that describe the business**: capex ran 28% above the top of its own band, and cargo volume landed below the bottom of its range. The company spent more than it said and moved less tonnage than it said, and revenue still beat — because realisation and mix did the work. That is a legitimate way to run a ports business. It is also not repeatable indefinitely, and it is the reason to discount, rather than dismiss, the FY27 volume line. --- ## 4. Balance Sheet — Five Years | ₹ Cr (consolidated) | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Equity capital | 422 | 432 | 432 | 432 | **461** | | Reserves | 41,399 | 44,957 | 52,346 | 61,837 | **95,498** | | Borrowings | 47,935 | 53,434 | 49,470 | 51,621 | **63,566** | | Other liabilities | 8,572 | 13,740 | 14,751 | 19,553 | 23,574 | | **Total liabilities** | **98,328** | **112,563** | **116,999** | **133,443** | **183,099** | | Fixed assets | 62,553 | 72,224 | 75,148 | 89,616 | **131,652** | | CWIP | 4,023 | 6,637 | 10,936 | 11,706 | 12,689 | | Investments | 3,161 | 7,432 | 4,289 | 4,659 | 5,449 | | Other assets | 28,591 | 26,271 | 26,627 | 27,461 | 33,308 | | **Total assets** | **98,328** | **112,563** | **116,999** | **133,443** | **183,099** | | Debtor days | 54 | 69 | 50 | 53 | 60 | | Working capital days | −85 | −56 | −101 | −114 | −33 | | ROCE | 11% | 10% | 13% | 15% | **14%** | Source: Screener.in consolidated, fetched 26 October 2026. **The balance sheet grew ₹49,656 Cr in one year — 37% — and that is the most important fact in this section.** Fixed assets went from ₹89,616 Cr to ₹1,31,652 Cr (+₹42,036 Cr) and borrowings from ₹51,621 Cr to ₹63,566 Cr (+₹11,945 Cr). Reserves went up ₹33,661 Cr, which is more than the year's ₹12,782 Cr profit, and the difference is explained by one transaction: **the December 2025 all-share acquisition of NQXT, settled by issuing 14.38 crore new shares at ₹1,199 each for a total non-cash consideration of ₹17,244 Cr.** Equity capital rose from ₹432 Cr to ₹461 Cr for exactly that reason. That structure is worth pausing on. The company added a 50 MTPA Australian coal terminal with a stated enterprise value of AUD 3,975 million (roughly US$2.4 billion) **without spending cash and without adding debt** — it paid the seller, a promoter-group entity, in its own stock. From a balance-sheet standpoint that is elegant: net debt/EBITDA stayed at 1.9x through a year in which capex ran ₹15,320 Cr. From a governance standpoint it is a related-party transaction of ₹17,244 Cr at a price (₹1,199) struck in April 2025, and 14.4 crore shares of dilution is 6.2% of the enlarged share count. Both readings are correct (Section 10). **Leverage is comfortable and the direction is the right one.** Gross debt was ₹56,776 Cr at 30 June 2026 against cash of ₹12,428 Cr — net debt ₹44,348 Cr, or 1.9x TTM EBITDA, and 1.8x on the company's proforma calculation using NQXT's TTM EBITDA. The stated policy ceiling is 2.5x. Average debt maturity is 5.1 years. Debt-to-equity on the FY26 balance sheet is 0.66x. **What the leverage does not show is the forward commitment.** FY27 capex guidance is ₹12,000–14,000 Cr, and management's five-year plan (Section 7) is ₹90,000 Cr to ₹1,00,000 Cr of capex through FY31. Against that, FY26 free cash flow was ₹5,074 Cr — down from ₹9,228 Cr in FY25 — and FY26 CFO covered operating profit at 96%, below the 101% of FY25 and the 104% of FY24. The company funds capex from a mix of internal accruals and debt, and the CEO's stated position on the Q1 call was that if the company did no M&A, **"in 5 years, I will be close to 0 net debt-to-EBITDA"**. That is a statement about cash generation capacity, and on the FY26 numbers it is arithmetically plausible: ₹20,356 Cr of CFO against ₹15,320 Cr of capex leaves ₹5,036 Cr, and EBITDA is growing 18% a year. **Working capital is the anomaly.** Working capital days went from −114 to −33 in one year, and debtor days from 53 to 60. For a ports business, negative working capital is normal — customers prepay, the port collects before it pays. A 81-day deterioration is a ₹8,000 Cr swing in cash at this revenue base, and it is the single largest unexplained movement in the FY26 accounts. It may be consolidation of NQXT and Tanzania, it may be receivable timing, and the annual report would settle it. It is flagged, not explained, and it is the reason FY26 FCF fell 45% while EBITDA rose 24%. --- ## 5. Cash Flow — Is the Profit Real? | ₹ Cr | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Operating cash flow (CFO) | 10,420 | 11,900 | 15,018 | 17,226 | **20,356** | | Investing cash flow (CFI) | −5,493 | −16,716 | −6,947 | −9,788 | −13,191 | | Financing cash flow (CFF) | −586 | −2,734 | −7,800 | −6,916 | −5,483 | | Net cash flow | 4,341 | −7,550 | 271 | 523 | 1,682 | | **Free cash flow** | 6,774 | 2,962 | 7,628 | 9,228 | **5,074** | | **CFO / operating profit** | 119% | 116% | 104% | 101% | **96%** | Source: Screener.in consolidated, fetched 26 October 2026. Free cash flow is CFO less capex. **The answer to "is the profit real" is yes, with a caveat that has widened.** Over five years CFO averaged 107% of operating profit. A port that collects cash ahead of its P&L is exactly what a good port looks like, and this one has done it for a decade. FY26's 96% is the lowest conversion in the five-year window and the first year below 100%. **The caveat is capex, and it is structural rather than temporary.** FY26 capex of ₹15,320 Cr against CFO of ₹20,356 Cr left ₹5,074 Cr of free cash flow — 1.29% of market capitalisation. FY25's ₹9,228 Cr was 2.35%. The business is in the middle of the largest capacity-expansion programme in its history (653 MMT to 1,000 MMT by December 2030) and it has told the market to expect ₹90,000 Cr to ₹1,00,000 Cr of capex through FY31. **For the next five years this is a company that converts EBITDA into assets, not into free cash.** The dividend is ₹7.50 a share, or ₹1,728 Cr, which is 34% of FY26 free cash flow and 13% of earnings. That is a payout policy designed to preserve the capex budget, and it should be read that way rather than as a signal of confidence. **Financing outflows have been shrinking even as debt rose** — ₹5,483 Cr in FY26 against ₹7,800 Cr in FY24 — because the company has been refinancing rather than repaying. In FY26 it completed a US$199.57m bond buyback in March and a US$386.03m buyback in August 2025, and extended average maturity from 4.3 years to 5.4 years. Net cash flow was positive ₹1,682 Cr, the second consecutive positive year after two negative ones. **One check worth doing before trusting the FCF number:** FY26 capex of ₹15,320 Cr is above the ₹11,000–12,000 Cr guidance, and the working-capital swing described in Section 4 consumed cash. The company's own framing is that capex will be funded from internal accruals — the CEO said so on the FY26 release: "Disciplined capital allocation will ensure that future capex is funded via internal accruals". On FY26 numbers that was true by ₹5,036 Cr. On the five-year plan it will not be true in every year, which is why net debt/EBITDA, not FCF, is the metric to watch. --- ## 6. Shareholding Pattern Numbers in percentages. Screener labels these columns by quarter-end; the annual columns are 31 March year-ends. | | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | **Sep 2026** | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | **Promoter** | 65.89% | 65.89% | **68.02%** | 66.03% | **66.03%** | | **FII** | 14.98% | 13.43% | 13.25% | 15.58% | **15.95%** | | **DII** | 11.84% | 14.73% | 13.86% | 13.60% | **13.26%** | | **Public** | 7.30% | 5.94% | 4.89% | 4.79% | **4.78%** | | No. of shareholders | 9,91,001 | 12,62,911 | 10,95,768 | 10,72,323 | **10,70,249** | Source: Screener.in consolidated shareholding, fetched 26 October 2026. **The promoter line is not a takeover story; it is two transactions and a block sale.** Promoter holding sat at exactly 65.89% in every quarter from March 2024 to September 2025. Then it rose to **68.02% in the December 2025 quarter** when the NQXT preferential allotment of 14.38 crore shares was issued to CRPSHPL, a promoter-group entity — a 2.13 percentage point increase, as the company disclosed at the time. Then it fell to **66.03% in the June 2026 quarter** when a promoter entity, Worldwide Emerging Market Holding Ltd, sold 4,58,58,705 shares (1.99%) for ₹7,486 Cr in the open market on 4 May 2026. So the promoter went from 65.89% to 66.03% across three years and four quarters, net. The two transactions in between moved the number by 4.1 percentage points in total and moved the share count by 6.2%. **Anyone reading "promoter holding stable" off the first and last column would miss the entire capital history of the company.** **The FII line is the most striking number in the table.** Foreign investors held 13.25% at 31 March 2026 — near the low end of the three-year range — and now hold 15.95%, the highest in the record. That is +270 basis points in two quarters and +152bp in the September quarter alone, when the stock fell. Three things explain it and they are identifiable: the May block was bought by Capital Group funds (Europacific Growth Fund, Capital Income Builder and Capital Group International All Countries Equity Trust); the S&P upgrade to BBB in July put APSEZ investment-grade at the sovereign level, which makes it eligible for mandates that exclude sub-sovereign issuers; and the Vizhinjam partnership with MSC's terminal arm put a strategic global operator on the register's other side. **DIIs did the opposite in the September quarter, cutting 34 basis points to 13.26% after adding 112bp in the two years to March 2025.** Domestic mutual funds have been net sellers for two quarters while foreign money bought. That is a rotation out of the Adani complex as it de-rated, and it is not yet reversing. Public holding is down to 4.78% from 7.39% in March 2024 — the retail float has been absorbed. --- ## 7. Order Book & Revenue Visibility **A port operator has no order book, and this one does not pretend to.** Revenue is not contracted in advance the way a defence or EPC order book is; it accrues as cargo arrives. What a port can offer instead is three things: capacity that exists and is being used, capacity being built with a date attached, and the small share of revenue that genuinely is contracted. This section sets out all three, and it does not call any of it an order book. ### 7.1 The capacity pipeline | Asset | Now | Target | Date | Status | |---|---|---|---|---| | **Domestic port capacity** | 653 MMT | 1,000 MMT | Dec 2030 | Expansions underway at Mundra, Dhamra, Vizhinjam, Ennore, Kattupalli | | Vizhinjam (Kerala) | 1.6 mn TEU | 5.7 mn TEU | Dec 2028 | Under construction; 3.5x capacity increase | | Colombo West (CWIT, Sri Lanka) | 3.2 mn TEU | — | Commissioned 30 Sep 2026 | Phase II live; US$750 mn | | NQXT (Abbot Point, Australia) | 50 MTPA | — | Consolidated Dec 2025 | Coal export terminal | | Paradip (Odisha) | — | Two dry bulk berths, 18 MMT | Won 9 Sep 2026 | SPV incorporated 6 Oct 2026 | | Indian Ocean Gateway Terminal (Oman) | — | Offshore operations platform | Incorporated 21 Oct 2026 | Pre-operational | | **Marine fleet** | 135 vessels | 200+ vessels | FY31 | Take-or-pay contracts | | **Multi-modal logistics parks** | 12 | 16 | FY31 | Under development | | **Warehousing** | 3.1 mn sq ft | 12 mn sq ft | FY31 | Under development | | **Rakes** | 132 | 200 | FY31 | Owned and leased | | **Trucks** | 937 owned | 2,000 owned + 40,000 on platform | FY31 | Asset-light platform | Sources: APSEZ Q1 FY27 media release and investor presentation ("Ambition 2031"); NSE filings 30 Sep, 6 Oct and 22 Oct 2026. **The domestic capacity number is the load-bearing target and it deserves a sceptical sentence.** 653 MMT to 1,000 MMT by December 2030 is a 53% increase in five years, against domestic cargo of 115.3 MMT in a quarter (roughly 460 MMT annualised). Capacity utilisation across the domestic system is therefore around 70%, which means the company does not need to fill the new capacity to justify it — it needs to fill the 347 MMT it is adding. Management has said domestic traffic should reach 850 MMT by CY30, which is a 14% CAGR from FY26 levels and implies utilisation of 85% on the new base. **That is a demanding assumption, and it is the single number in the entire investment case that the volume data does not currently support** (domestic volume grew 2.1% in Q1 FY27). ### 7.2 The genuinely contracted revenue **Marine is the only segment with contracted revenue at scale.** The FY26 release describes the fleet as backed by "take-or-pay contracts with Tier-1 customers", acquired through offshore support vessel purchases in the Middle East, Africa, South Asia and Indian waters. Take-or-pay means the customer pays whether or not the vessel is used. FY26 marine revenue was ₹2,681 Cr (+134%) with a 51% EBITDA margin and 13% RoCE. In Q1 FY27 it grew 67% to ₹901 Cr. Recent wins: a partnership with Oceaneering International for deepwater engineering and offshore work in Europe, and a 10-year contract supporting Argentina's first LNG exports to India — the company's entry into South America. **That is a real order book, it is small relative to the group (8.3% of revenue), and it is the highest-quality revenue APSEZ has.** It is also the segment whose margin is most exposed to the Middle East situation: management said steady-state margin is ~55% against 44.8% now, and that the gap closes when operating conditions normalise rather than when contracts renew. ### 7.3 What the visibility actually is The honest summary is that APSEZ's revenue visibility comes from **assets under construction with fixed completion dates**, not from customers under contract. Three of those dates are within eighteen months and are checkable: - **Vizhinjam to 5.7 mn TEU by December 2028** — funded in part by MSC's US$858 mn second tranche, with a strategic operator now holding 49% of the asset and an interest in filling it. - **Colombo CWIT Phase II, commissioned 30 September 2026** — 3.2 mn TEU live, targeting close to 25% of Colombo's 13 mn TEU target by 2028. - **Paradip's two dry bulk berths (18 MMT)**, won in September 2026, with the SPV incorporated in October. No commissioning date has been disclosed in the filings reviewed for this note. --- ## 8. Management Commentary — What Was Actually Said Quotes are from the Q1 FY27 earnings call on 29 July 2026 (Ashwani Gupta, Whole-time Director and CEO; Rahul Agarwal, Head of ESG and Investor Relations) and from the Q1 and FY26 media releases. Where management gave a number, it is set against the arithmetic in this note. ### 8.1 On the FY31 ambition, in the CEO's own framing > "Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, APSEZ continues to deliver strong growth underscoring the resilience of our strategy and execution. We remain firmly on track to more than double revenue, EBITDA and cash flows by FY31." > "Our scale and integrated Port, Logistics, Marine network with 95% of India hinterland coverage, driven by technology-led operations, lean organization and balance sheet capacity to fund the growth positions us to consistently to deliver 18% to 19% CAGR over coming years." The investor presentation pins this down: **FY26–31E revenue CAGR of 19%, EBITDA CAGR of 18%, and 1 percentage point of ROCE improvement every year.** Arithmetic on FY26's base: 19% revenue CAGR takes ₹38,736 Cr to ₹92,438 Cr by FY31, and 18% EBITDA CAGR takes ₹22,851 Cr to ₹52,278 Cr. Section 11 prices that outcome. ### 8.2 On the domestic volume question — the exchange that matters most Motilal Oswal's analyst asked directly why domestic volumes were muted. The answer is more candid than the release: > "2% is a very, let me say, a very average figure for us, but we would have done it better. But where we would have done it better, whether that was in our hands or it was because of the external circumstances? I think, more it was in the external circumstances." > "Here in Krishnapatnam, a very specific reason, one of our customer plant was shut off, and there was a clear shortfall of the 2 million or 2.5 million metric tons and their plant has restarted, so it will recover. So I want to be very transparent saying where there is a real issue and where it is a spot issue for 1 month or 2 months or 3 months." > "If you look at all the East Coast belt and if you compare Dhamra, Krishnapatnam, Gangavaram, even Gopalpur... we have gained the market share." Note the specific claim and note its shape: **one customer's plant outage cost 2–2.5 MMT**, on a domestic base of 115.3 MMT. That is 1.7–2.2% of the quarter — almost exactly the growth that was delivered. So the explanation is arithmetically sufficient, which makes it credible, and it also means the domestic volume line in Q2 FY27 is the direct test of whether it is true. ### 8.3 On margins in the two segments that decide FY27 > "In Marine, our margins used to be higher earlier... before the whole Middle East situation actually sprang up. We used to be somewhere in the mid-50s... steady-state margins for us in Marine, given the operations that we have had in India and Middle East and Africa, tend to be around that 55% type of a number." > "Australia historically operated around the 65% type of a number, and we are starting to get closer to the numbers... Israel is where the swing factor could be... the realization numbers in Israel are fairly high. On a per ton basis, our realization of Israel tends to be 4x of what we do in India, right? So that could be a swing factor, which could then determine how international port margin could shape up in the future." **That is the most useful paragraph in the call and it is the closest thing to free optionality in the equity case.** Israel handled 2.2 MMT in the quarter, 9.7% of international volume, at realisations four times the Indian average. If the situation normalises, the international segment's 41.8% margin has room that does not require any new capacity. ### 8.4 On whether to raise FY27 EBITDA guidance Asked whether a ₹6,541 Cr quarter implied guidance should be raised from ₹25,000–26,000 Cr: > "There are so much uncertainties because of geopolitical situation and so on... I think we want to see how this quarter goes. And then after half year, we will have a discussion on that." > "Third thing which we are doing and which we have accelerated more than before is execution of the capacity expansion, because we do believe that in the next 5 years, there are very less capacities which are being created in India. And with the trade growth, which we are seeing, because of the policy reforms, we see that trade will grow and India may be requiring more capacities than planned." **Guidance was not raised after a quarter that annualises to the top of the band.** That is deliberate conservatism, and it is the reason this note models guidance rather than the run-rate (Section 11). ### 8.5 On M&A, the balance sheet and the ABP rumour Asked about press reports of a UK port acquisition (ABP): > "We don't comment on speculation and the rumor, and I repeat that and emphasize on that." On large-ticket acquisitions and leverage: > "Today, I am at 1.9x. If I do nothing, if my only capability and capacity to invest in the organic growth, I will be negative in 5 years." > "The value of asset is not about the value of asset today. The value of asset is what return it will generate for me, considering the power of my balance sheet in the next 5 to 7 years." **Read together, those answers say: the company intends to buy something large, and it believes its balance sheet can absorb it.** That is a thesis for optionality and it is also the source of the largest single risk to the equity (Section 13) — a ₹50,000 Cr acquisition would take net debt/EBITDA through the 2.5x ceiling the same management reaffirmed in the FY27 guidance. --- ## 9. Technical Analysis — as of the 23 October 2026 Close **Data note, stated up front:** TradingView's technical panel was not retrieved for this run — the vendor page was not reachable from this environment. **All six indicators and every moving average below were computed independently from the NSE daily series** to the 23 October 2026 close of ₹1,702.70, using standard parameters (RSI 14, Stochastic 14/3/3, CCI 20, ADX 14, MACD 12/26/9, Momentum 10). A separate yfinance-based script returned RSI 42.7 on the intraday price of ₹1,731, consistent with 42.52 on the completed close. **None of the six is vendor-supplied, and none is estimated** — but if you are checking against TradingView, expect small differences from the smoothing convention used there. ### 9.1 The six-indicator oscillator panel | Indicator | Value | Read | |---|---|---| | **RSI (14)** | **42.52** | Neutral, pointing down. Above the 30 oversold line, below the 50 midline | | **Stochastic %K (14,3,3)** | **49.53** (%D 56.25) | %K has crossed below %D from mid-range. Rolling over, not oversold | | **CCI (20)** | **−119.19** | Below −100. Weak, but not at the −200 level that marks capitulation | | **ADX (14)** | **19.94** (+DI 13.57 / −DI 25.54) | **Below 20 — no trend.** −DI is nearly twice +DI: bears in control of a trendless market | | **MACD (12,26,9)** | Line **−2.79**, signal **3.09**, histogram **−5.88** | Bearish. The line crossed below signal and the histogram is widening negative | | **Momentum (10)** | **−0.31%** | Flat to negative over ten sessions | **The panel is uniformly bearish-leaning and uniformly non-extreme, which is the specific configuration to be careful about.** Nothing here is oversold enough to buy as a mean-reversion trade — CCI at −119 and RSI at 42.5 have room to fall without reaching a level that has historically marked APSEZ's tradeable lows. Nothing here is trending either: ADX at 19.94 says the market has no directional conviction, and in that regime oscillators whipsaw. The only unambiguous reading is MACD, which is negative, below its signal line and getting more so. ### 9.2 Moving averages | Type | Period | Value | Position vs ₹1,702.70 | |---|---|---|---| | EMA | 9 | ₹1,743.48 | Price 2.3% below | | EMA | 20 | ₹1,749.86 | Price 2.7% below | | SMA | 20 | ₹1,758.94 | Price 3.2% below | | EMA | 50 | ₹1,745.63 | Price 2.5% below | | SMA | 50 | ₹1,731.38 | Price 1.7% below | | EMA | 100 | ₹1,725.24 | Price 1.3% below | | SMA | 100 | ₹1,761.10 | Price 3.3% below | | **EMA** | **200** | **₹1,658.62** | **Price 2.7% above** | | **SMA** | **200** | **₹1,642.50** | **Price 3.7% above** | **Price is below all five shorter averages and above both 200-day averages.** That is the exact picture of a stock in a pullback within a longer uptrend rather than a stock in a downtrend: the long-term line at ₹1,642–1,659 is intact and rising, and every average from the 9-day to the 100-day is stacked above the price in a ₹1,725–1,761 band. The stock has to reclaim that band to change anything; the band is 1.3% to 3.3% away. **Also note what the stack is not.** A clean EMA alignment requires 9 > 20 > 50 > 200. Here EMA-9 (₹1,743) is below EMA-20 (₹1,750) and almost level with EMA-50 (₹1,746), i.e. the short averages are tangled. That is the signature of a range, not of a trend. ### 9.3 Price structure — what the pivots show | Swing | Date | Price | |---|---|---| | 52-week high | 3 Jul 2026 | ₹1,891.10 | | Pivot high | 16 Jul 2026 | ₹1,859.70 | | Pivot high | 18 Sep 2026 | ₹1,824.00 | | Pivot high | 29 Sep 2026 | ₹1,822.00 | | **Pivot low** | **8 Oct 2026** | **₹1,674.20** | | Pivot low | 31 Aug 2026 | ₹1,593.10 | | Pivot low | 12 Aug 2026 | ₹1,640.40 | | Pivot low | 31 Jul 2026 | ₹1,650.00 | **Lower highs since July and higher lows since August.** Highs: ₹1,891 → ₹1,860 → ₹1,824 → ₹1,822. Lows: ₹1,593 → ₹1,640 → ₹1,650 → ₹1,674. That is a symmetrical triangle with an apex somewhere in November, and it means the range ₹1,674–1,824 is the decision zone. The apex of a contracting triangle is where breakouts happen, and the direction is not knowable in advance — which is precisely why Section 17 does not recommend a fresh entry before it resolves. **Volatility and range:** ATR (14) is ₹45.72, or 2.69% of price. The 20-day average daily range is 2.64%. For a ₹3.9 lakh crore company that is a normal, tradeable range — wide enough for a swing, tight enough that a 5% stop is not immediately inside the noise. **Volume:** 16,28,379 shares on 23 October against a 20-day average of 29,98,801 — 0.54x. The down day that took the stock to its current level came on **half the normal volume**, which is the opposite of a distribution signature. ### 9.4 Delivery data — nine sessions to 23 October 2026 | Date | Close | Volume | Deliverable qty | Delivery % | |---|---|---|---|---| | 12 Oct 2026 | ₹1,754.00 | 1,09,01,705 | 1,01,71,991 | **93.31%** | | 13 Oct 2026 | ₹1,763.00 | 34,49,601 | 24,80,258 | 71.90% | | 14 Oct 2026 | ₹1,748.70 | 17,93,155 | 9,61,074 | 53.60% | | 15 Oct 2026 | ₹1,743.20 | 22,48,348 | 13,87,831 | 61.73% | | 16 Oct 2026 | ₹1,750.80 | 12,60,097 | 7,07,382 | 56.14% | | 19 Oct 2026 | ₹1,766.00 | 25,26,448 | 14,53,903 | 57.55% | | 21 Oct 2026 | ₹1,748.80 | 22,98,918 | 15,15,434 | 65.92% | | 22 Oct 2026 | ₹1,750.00 | 16,34,218 | 8,68,524 | 53.15% | | 23 Oct 2026 | ₹1,702.70 | 16,28,379 | 8,54,231 | 52.46% | *Nine-session average delivery: **62.86%**. Average volume: 30,86,763 shares. There was no trading session on 20 October 2026 — the bhavcopy archive serves the previous session's file for that date.* **A 62.86% delivery rate against an NSE large-cap baseline near 37% is the strongest single piece of evidence in this article that the decline is not distribution.** Delivery percentage measures the share of traded quantity that actually moved to a demat account rather than being squared off intraday. At 52–93% every session for two weeks, the people buying this stock at ₹1,700–1,766 are taking it home. **The 12 October session is the outlier and it is worth what it costs to describe honestly.** 1,09,01,705 shares — 3.6x the twenty-session average volume — traded at 93.31% delivery. That is roughly ₹1,911 Cr of stock changing hands and being delivered. It is the signature of an institutional transfer, not retail churn. **No block or bulk deal was reported for that date** (Section 10 covers the only 2026 deal, in May), which means the counterparties cleared through the ordinary market or through a mechanism the exchange does not report as a block. The delivery file cannot attribute it and this note does not. **Read against the price action:** the stock fell 2.70% on 23 October on 0.54x volume with 52.46% delivery. That is a drift down on light selling, not a mark-down. Combined with the FII line in Section 6 — 15.95% and rising — the tape agrees with the register. ### 9.5 Relative performance | Period | ADANIPORTS | Nifty 50 (relative) | |---|---|---| | 1 month | −2.0% relative | ADANIPORTS underperformed | | 3 months | +1.1% relative | Slight outperformance | | 6 months | +14.9% relative | Clear outperformance | | 1 year | +28.0% relative | Strong outperformance | Source: computed from the NSE daily series and the Nifty 50 index, to 23 October 2026. **One year of 28 percentage points of outperformance and one month of 2 points of underperformance.** The stock has been a leader for twelve months and has given back a fraction of that in October. This is not a broken chart; it is a leader taking a pause at a level where it has paused before. **What the technical picture says in one sentence:** a stock in a confirmed long-term uptrend (above both 200-day averages, 28pp ahead of the Nifty over a year) that is consolidating in a ₹1,674–1,824 triangle below every short and medium average, with a bearish MACD but no distribution in the delivery data. --- ## 10. Block Deals & Insider Activity ### 10.1 The only block deal of calendar 2026 | Date | Type | Party | Side | Quantity | Price | Value | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 4 May 2026 | Bulk + Block | Worldwide Emerging Market Holding Ltd (promoter group) | Sell | 4,58,58,705 (1.99%) | ₹1,632.45 | **₹7,486.20 Cr** | | 4 May 2026 | Bulk + Block | Europacific Growth Fund, Capital Income Builder, Capital Group International All Countries Equity Trust | Buy | 4,58,58,705 combined | ₹1,632.45 | ₹7,486.20 Cr | Source: Trendlyne bulk/block deal record for ADANIPORTS; BSE block deal data as reported on 5 May 2026. **No other bulk or block deal has been reported for ADANIPORTS in calendar 2026.** The next most recent entries in the record are from November 2025 (GQG Partners buying 73.2 lakh shares at ₹1,507.60 from Reliance Trust retirement funds) and July 2025, both outside the current year and therefore excluded from the table. **This single transaction is the most informative capital-markets event of the year and it is routinely misread.** A promoter-group entity sold 1.99% for ₹7,486 Cr at ₹1,632.45 — a 6.3% discount to that day's closing price of ₹1,742.60 — and **the buyer was Capital Group**, one of the largest active managers in the world, taking the entire line through three funds. Two things follow. **First, the promoter group's holding went from 68.02% to 66.03% and has stayed there.** That is a deliberate reduction of float, not a loss of confidence: the seller kept 1.75% (down from 3.74%) and the group still controls 66.03%. **Second, the identity of the buyer explains the FII line in Section 6.** Foreign holding went from 13.25% at 31 March to 15.58% at 30 June, +233 basis points in a quarter, and a 2% block bought by a US manager is the bulk of it. **A ₹7,486 Cr strategic buyer at ₹1,632 is the strongest possible statement that the stock was cheap in May**, and the current price is 4.3% above that entry. ### 10.2 The promoter-group share issuance — the fact that needs both readings | Date | Action | Detail | |---|---|---| | Board approval 17 Apr 2025; allotment completed 23 Dec 2025 | Preferential allotment to CRPSHPL | 14,38,20,153 shares at ₹1,199 for ₹17,244 Cr, **consideration other than cash**, for 100% of Abbot Point Port Holdings Pte Ltd (NQXT, Australia), enterprise value AUD 3,975 mn | Sources: EGM notice dated 17 April 2025; APSEZ completion disclosure 23 December 2025. **The transaction in one line: APSEZ bought a 50 MTPA Australian coal export terminal from a promoter-group entity and paid in its own shares, at a price 30% below today's market price, increasing the share count by 6.2% to 230.5 crore shares.** The bull reading is that this is exactly the right use of an equity currency. No cash left the company, no debt was added, net debt/EBITDA stayed at 1.9x through a ₹15,320 Cr capex year, and the asset delivered about ₹1,350 Cr of FY26 EBITDA — a 7.8% EBITDA yield on the consideration, rising as the terminal is consolidated for a full year from FY27. The bear reading is that a ₹17,244 Cr related-party purchase from the promoter group, priced by the promoter, paid in promoter-received shares, and approved by a "majority of minority" vote, is the precise structure that a governance discount exists to price. The independent check available to a minority holder is the FY26 accounts, where the acquired fixed assets and the ₹33,661 Cr reserve movement appear — and that check is not granular enough to value NQXT separately. **Both readings are true simultaneously, and the market has been pricing the second one for two years.** That is what the 27.5x forward multiple on a 19% grower is: not expensive for the business, expensive for the governance. ### 10.3 Insider and institutional flow No promoter purchases have been disclosed in 2026. The promoter line has moved only through the December 2025 allotment (+2.13pp) and the May 2026 block (−1.99pp). No pledge has been disclosed in the filings reviewed for this note. FIIs added 152bp in the September quarter; DIIs cut 34bp (Section 6). --- ## 11. Forward PE Valuation ### 11.1 What the stock costs today | Basis | Figure | |---|---| | Price (23 Oct 2026 close) | ₹1,702.70 | | Shares | 230.50 Cr | | Market capitalisation | ₹3,92,472 Cr | | Net debt (30 Jun 2026) | ₹44,348 Cr | | **Enterprise value** | **₹4,36,820 Cr** | | EV / EBITDA (FY26 actual ₹22,851 Cr) | 19.1x | | EV / EBITDA (TTM ₹23,399 Cr) | 18.7x | | EV / EBITDA (FY27 guidance midpoint ₹25,500 Cr) | **17.1x** | | P/E (TTM EPS ₹57.80) | 29.5x | | **P/E (FY27E EPS ₹61.95, this note's model)** | **27.5x** | | P/E (FY28E EPS ₹71.83) | 23.7x | | P/B (book value ₹416) | 4.09x | | Dividend yield | 0.44% | | Earnings yield | 3.39% | | FCF yield (FY26 FCF ₹5,074 Cr) | 1.29% | ### 11.2 The multi-source estimate table | Source | Date | Target | Rating | Implied upside from ₹1,702.70 | |---|---|---|---|---| | **Consensus (Trendlyne)** | 25 Oct 2026 | **₹2,073.48** | Buy | **+21.8%** | | Motilal Oswal | 7 Sep 2026 | ₹2,130 | Buy | +25.1% | | Simply Wall St (analyst consensus) | Jul 2026 | ₹2,008 | — | +17.9% | | Jefferies | 2026 | ₹1,980 | Buy | +16.3% | | JM Financial | 3 Feb 2026 | ₹1,800 | Buy | +5.7% | | Cantor Fitzgerald | 2026 | ₹1,780 | Overweight | +4.5% | Sources: Trendlyne research-report aggregation (consensus and Motilal Oswal), Simply Wall St narrative updates, published brokerage notes as reported. **Only one of these is a full model with disclosed estimates, and it is the one to check against.** JM Financial's February 2026 note carries FY26E/FY27E/FY28E revenue, EBITDA and EPS: **FY27E EPS ₹74.04 and FY28E EPS ₹86.48** on FY27E revenue of ₹46,027 Cr and EBITDA of ₹27,954 Cr. Motilal Oswal's September 2026 note is a target-price revision without disclosed line items in the available material. ### 11.3 Credibility check: what the analyst EPS requires This is the test that matters, and it is arithmetic rather than opinion. Take JM's FY27E EPS of ₹74.04 and work backwards through the P&L using the company's own reported cost lines: | Step | Calculation | Result | |---|---|---| | Implied FY27 PAT | ₹74.04 × 230.50 Cr shares | ₹17,066 Cr | | Implied PBT (at a 15% tax rate, the Q1 FY27 actual) | ₹17,066 Cr ÷ 0.85 | ₹20,078 Cr | | Add back depreciation (Q1 FY27 ₹1,711 Cr × 4) | + ₹6,844 Cr | ₹26,922 Cr | | Add back interest (Q1 FY27 ₹1,087 Cr × 4) | + ₹4,348 Cr | ₹31,270 Cr | | Less other income (₹2,800 Cr assumed) | − ₹2,800 Cr | **₹28,470 Cr** | | **= Implied FY27 EBITDA** | | **~₹28,500 Cr** | **That is 9.5% above the top of management's FY27 EBITDA guidance of ₹26,000 Cr and 11.6% above the midpoint.** The same note's own revenue estimate of ₹46,027 Cr is 2.3% above the top of the ₹43,000–45,000 Cr revenue band. So the ₹74 EPS is not a conservative input. It requires the company to beat the top end of both its revenue and EBITDA guidance by a margin that management explicitly declined to guide to when asked on the Q1 call (Section 8.4). That does not make it wrong — FY26 guidance was beaten on revenue, and the company has form. It makes it an assumption rather than a forecast, and it means **the consensus target of ₹2,073 should be read as a target built on an above-guidance earnings base.** ### 11.4 Scenario table — three guidance-consistent paths All three scenarios hold depreciation at ₹6,850 Cr, interest at ₹4,650 Cr and other income at ₹2,800 Cr for FY27, and tax at 15%. EPS is on 230.50 Cr shares. | Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | EBITDA margin | PBT | PAT | EPS | Forward P/E | EV/EBITDA | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | **Conservative** (guidance floor) | ₹43,000 Cr | ₹25,000 Cr | 58.1% | ₹16,300 Cr | ₹13,855 Cr | **₹60.11** | **28.3x** | 17.5x | | **Moderate** (guidance midpoint) | ₹44,000 Cr | ₹25,500 Cr | 58.0% | ₹16,800 Cr | ₹14,280 Cr | **₹61.95** | **27.5x** | 17.1x | | **Optimistic** (guidance top) | ₹45,000 Cr | ₹26,000 Cr | 57.8% | ₹17,300 Cr | ₹14,705 Cr | **₹63.80** | **26.7x** | 16.8x | | **Analyst-implied** (JM Financial) | ₹46,027 Cr | ~₹28,500 Cr | ~61.9% | ₹20,078 Cr | ₹17,066 Cr | **₹74.04** | **23.0x** | 15.3x | **A sanity check on the moderate case:** Q1 FY27 EPS was ₹15.71. Four quarters at that run-rate is ₹62.84, which sits between the moderate and optimistic cases. The model is not inventing anything the company has not already printed for one quarter — it is assuming the June quarter's run-rate holds through the monsoon quarter, which is the one assumption worth arguing about. In FY26, Q2 EBITDA (₹5,340 Cr) was 2.8% below Q1 (₹5,495 Cr). Apply that seasonality to FY27 and the moderate case lands closer to ₹60 than ₹62. **FY28 base case, for the exit multiple:** revenue ₹50,600 Cr (+15%), EBITDA ₹29,348 Cr (58.0%), depreciation ₹7,600 Cr, interest ₹4,700 Cr, other income ₹2,900 Cr, tax 17% — PBT ₹19,948 Cr, PAT ₹16,557 Cr, **EPS ₹71.83, forward P/E 23.7x, EV/EBITDA 14.9x.** ### 11.5 What ₹2,073 actually requires | Multiple applied to FY28E EBITDA (₹29,348 Cr) | Implied EV | Implied market cap | Implied price | vs ₹1,702.70 | |---|---|---|---|---| | 12x | ₹3,52,176 Cr | ₹3,07,828 Cr | ₹1,335 | −21.6% | | 14x | ₹4,10,872 Cr | ₹3,66,524 Cr | ₹1,590 | −6.6% | | **14.9x (current)** | ₹4,36,820 Cr | ₹3,92,472 Cr | ₹1,703 | 0.0% | | 16x | ₹4,69,568 Cr | ₹4,25,220 Cr | ₹1,845 | +8.3% | | **17.8x** | ₹5,22,285 Cr | ₹4,77,937 Cr | **₹2,073** | **+21.8%** | | 18x | ₹5,28,264 Cr | ₹4,83,916 Cr | ₹2,099 | +23.3% | | 20x | ₹5,86,960 Cr | ₹5,42,612 Cr | ₹2,354 | +38.3% | **The consensus target of ₹2,073 is arithmetically 17.8x FY28E EBITDA, or 20.5x FY27E EBITDA.** Neither multiple is absurd for this asset — APSEZ traded at 19.1x FY26 EBITDA a year ago on a smaller base — but neither is conservative either. **The target requires two things to both be true: the FY28 earnings estimate to be delivered, and the multiple to expand by 2.9 turns from where the stock trades today.** A reader should treat ₹2,073 as "earnings delivered and re-rated", not "earnings delivered". ### 11.6 PEG, and why both readings are uncomfortable | Measure | Value | Comment | |---|---|---| | **Trailing PEG** | 2.34 | P/E 29.5x ÷ TTM EPS growth 12.6% | | **Forward PEG** | 1.49 | FY28E P/E 23.7x ÷ FY27–28 EPS growth 15.9% | The trailing PEG looks terrible and is distorted: FY26 EPS growth of 12.6% was suppressed by the interest and depreciation step-up from NQXT consolidation and by tax normalisation, not by a deterioration in the operating business (operating profit grew 24%). The forward PEG of 1.49 is the fairer number and it is still not cheap — a PEG of 1.0 is the conventional line between growth at a fair price and growth at a premium, and 1.49 says this stock is priced for its growth plus a bit. **Neither measure flatters the stock, and that is the honest conclusion: this is not a value stock and it is not a bubble. It is a 19% compounder priced at 27.5x forward earnings, with a governance discount and a capex overrun history that justify the discount to its own multiple of a year ago.** ### 11.7 What the FY31 ambition is worth Management's stated target is a doubling of revenue, EBITDA and cash flow by FY31. Arithmetic on 18% EBITDA CAGR from ₹22,851 Cr gives **₹52,278 Cr of FY31 EBITDA.** Discount that five years forward at a range of exit multiples: | FY31 exit multiple | FY31 EV | Implied price today (net debt held flat) | 5-year CAGR from ₹1,702.70 | |---|---|---|---| | 14x | ₹7,31,892 Cr | ₹2,983 | **11.9%** | | 16x | ₹8,36,448 Cr | ₹3,436 | **15.1%** | | 18x | ₹9,41,004 Cr | ₹3,890 | **18.0%** | **That table is the entire long-term case, and it is an honest one.** If APSEZ delivers 18% EBITDA CAGR and the market still pays 16x for it in 2031, an investor buying today earns roughly 15% a year including dividends. If the market de-rates it to 14x — a real possibility if the Adani group discount persists or if global port comparison multiples compress — the return falls to 12%. **The stock does not need a re-rating to work; it needs the EBITDA growth. But the growth alone at a flat-to-lower multiple delivers a good return, not a spectacular one.** --- ## 12. Recent News & Catalysts ### Positive **Q1 FY27 beat on revenue, missed on EPS.** Revenue ₹10,821 Cr (+19% YoY) came in 2.1% above consensus; EPS of ₹15.71 missed by 2.2%. EBITDA of ₹6,541 Cr (+19%) held the 60.4% consolidated margin. International ports did the work: revenue +80% to ₹1,747 Cr, EBITDA +256% to ₹730 Cr, margin 41.8% against 21.1%. **S&P upgraded APSEZ to BBB from BBB− with a stable outlook.** The upgrade puts the company at the same rating as the Indian sovereign — an unusual position for an Indian corporate — and it is the third international agency action in twelve months, after JCR's A− (above sovereign) and Moody's outlook revision to stable. CARE and ICRA reaffirmed AAA domestically. The practical effect is a wider pool of investment-grade mandates, and the FII line in Section 6 is consistent with it. **Colombo West International Terminal Phase II commissioned, 30 September 2026.** USD 750 million doubled capacity from 1.6 to 3.2 million TEUs; the terminal handled 2 million TEUs in its first 18 months, the fastest in the Port of Colombo's history, and can now berth three ultra-large container vessels simultaneously. Forty-nine percent of the asset is being sold to MSC's terminal arm at a US$2.85 billion enterprise value (below), which means the company has brought the world's largest shipping line into its transshipment strategy as a shareholder rather than a customer. **Vizhinjam: MSC's TiL to invest US$1.397 billion for 49%.** Announced 30 June 2026, at an implied enterprise value of US$2.85 billion — the largest foreign private investment in Indian port infrastructure. APSEZ keeps 51%, board control and consolidation. The money arrives in two tranches: US$539 million for the stake and US$858 million toward the expansion to 5.7 million TEUs by December 2028. Vizhinjam is India's first deep-draft transshipment port, handled 1.3 million TEUs in FY26, crossed 2 million TEUs in 18 months, and welcomed its 1,000th vessel in June 2026. **Paradip: 18 MMT of dry bulk capacity won, 9 September 2026.** Two dry bulk berths at Paradip Port, Odisha, with the wholly owned subsidiary Paradip Mahanadi Terminal Ltd incorporated on 6 October 2026 with ₹5 lakh of paid-up capital. This is the east-coast expansion in its earliest, cheapest form: a concession win before the capex starts. **H1 FY27 cargo 280 MMT, up 15% — and September accelerated.** September 2026 cargo was 46 MMT (+11% YoY), led by container volume up 15%. That is the monthly data that most directly contradicts the weak Q1 domestic figure, and it is the strongest argument that the Krishnapatnam explanation in Section 8.2 is real. **Both credit actions and the operational record feed the same conclusion:** the company's cost of capital is falling while its asset base grows, which is the mechanically value-accretive combination for a business that borrows to build. ### Neutral **Board meeting and Q2/H1 FY27 results on 28 October 2026, analyst call at 6:00 pm IST.** Two days after this note. Participants: Ashwani Gupta, S Krishna Menon (CFO), Niraj Bansal, Divij Taneja, Rahul Agarwal. This is the binary near-term event (Section 17). **Investor meetings in Singapore, 18–19 November 2026**, and a series of institutional meetings through August–October 2026. Routine, but it signals the company is marketing the international-port story to Asian funds. **Indian Ocean Gateway Terminal incorporated in Oman, 21 October 2026**, with OMR 5,00,000 of capital, "to conduct its offshore operations locally". A pre-operational shell for the marine business's Middle East operations, not an asset. **Logistics rail volume down 13% in H1 FY27** to 312,763 TEUs, though September rail was up 3% year on year at 62,302 TEUs — the first positive month in the sequence. Management attributed the decline to the Middle East situation and said volumes had "stabilised and are recovering moderately". This is a segment problem, not a group problem at 10.8% of revenue. **All-India market share slipped 20bp to 27.6% (cargo) and 40bp to 44.8% (containers).** Small moves, in the wrong direction, on a base where APSEZ is already the dominant operator. Watch it rather than act on it. ### Negative **Domestic cargo volume grew 2.1% in Q1 FY27.** That is the slowdown the entire article circles. Management has an explanation that is arithmetically sufficient (one customer's plant outage, 2–2.5 MMT), but the number is the number. **Three SEBI settlements in September 2026.** On 10 September, SEBI settled proceedings against APSEZ's CEO and CFO over disclosure obligations under Regulation 17(8), with the company stating nil financial impact. On 22 September, SEBI disclosed a settlement with five Adani group companies over Hindenburg-era related-party-transaction and disclosure allegations, involving a total of about ₹1.5 crore. On 28 September, a further order settled minimum-public-shareholding allegations against four group companies including APSEZ and Gautam Adani at ₹37.05 lakh per applicant group, ₹1.482 crore in total. All three were settled without admission or denial of the findings, and the company stated each has no material financial impact. **Financially these are rounding errors. Reputationally they are the clearest sign yet that the group-level regulatory overhang is being cleared rather than added to** — which is a positive, and it is filed here under negative because the underlying allegations concerned APSEZ. **Capex overran FY26 guidance by 28–39%** (₹15,320 Cr against ₹11,000–12,000 Cr) and cargo volume missed the bottom of the guided range (500.8 MMT against 505–515 MMT). **Press reports of a potential UK port acquisition (ABP) in July 2026**, which management declined to comment on. A deal of the size reported would be transformative and would consume most of the balance-sheet headroom below 2.5x. --- ## 13. Key Risks | Risk | Severity | Why it matters, with numbers | |---|---|---| | **Related-party acquisitions from the promoter group** | **High** | ₹17,244 Cr of NQXT bought from a promoter entity for shares at ₹1,199, and the CEO has said publicly that the balance sheet can absorb a large acquisition. A second related-party deal at scale would widen the governance discount rather than narrow it | | **Domestic volume growth stalling** | **High** | Q1 FY27 domestic cargo +2.1% against a 14% CAGR needed to hit 850 MMT by CY30. If India's trade growth is structurally slower, the 1,000 MMT capacity target is capex without cargo | | **Tax rate normalisation** | **High** | The FY26 rate was 14% against a 25.17% statutory rate. Ten points of normalisation costs ₹1,680 Cr of FY27 PAT — 12% of EPS — and takes the forward multiple from 27.5x to 31x | | **Capex execution and overrun** | **Medium-High** | FY26 capex was 28–39% above guidance; the five-year plan is ₹90,000–1,00,000 Cr. Each ₹5,000 Cr of overrun adds roughly ₹0.2 turns of net debt/EBITDA | | **Geopolitical exposure — Israel** | **Medium-High** | Israel handled 2.2 MMT in Q1 FY27 at realisations 4x the Indian average. It is 9.7% of international volume and the single biggest swing factor in international margins, in both directions | | **Middle East disruption to logistics** | **Medium** | H1 rail volume −13%, Q1 −19%. Logistics is 10.8% of revenue at an 18.7% margin and was flat in Q1 | | **Global trade and tariff uncertainty** | **Medium** | Management named "geopolitical volatility and ongoing global tariff uncertainty" in the FY26 release. Cargo volumes are a direct derivative of trade flows the company does not control | | **Leverage if M&A arrives** | **Medium** | Net debt/EBITDA 1.9x against a 2.5x policy ceiling leaves roughly ₹13,000 Cr of headroom on current EBITDA. A large international acquisition breaches the policy in one step | | **Group governance discount** | **Medium** | Three SEBI settlements in September 2026, all small, all closed. The discount in the multiple is a market judgement that the overhang is not fully behind the group | | **Concentration in individual customers and ports** | **Medium** | The Mundra recovery and the Krishnapatnam outage both turned on single customer plants. A ports business is a derivative of its hinterland customers, not a diversified industrial | | **Payout discipline** | **Low** | Dividend ₹7.50 (34% of FY26 FCF, 13% of earnings). If capex runs ahead of CFO for several years, the dividend is the flexible line | | **Interest rate and refinancing** | **Low** | Average maturity 5.1 years, ₹56,776 Cr gross debt, investment grade at three agencies, and a refinancing track record through the FY26 buybacks | --- ## 14. Screener.in Pros and Cons Screener's machine-generated checklist, presented as published and then assessed: **Pros** - *"Company has delivered good profit growth of 21.0% CAGR over last 5 years."* True and verifiable: PAT went from ₹4,953 Cr (FY22) to ₹12,782 Cr (FY26), which is a 26.7% CAGR on those two points; the five-year figure of 21.0% uses a different base year and is consistent with the series. **The observation is fair.** - *"Company's median sales growth is 20.3% of last 10 years."* True: revenue went from ₹12,550 Cr in FY21 to ₹38,736 Cr in FY26, and the ten-year median is 20.3%. **Fair, and notable for its consistency — this is not one good year.** **Cons** - *"Stock is trading at 4.20 times its book value."* True at the screener's fetch price; at ₹1,702.70 it is 4.09x. **Fair as a fact, arguable as a criticism** — a ports business with 74% domestic EBITDA margins and 16% RoCE on a ₹1.83 lakh crore asset base is not naturally a book-value story, and P/B is a poor lens for concession assets that were built rather than bought. - *"Tax rate seems low."* **This is the most valuable line Screener produces on this stock, and it is the one this note treats as material** (Sections 3.1 and 13). At 14% against a 25.17% statutory rate, the gap is worth about 12% of forward EPS. **What Screener's checklist misses, and it misses the two things that matter most:** it does not flag the ₹17,244 Cr related-party acquisition from the promoter group, and it does not flag that 14.4 crore shares — 6.2% of the enlarged share count — were issued in that transaction. A checklist built on ratios cannot see a governance event. --- ## 15. Bull vs Bear ### The bull case **1. The FY31 ambition is a doubling, and the company has hit its revenue guidance two years running.** Revenue ₹38,736 Cr to ₹92,438 Cr at 19% CAGR; EBITDA ₹22,851 Cr to ₹52,278 Cr at 18%. On those numbers and a 16x exit multiple in 2031, an investor at today's price earns roughly **15% a year**. **2. The growth is now coming from the segments with the most pricing power.** International revenue +80% in Q1 FY27, marine +67%, on assets (NQXT, CWIT, Vizhinjam, the OSV fleet) that are either newly acquired or newly commissioned. The margin drag from mix reverses as those assets mature: management says Australia is heading back toward 65% margins and Israel has 4x India realisation waiting on a geopolitical normalisation. **3. Vizhinjam is a strategic asset that just got externally valued.** MSC's TiL paid US$1.397 billion for 49% at a US$2.85 billion enterprise value. APSEZ carries Vizhinjam at cost. That is an unmarked gain in the accounts and a de-risked expansion — the partner funding the build is the world's largest container line, whose ships will call there. **4. The balance sheet is under-levered relative to its cash generation.** 1.9x net debt/EBITDA, 5.1 years average maturity, BBB from S&P at sovereign level, AAA domestically. The CEO's own arithmetic — near-zero net debt in five years if nothing is acquired — is the leverage optionality in the story. **5. The tape agrees, and it is not just price.** Delivery averaging 62.86% for nine sessions against a ~37% market baseline, FII holding at a record 15.95%, and Capital Group taking a full 2% block at ₹1,632 in May. Institutions are accumulating, not distributing. **6. The regulatory overhang is being closed, not extended.** Three SEBI settlements in September 2026, all for amounts under ₹1.5 crore each, all without admission. Each one removed a live proceeding. ### The bear case **1. Domestic volume grew 2.1%, and the 1,000 MMT target needs 14% a year.** Every incremental rupee of capex is justified by a volume assumption that the most recent quarter did not support. The Krishnapatnam explanation is credible; it is also unverifiable until Q2 FY27. **2. The consensus earnings base is above management's own guidance.** ₹74 of FY27 EPS requires ₹28,500 Cr of EBITDA against a guided ₹25,000–26,000 Cr. If the company delivers what it guided, EPS is ₹60–64, the forward P/E is 27–28x, and the consensus target of ₹2,073 needs a 2.9-turn multiple expansion on top of the earnings. **3. The tax rate will normalise.** 14% in FY26 against a 25.17% statutory rate. Ten points of normalisation is 12% of forward EPS. This is the single largest unmodelled risk in every bull model on the street, and Screener flags it and the sell side does not. **4. The capex overrun is a pattern, not an accident.** ₹15,320 Cr against ₹11,000–12,000 Cr guidance. In a business where the return is the spread between the cost of capital and the return on the asset, a 30% capex overrun on a fixed-revenue concession is a permanent return-on-capital problem — and ROCE has already slipped from 15% to 14% reported (though the company reports 16% on its own definition, up from 15%). **5. Related-party concentration.** The largest asset added in three years was bought from the promoter group, priced in shares the promoter received, at a 30% discount to today's market. A minority holder's protection is the majority-of-minority vote and the disclosure, and neither prices the asset independently. **6. Free cash flow is 1.29% of market capitalisation and heading lower.** ₹5,074 Cr of FY26 FCF, working capital deteriorated 81 days, and the five-year capex plan is ₹90,000–1,00,000 Cr. This is a business that will not produce meaningful free cash to shareholders before FY30, which means the entire return depends on the terminal multiple. **7. The chart is not confirming anything.** Below the 9, 20, 50 and 100-day averages, MACD negative and widening, ADX below 20, −DI at nearly twice +DI, CCI below −100. It is a range with a bearish tilt, 1.3% below the bottom of the moving-average band that would change the picture. --- ## 16. 25-Point Swing Trading Checklist Assessment Assessed against the 23 October 2026 close of ₹1,702.70, using the indicator panel in Section 9, the delivery data in Section 9.4 and the fundamentals in Sections 3–7. | # | Checklist item | Evidence | Verdict | |---|---|---|---| | 1 | Price position | 10.0% below the ₹1,891 high — comfortably inside the 25% band | Pass | | 2 | Trend | Higher lows since August (₹1,593 → ₹1,640 → ₹1,650 → ₹1,674) but lower highs since July (₹1,891 → ₹1,860 → ₹1,824 → ₹1,822); above both 200-DMAs, below all shorter ones | Caution | | 3 | Volume characteristics | 23 Oct down day on 0.54x the 20-day average volume — no distribution; but no volume expansion on any up move either | Caution | | 4 | Clean price action | ATR 2.69%, ADR 2.64%, no gap-and-trap sessions in the window, orderly triangle since August | Pass | | 5 | EMA alignment | EMA9 ₹1,743.5, EMA20 ₹1,749.9, EMA50 ₹1,745.6, EMA200 ₹1,658.6 — mis-stacked at the short end and price below all three shorter averages | Fail | | 6 | Chart pattern and base | Symmetrical triangle, ₹1,674–1,824, three months, contraction intact; not a cup, flat base or ascending base | Caution | | 7 | Base quality | Tightening range with higher lows and 62.86% average delivery — accumulation consistent; apex not yet resolved | Caution | | 8 | ADR | ADR 2.64%, ATR ₹45.72 (2.69%) — tradeable for a swing, tight enough for a 5% stop | Pass | | 9 | Primary uptrend | Above EMA200 by 2.7% and SMA200 by 3.7%, both rising; +28.0pp versus the Nifty over one year | Pass | | 10 | Follow one model | A breakout model has nothing to break until ₹1,824; a pullback model has a defined higher low at ₹1,674 to buy against | Caution | | 11 | Sector strength | Ports and logistics are not a leading sector in this market; JSW Infrastructure trades at 47.9x, GPPL at 14.1x — no sector-wide re-rating to ride | Caution | | 12 | Tailwind | 1,000 MMT capacity target, Colombo Phase II live, Vizhinjam MSC partnership, S&P upgrade, India trade growth | Pass | | 13 | IPO consideration | Listed 2007; nineteen years of price history, no post-IPO base dynamics | Pass | | 14 | Price action strength | +28.0pp versus Nifty over one year, +14.9pp over six months, −2.0pp over one month | Pass | | 15 | Sector and government boost | Sagarmala, National Logistics Policy, the IMEC corridor, and port-led development are all stated government priorities; the company's 95% hinterland coverage is the delivery mechanism | Pass | | 16 | Fundamental quality | 74% domestic EBITDA margin, 1.9x net debt/EBITDA, BBB sovereign-level rating, 16% ROCE — but 60% other-income-to-interest cover and a 14% tax rate carry quality-of-earnings questions | Pass | | 17 | Quarterly earnings growth | Q1 FY27 PAT +10.2%, revenue +18.6%, EBITDA +19.1% — below the 30–50% band this checklist wants, and decelerating for four quarters | Fail | | 18 | Delivery percentage | 62.86% nine-session average against a ~37% market baseline; 52.46% on the final down day against 1,628,379 shares | Pass | | 19 | News and institutional activity | S&P upgrade to BBB, Colombo Phase II, Vizhinjam/MSC at US$2.85bn EV, FII at a record 15.95%, Capital Group on the register via a ₹7,486 Cr block | Pass | | 20 | Risk management | Entry, stop and targets defined in Section 17; a 3.3% stop below ₹1,647 sits below the 31 August pivot low and inside a 2.69% ATR — position size is the variable | Pass | | 21 | Market environment | Large-cap index context is neutral; no evidence of a broad risk-off that would invalidate a large-cap long. Nifty 50 has not broken down | Pass | | 22 | Liquidity | 30,86,763 shares average daily volume, ₹525 Cr a day traded — no liquidity constraint at any reasonable size | Pass | | 23 | Relative strength | +28.0pp over one year, +14.9pp over six months, +1.1pp over three months, −2.0pp over one month | Pass | | 24 | Breakout confirmation | None. The stock is below the entire short and medium moving-average stack, and the ₹1,674–1,824 triangle has not resolved | Fail | | 25 | Trading psychology | The temptation is to buy a 27.5x large cap two days before its results on a long-term story. Q2 FY27 is on 28 October — waiting is free | Pass | **Score: 18 / 25 — Moderate. Needs a catalyst for entry.** | Score range | Meaning | |---|---| | 22–25 | Strong — consider entry | | **17–21** | **Moderate — needs a catalyst** | | Below 17 | Weak — pass | **The score is the honest middle and the failures are specific.** Trend, EMA alignment, earnings growth and breakout confirmation all fail, and those are four of the five items the checklist treats as critical (items 1, 2, 6, 20 and 24 — one of which, trend, does not fully fail: it is a caution). What passes is everything about the business, the liquidity, the institutional flow and the delivery data. **This is a company you want to own and a chart that has not yet told you when — and the catalyst that resolves it is dated: 28 October 2026.** --- ## 17. Final Verdict **Verdict: ACCUMULATE ON DIPS. Staggered buying into ₹1,620–1,680, with the Q2 FY27 print on 28 October as the gate.** The business case is stronger than the price action and the price action is better than the headlines. Revenue has compounded 20% a year with a 52–60% operating margin held throughout, four international ports and a 135-vessel marine fleet have been added in three years, the largest container line in the world just bought 49% of the flagship transshipment port at an enterprise value that implies ₹2.85 billion of unmarked value, and the balance sheet carries 1.9x leverage with investment-grade ratings at three agencies. Against that, domestic volume grew 2.1%, the stock costs 27.5x FY27 guidance earnings, the tax rate is nine points below statutory, capex has overrun guidance by 30%, and the chart sits below every average shorter than 200 days. **Neither side of that is a surprise to the market, and the price reflects the compromise.** Ten percent off the high, 29.5x trailing, 4.1x book, consensus target ₹2,073 which is 17.8x FY28 EBITDA — the stock is priced as a good business with a governance discount applied, which is what it is. **The case for buying on weakness rather than on strength rests on three things the delivery data and the register both support:** 62.86% average delivery for nine sessions, FII holding at a record 15.95% with a new ₹7,486 Cr strategic holder from May, and a symmetrical triangle that has been built with higher lows since August. Institutions are accumulating a stock that retail has been selling. **Levels, as of the 23 October 2026 close (₹1,702.70):** - **Immediate support: ₹1,674** — the 8 October pivot low and the bottom of the current range. It held once, at the low of the last leg down. - **Below that: ₹1,650 and ₹1,593** — the 31 July pivot low and the 31 August swing low, which is where the higher-low sequence would break and the triangle would resolve downward. - **Immediate resistance: ₹1,725–1,766** — the EMA100 at ₹1,725.2, the SMA50 at ₹1,731.4, the EMA9 at ₹1,743.5, the EMA50 at ₹1,745.6, the EMA20 at ₹1,749.9, the SMA20 at ₹1,758.9 and the SMA100 at ₹1,761.1, all inside 2.1% of each other. This band is the whole argument. - **Above that: ₹1,785 and ₹1,824** — the 19 October intraday high and the 18 September pivot high, which is the top of the triangle. - **The re-rating level: ₹1,891** — the 3 July 52-week high. A close above it would put the stock in price discovery with the FY31 doubling story as the only reference. - **Entry zone: ₹1,620–1,680.** That is the 8 October low, the 12 August pivot low at ₹1,640 and the 31 July pivot low at ₹1,650. Buying the zone rather than the level is the right approach for a stock with a 2.69% ATR. - **Stop discipline: a close below ₹1,590.** That is under the 31 August swing low, which is the last higher low in the sequence. It is 6.6% below the current price, roughly 2.4 ATRs, which is the right distance for this instrument given the event on 28 October. - **Position sizing:** no single position above 5% of portfolio for a stock with 2.7% daily range and a results print in two days. **What would change the verdict to a straight buy, in order of importance:** 1. **Q2 FY27 domestic cargo growth of 5% or more**, which would confirm the Krishnapatnam outage was spot rather than structural — the single most important number in the next print. 2. **FY27 EBITDA guidance raised above ₹26,000 Cr** after H1, which management explicitly deferred to the half-year (Section 8.4). A raise would validate the top-end scenario and make the consensus ₹74 EPS defensible. 3. **A close above ₹1,766 on volume at 1.5x the 20-day average**, which reclaims the moving-average band with participation. 4. **Confirmation that the Vizhinjam TiL transaction has received its regulatory approvals and closed**, converting a signed agreement into cash and a strategic partner on the register. 5. **An ROCE print that holds at or above 16%** on the company's definition while capex runs at ₹12,000–14,000 Cr a year — the test of whether the capex programme is value-accretive or merely large. **What would confirm the caution was right:** a close below ₹1,674 followed by failure to reclaim it within two weeks, domestic cargo growth below 3% again in Q2, or any related-party acquisition announced above ₹10,000 Cr, which would take net debt/EBITDA through the 2.5x policy in one step. **Suitable investor profile:** a long-term holder with a three-to-five year horizon who wants Indian infrastructure exposure with contracted cash flows and can tolerate a 15% drawdown and a 1.3% free-cash-flow yield. **Not suitable for a trader looking for a breakout**, because the chart has not given one, and not suitable for an investor who cannot hold through a governance headline, because this company generates them. --- ## 18. Exchange Filings & Material Announcements The exchange record for the last 120 days holds **20 filings** that the screening tooling classifies as price-moving by category, against **1,471** in the company's full history; a further **17 routine items** (depository certificates, trading-window closures, AGM and voting paperwork, analyst-meet notices) are suppressed by default. Note that six of the twenty are analyst-meet scheduling notices, which the classification counts as material but which carry no information. The six that do carry information are below, newest first. | Date | Filing | What it says | |---|---|---| | **22 Oct 2026** | Incorporation of step-down subsidiary — [Indian Ocean Gateway Terminal, Oman](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/rkbhagia_22102026151039_SEIntimation_Oman.pdf) | Adani International Ports Holdings Pte Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary, incorporated Indian Ocean Gateway Terminal in the Sultanate of Oman on 21 October 2026 for "offshore operations locally". Capital OMR 5,00,000 (100 shares of OMR 5,000). Pre-operational; no asset, no revenue | | **06 Oct 2026** | Incorporation of wholly owned subsidiary — [Paradip Mahanadi Terminal Ltd](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/rkbhagia_06102026183718_SEIntimationParadip.pdf) | SPV for "development and operations of two dry bulk berths at Paradip Port, Odisha", incorporated 6 October 2026, authorised and paid-up capital ₹5 lakh. Follows the 9 September 2026 win of the 18 MMT Paradip berths. No commissioning date disclosed | | **30 Sep 2026** | Media release — [Colombo West International Terminal doubles capacity to 3.2 million TEUs](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/rkbhagia_30092026224020_APSEZSEIntimation30092026.pdf) | USD 750 million Phase II inaugurated by Sri Lankan PM Dr Harini Amarasuriya; capacity from 1.6 to 3.2 million TEUs; 2 million TEUs handled in 18 months; three ULCVs can berth simultaneously; developed with John Keells Holdings and the Sri Lanka Ports Authority under a 35-year BOT. This is the quarter's single largest international capacity event | | **29 Jul 2026** | [Financial results for the quarter ended 30 June 2026](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/rkbhagia_29072026123138_OutcomeofBoardMeeting.pdf) | Revenue ₹10,821 Cr, EBITDA ₹6,541 Cr, PAT ₹3,650 Cr, EPS ₹15.71. The filing behind Sections 3.2, 4 and 11 | | **29 Jul 2026** | [Press release and investor presentation for Q1 FY27](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/rkbhagia_29072026124451_IntimationofPRandIP.pdf) | Segment detail (domestic ports ₹6,964 Cr at 74% margin; international ₹1,747 Cr at 41.8%; logistics ₹1,173 Cr; marine ₹901 Cr), FY27 guidance (revenue ₹43,000–45,000 Cr, EBITDA ₹25,000–26,000 Cr, capex ₹12,000–14,000 Cr, net debt/EBITDA up to 2.5x), gross debt ₹56,776 Cr, cash ₹12,428 Cr, and the Ambition 2031 targets (19% revenue CAGR, 18% EBITDA CAGR, 1,000 MMT, 200+ vessels, 16 MMLPs, 12 mn sq ft of warehousing) | | **16 Jul 2026** | [Credit rating — ICRA reaffirmation](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/rkbhagia_16072026171903_SEINTIMATION.pdf) | ICRA reaffirmed [ICRA]AAA (Stable) on ₹10,020 Cr of long-term fund and non-fund-based facilities and ₹17,000 Cr of non-convertible debentures, and [ICRA]A1+ on ₹6,700 Cr of commercial paper. Routine in outcome, but the ₹33,720 Cr of rated facilities it covers is the size of the debt stack | **What the six collectively imply:** the company is in a capacity-commissioning and entity-formation phase rather than a transaction phase. Three of the six filings are incorporation notices for vehicles (Oman, Paradip SPV) or commissioning releases (Colombo), one is the results, one is the guidance, one is the rating. **There is no acquisition, no capital raise and no disposal in the last 120 days** — the two largest capital events of the year, the NQXT share issue and the Vizhinjam stake sale to MSC, both pre-date this window and both need to be read in Section 10 rather than here. Two things a reader scanning this record should notice. First, **the Colombo Phase II release is dated 30 September but the terminal was inaugurated on 30 September and reported by the press on 1–2 October** — the filing is the primary, and the press coverage added the context on Colombo's 13 million TEU target. Second, **the Oman and Paradip filings are shells with capital of ₹5 lakh and OMR 5,00,000 respectively**; neither represents capital committed to a project, and neither should be read as an investment announcement. The primary documents behind Sections 8 and 17, as filed with NSE: - [Q1 FY27 earnings call transcript](https://www.adaniports.com/-/media/project/ports/investor/transcripts/transcript.pdf) — 29 July 2026 (hosted by the company, not NSE) - [NQXT completion and preferential allotment, EGM notice](https://www.adaniports.com/-/media/Project/Ports/CorporateGovernance/EGM/EGM-Notice-17042025.pdf) — 17 April 2025 - [APSEZ FY26 results release](https://www.adani.com/newsroom/media-releases/apsez-fy26-revenue-grows-25-outperforms-guidance) — 30 April 2026 - [APSEZ Q1 FY27 results release](https://www.adani.com/newsroom/media-releases/apsez-delivers-19percent-ebitda-growth-in-q1-fy27) — 29 July 2026 - [Vizhinjam / MSC TiL partnership release](https://www.adani.com/newsroom/media-releases/apsez-and-msc-group-deepen-long-term-partnership) — 30 June 2026 - [Colombo West International Terminal Phase II release](https://www.adani.com/newsroom/media-releases/apsezs-colombo-west-international-terminal-doubles-capacity-to-32-million-teus) — 1 October 2026 --- ## 19. Disclaimer & Sources **Disclaimer.** This is educational research, not investment advice. It is written by an AI model from public sources and published under the byline Pulkit Goel; it is not a substitute for advice from a SEBI-registered investment adviser. The author holds no position in Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone. Prices, ratios and filed figures are as of the dates stated and change daily. **Q2 and H1 FY27 results are due on 28 October 2026 and were not available when this note was written** — every forward statement here is a Q1-based projection that the results will confirm or refute within days. Four judgements in this note are opinion rather than arithmetic: that the 62.86% delivery average indicates accumulation rather than a transfer between institutions, that the Krishnapatnam customer-outage explanation is credible, that the governance discount rather than the growth is what the multiple is pricing, and that ₹1,620–1,680 is the right accumulation zone. The article states what evidence would overturn each. **Data notes and disclosures** - **Price and volume** are from the NSE bhavcopy for the nine sessions from 12 to 23 October 2026 and from the daily price series. The last close of ₹1,702.70 matches the exchange. The intraday ₹1,730 quoted in Section 1 is from Screener.in at 11:26 IST on 26 October 2026 and is not used in any calculation. - **There was no trading session on 20 October 2026.** The NSE bhavcopy archive serves the previous session's file when queried for that date, which is why the file for both 19 and 20 October returns the 19 October row. The delivery table is deduplicated on (date, close, volume) and contains nine sessions, not ten. - **Delivery percentages** are read from the bhavcopy `DELIV_PER` column and compared against both the stock's own nine-session average (62.86%) and the NSE large-cap baseline of approximately 37%. **The 12 October session — 1,09,01,705 shares at 93.31% delivery — is not attributed to any counterparty**, because no block or bulk deal was reported for that date. - **Technicals are computed, not vendor-supplied.** TradingView's NSE panel was not retrievable in this run. RSI (14), Stochastic (14,3,3), CCI (20), ADX (14), MACD (12,26,9), Momentum (10), ATR (14), the EMA and SMA ladder, the pivot highs and lows and the relative-strength figures were all calculated from the NSE daily series to 23 October 2026. A separate yfinance-based script returned RSI 42.7 on the live intraday price, consistent with 42.52 on the completed close. **Small differences against TradingView are expected because of smoothing conventions; none of the six indicators is estimated or interpolated.** - **Screener.in**, consolidated view, fetched 26 October 2026: annual P&L FY15–FY26, thirteen quarters to June 2026, balance sheet FY15–FY26, cash flow FY15–FY26, ratios, shareholding March 2024–September 2026, and the published pros and cons. Sections 3, 4, 5, 6, 11.1 and 14 are built on this data set. Screener's shareholding columns are labelled by quarter-end and are reproduced as labelled; the annual columns are 31 March year-ends. - **Share count:** 230.50 Cr shares is derived as equity capital of ₹461 Cr divided by face value of ₹2. It reconciles to market capitalisation (₹1,702.70 × 230.50 Cr = ₹3,92,472 Cr against Screener's ₹3,98,643 Cr at the ₹1,730 intraday price) and to EPS (₹12,782 Cr FY26 PAT ÷ 230.50 Cr = ₹55.46 against the reported ₹55.58). - **The forward EPS figures in Section 11 are this note's own model, not company guidance and not a broker estimate**, with the exception of the JM Financial line, which is labelled. The model holds depreciation at ₹6,850 Cr (Q1 FY27 ₹1,711 Cr annualised), interest at ₹4,650 Cr (Q1 FY27 ₹1,087 Cr annualised, adjusted for rising debt), other income at ₹2,800 Cr (FY26 ₹2,152 Cr; Q1 FY27 ₹853 Cr annualised would be higher), and tax at 15% (the Q1 FY27 actual). **Each of those four assumptions is disclosed so the reader can substitute their own.** The sensitivity that matters most is tax: at 25% instead of 15%, FY27 EPS falls from ₹61.95 to ₹54.65 and the forward multiple rises from 27.5x to 31.2x. - **The fiscal-year labels are Indian** (FY27 = year ending March 2027; Q1 FY27 = quarter ended 30 June 2026). Screener labels quarters by calendar month and they have been converted. - **Management-sourced figures** — FY27 guidance, the Ambition 2031 targets (19% revenue CAGR, 18% EBITDA CAGR, 1% ROCE improvement a year, 1,000 MMT by December 2030, 200+ vessels, 16 MMLPs, 12 million sq ft of warehousing, 2,000 owned trucks), the 74% domestic ports margin, the 41.8% international margin, the ₹1,350 Cr FY26 EBITDA expectation for NQXT, and the 5.7 million TEU Vizhinjam target — are company representations, not audited figures, and are labelled as such. - **The FY26 RoCE of 16% is the company's own figure and excludes NQXT**, which was consolidated only from Q4 FY26. Screener's 14.1% is a different calculation on the full-year balance sheet. Both are quoted with their source because they disagree. - **The FY31 valuation ladder in Section 11.7 assumes net debt stays flat at ₹44,348 Cr.** That is deliberately generous to the bull case, because it ignores the ₹90,000–1,00,000 Cr of capex the company has guided to, which will be partly debt-funded. A rising net debt would reduce every price in that table. - **The Related Party disclosure for NQXT is not in the filings reviewed for this note.** The ₹17,244 Cr consideration, the ₹1,199 issue price and the 14,38,20,153 share count are from the EGM notice dated 17 April 2025 and the completion disclosure of 23 December 2025. The annual report for FY26 would carry the full related-party note; it was not retrieved, and the article's governance assessment in Section 10.2 rests on the transaction terms as disclosed rather than on an independent valuation. - **Not obtained:** the Q1 FY27 segment capital-employed schedule, the FY26 annual report's related-party note and contingent-liability schedule, the FY27 first-half volume mix by commodity, the March 2026 quarter's balance-sheet detail, and any trade-tape detail that would identify the counterparties behind the 12 October delivery print. Where those are missing, the article says so rather than filling the gap. - **No number in this article is invented.** Every figure traces to one of: Screener.in, an NSE filing linked in Section 18, a company media release, the Q1 FY27 earnings call transcript, the NSE bhavcopy, Trendlyne, or arithmetic performed on those inputs and shown. *This analysis is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making investment decisions.*