---
title: "Anant Raj Ltd — Deep Dive Analysis"
ticker: "ANANTRAJ"
date: "2026-06-28"
tags: ["deep-dive","fundamental","real-estate","data-centers"]
summary: "Deep-dive on Anant Raj — zero-debt real estate developer pivoting to data centers (28 MW operational, 357 MW target). 80% PAT CAGR, ₹25,000 Cr Haryana DC MoU, demerger potential. PEG 0.63 but ED investigation overhang. Verdict: CAUTION — strong fundamentals, wait for technical clarity."
model: "deepseek-chat"
---

# Anant Raj Ltd (ANANTRAJ) — Deep Dive Analysis

**Analysis Date:** 28 June 2026
**Data Source:** Screener.in (Consolidated View) | TradingView | NSE Bhavcopy | Tavily News
**Model:** deepseek-chat
**CMP:** ₹523 | **Market Cap:** ₹18,805 Cr

---

## 1. Quick Snapshot

| KPI | Value | KPI | Value |
|-----|-------|-----|-------|
| **CMP** | ₹523 | **Market Cap** | ₹18,805 Cr |
| **Stock P/E** | 33.9x | **Industry P/E** | 27.6x |
| **Forward P/E (FY27E)** | ~25x | **PEG Ratio** | 0.63 |
| **ROCE** | 12.1% | **ROE** | 11.2% |
| **Sales (FY26)** | ₹2,512 Cr | **PAT (FY26)** | ₹557 Cr |
| **EPS (FY26)** | ₹15.42 | **Book Value** | ₹161 |
| **Debt/Equity** | 0.12 | **Debtor Days** | 25.9 |
| **52W High/Low** | ₹744 / ₹403 | **Dividend Yield** | 0.14% |
| **Piotroski Score** | 4/9 | **Earnings Yield** | 3.63% |
| **Graham Number** | ₹236 | **Free Float Mkt Cap** | ~₹7,650 Cr |

---

## 2. Business Overview

Anant Raj Ltd, incorporated in 1985, is a Delhi-NCR based real estate developer with a rich legacy spanning over five decades. The company has successfully developed over 11.3 MSF of real estate across residential, commercial, IT parks, and hospitality sectors. In recent years, it has made a strategic pivot into **data centre and cloud services** via its wholly-owned subsidiary Anant Raj Cloud Pvt. Ltd. (ARCPL).

**Key Business Segments:**

- **Real Estate Development:** Residential townships, group housing (luxury segment in Sector 63A, Gurugram), commercial complexes, IT parks, and hospitality
- **Data Centre & Cloud Services:** 28 MW operational IT load (21 MW Manesar + 7 MW Panchkula); targeting 357 MW total by FY2032
- **Rental Income:** Commercial and hospitality assets generating steady annuity income

**Key Highlights:**
- Zero net debt company (5th consecutive quarter)
- Land bank of ~1,038 acres in NCR (fully paid)
- Sovereign cloud provider (Ashok Cloud) — MeitY empanelled
- Strategic partnership with Submer (Spain) for liquid-cooled AI data centres
- Investment of ₹20,000-₹25,000 Cr planned for DC expansion via MoU with Haryana government

---

## 3. Financial Performance

### 3A. Annual P&L (Consolidated, ₹ Cr)

| Particulars | Mar'22 | Mar'23 | Mar'24 | Mar'25 | Mar'26 |
|-------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| **Sales** | 462 | 957 | 1,483 | 2,060 | 2,512 |
| **Expenses** | 386 | 760 | 1,149 | 1,568 | 1,856 |
| **Operating Profit** | 76 | 197 | 334 | 492 | 656 |
| **OPM %** | 16% | 21% | 23% | 24% | **26%** |
| **Other Income** | 39 | 48 | 37 | 40 | 67 |
| **Interest** | 27 | 32 | 35 | 11 | 12 |
| **Depreciation** | 17 | 17 | 18 | 30 | 49 |
| **PBT** | 72 | 197 | 319 | 491 | 662 |
| **Tax %** | 32% | 27% | 17% | 14% | 16% |
| **Net Profit** | 53 | 149 | 271 | 426 | 557 |
| **EPS (₹)** | 1.86 | 4.73 | 7.63 | 12.40 | 15.42 |
| **Dividend Payout %** | 6% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 6% |

**Key Takeaways:**
- **Sales CAGR (FY22-FY26): 52.7%** — exceptional revenue growth driven by strong real estate execution
- **OPM expanded from 16% → 26%** — operating leverage kicking in as scale increases
- **PAT CAGR (FY22-FY26): 80.3%** — even more impressive, aided by falling interest costs and lower tax rate
- **Interest cost dropped sharply** from ₹35 Cr (FY24) to ₹12 Cr (FY26) — reflects debt reduction
- **Dividend payout stable** at 6% — conservative, funds being ploughed into DC expansion

### 3B. Quarterly Trend (₹ Cr)

| Quarter | Sales | OP | OPM% | NP | EPS |
|---------|-------|----|------|----|-----|
| Mar'23 | 280 | 74 | 26% | 48 | 1.52 |
| Jun'23 | 316 | 60 | 19% | 50 | 1.56 |
| Sep'23 | 332 | 80 | 24% | 60 | 1.85 |
| Dec'23 | 392 | 90 | 23% | 71 | 2.22 |
| Mar'24 | 443 | 104 | 24% | 84 | 2.29 |
| Jun'24 | 472 | 103 | 22% | 91 | 2.66 |
| Sep'24 | 513 | 113 | 22% | 106 | 3.09 |
| Dec'24 | 535 | 134 | 25% | 110 | 3.23 |
| Mar'25 | 541 | 142 | 26% | 119 | 3.46 |
| Jun'25 | 592 | 151 | 25% | 126 | 3.67 |
| Sep'25 | 631 | 168 | 27% | 138 | 4.02 |
| Dec'25 | 642 | 170 | 26% | 144 | 4.01 |
| **Mar'26** | **647** | **167** | **26%** | **149** | **4.07** |

**Key Takeaways:**
- **Consistent QoQ growth** for 12 consecutive quarters — remarkably steady execution
- **Sales grew 131%** from Mar'23 (₹280 Cr) → Mar'26 (₹647 Cr)
- **OPM consistently in 22-27% range** — stable with mild improvement
- **Q4 FY26:** Sales ₹647 Cr, NP ₹149 Cr, EPS ₹4.07 — slight sequential dip in OP (₹170→167) but solid YoY
- **FY26 full year EPS:** ₹15.42 implies ~31% YoY growth over FY25's ₹12.40

---

## 4. Balance Sheet (₹ Cr)

| Particulars | Mar'22 | Mar'23 | Mar'24 | Mar'25 | Mar'26 |
|-------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| Equity Capital | 59 | 65 | 68 | 69 | 72 |
| Reserves | 2,580 | 2,760 | 3,588 | 4,092 | 5,717 |
| **Net Worth** | **2,639** | **2,825** | **3,656** | **4,161** | **5,789** |
| Borrowings | 1,283 | 1,079 | 627 | 482 | 681 |
| Other Liabilities | 463 | 452 | 585 | 592 | 399 |
| **Total Liabilities** | **4,385** | **4,357** | **4,868** | **5,235** | **6,869** |
| Fixed Assets | 1,310 | 1,305 | 1,314 | 1,367 | 1,793 |
| CWIP | 48 | 18 | 22 | 36 | 39 |
| Investments | 460 | 460 | 302 | 311 | 183 |
| Other Assets | 2,567 | 2,573 | 3,231 | 3,520 | 4,853 |
| **Total Assets** | **4,385** | **4,357** | **4,868** | **5,235** | **6,869** |

**Key Takeaways:**
- **Net Worth grew 119%** in 4 years (₹2,639 Cr → ₹5,789 Cr) — strong earnings retention
- **Borrowings minimal** at ₹681 Cr vs Net Worth of ₹5,789 Cr — D/E of just 0.12
- **Fixed Assets jumped** to ₹1,793 Cr (up from ₹1,367 Cr) — DC capex kicking in
- **Other Assets ₹4,853 Cr** — largely inventory (land bank, WIP projects) and receivables
- **Balance sheet is fortress-grade** — near zero net debt, massive equity buffer

---

## 5. Cash Flow Analysis (₹ Cr)

| Particulars | Mar'22 | Mar'23 | Mar'24 | Mar'25 | Mar'26 |
|-------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| **CFO** | 423 | 33 | -26 | 97 | -435 |
| **CFI** | 31 | -20 | 181 | -72 | -231 |
| **CFF** | -461 | 2 | 116 | 1 | 1,235 |
| **Net Cash Flow** | -7 | 15 | 271 | 25 | 569 |
| **Free Cash Flow** | 466 | -5 | -55 | 20 | -796 |
| **CFO/OP** | 588% | 43% | 9% | 34% | -50% |

**Key Takeaways:**
- **FY26 CFO negative** (-₹435 Cr) — reflects heavy working capital build-up for DC expansion and real estate inventory
- **FCF deeply negative** (-₹796 Cr) — expected given ₹20,000 Cr DC investment plan
- **CFF of ₹1,235 Cr** in FY26 — includes QIP proceeds of ₹1,100 Cr raised for DC funding
- **Cash conversion cycle is elongating** — a watch item as DC capex scales
- **Historical CFO/OP shows lumpiness** — real estate revenue recognition is milestone-based, not smooth

---

## 6. Shareholding Pattern (Corrected Mar'XX labels)

| Category | Mar'22 | Mar'23 | Mar'24 | Mar'25 | Mar'26 |
|----------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| **Promoters** | 64.99% | 63.21% | 60.01% | 60.16% | **57.41%** |
| **FIIs** | 6.35% | 10.73% | 11.52% | 12.88% | **10.88%** |
| **DIIs** | 0.07% | 0.09% | 3.63% | 6.57% | **4.83%** |
| **Public** | 28.59% | 25.97% | 24.83% | 20.38% | **26.89%** |
| **Total Shareholders** | 54,998 | 48,465 | 63,832 | 2,12,034 | **3,68,350** |

**Key Takeaways:**
- **Promoter holding declined from 65% → 57.41%** over 4 years — a concern flagged by Screener (-5.81% in 3 years)
- **FIIs peaked at 12.88% (Mar'25)** but pulled back to 10.88% — some profit booking at higher levels
- **DIIs dropped from 6.57% → 4.83%** — institutional caution
- **Public holding surged** from 20.38% → 26.89% — retail interest increased significantly
- **Shareholder base exploded** from 48K to 3,68,350 in 4 years — massive retail participation
- **Zero promoter pledge** — no margin call risk

---

## 7. Order Book & Revenue Visibility

### Real Estate Pipeline (Sector 63A, Gurugram)
| Project | Area (acres) | Saleable Area (MSF) | Status |
|---------|-------------|--------------------|--------|
| The Estate Residences (GH1) | — | ~2.0 | Ahead of schedule, delivering |
| Estate Floors Phase IV | 6.075 | 0.50 | RERA received, launching |
| Group Housing 2 | 5.09 | 0.90 | License + approvals received, RERA expected Q1 FY27 |
| Group Housing 3 | 6.38 | 1.20 | Advanced licensing stage |
| GH Phase V | 9.12 | ~1.0 | Approvals expected Q2 FY27 |
| **Total Pipeline** | **26.7+** | **~5.6 MSF** | — |

### Data Centre Capacity Roadmap
| Milestone | Capacity (MW) | Timeline |
|-----------|---------------|----------|
| Current Operational | 28 MW | Achieved |
| 63 MW Target | 35 MW addition | Dec 2026 |
| 117 MW Target | 54 MW addition | FY2028 |
| 357 MW Target | 240 MW addition | FY2032 |

### Data Centre Revenue Visibility
- **Co-location:** ₹90 lakh/month/MW at 75% EBITDA margin
- **Cloud:** ₹1.2 Cr/month/MW at 75% EBITDA margin
- **FY26 DC revenue:** ₹176.49 Cr (₹74.51 Cr in Q4 alone)
- **Management guided INR 1,200 Cr revenue potential** from 63 MW at full occupancy

---

## 8. Management Commentary

**From Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call (Nov 2025):**

> "Fifth quarter in a row, even prior to the QIP, the net debt of the company has been below ₹50 crores. So we almost call ourselves a **zero debt company**, and we maintain that for the future also."

> "We have been able to deliver 28 MW. On 1st and 2nd of August, we did a showcase... Bharat Built from Soil to Server... We invited investors and analysts, and it was very encouraging."

> "Demand as of now is **not a challenge**. The bottleneck till we had done the QIP was the funds. Fortunately, we have that now. Today, sovereign cloud has a very niche demand for itself, and this demand is only growing."

> "India today generates 28% of the data in the world and houses only 1%. With data localization laws coming in, this data eventually has to come back to the country. We do not see any **dearth of demand**."

**Potential Demerger:**
The Board constituted a committee to evaluate merger/demerger options to segregate Real Estate Development and Data Center Services into independent entities. This could unlock significant value.

---

## 9. TradingView Technical Analysis

**Summary:** 🔴 **SELL Bias** on Daily Timeframe

### Oscillators (11 indicators)

| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|-----------|-------|--------|
| RSI(14) | 48.82 | 🟡 Neutral |
| Stoch %K(14,3,3) | 20.16 | 🟡 Neutral |
| CCI(20) | -59.26 | 🟡 Neutral |
| ADX(14) | 9.15 | 🟡 **Neutral (Weak trend)** |
| Awesome Oscillator | 1.36 | 🟢 Buy |
| Momentum(10) | 9.30 | 🟢 Buy |
| MACD Level(12,26) | 2.42 | 🔴 Sell |
| Stoch RSI Fast(3,3,14,14) | 15.29 | 🟡 Neutral |
| Williams %R(14) | -74.32 | 🟡 Neutral |
| Bull Bear Power | -2.37 | 🟢 Buy |
| Ultimate Osc(7,14,28) | 37.52 | 🟡 Neutral |
| **Composite** | **1 Sell, 7 Neutral, 3 Buy** | **🟡 NEUTRAL** |

### Moving Averages (15 indicators)

| MA | Value | Signal |
|----|-------|--------|
| EMA(10) | 528.23 | 🔴 Sell |
| SMA(10) | 529.88 | 🔴 Sell |
| EMA(20) | 527.92 | 🔴 Sell |
| SMA(20) | 536.09 | 🔴 Sell |
| EMA(30) | 524.91 | 🔴 Sell |
| SMA(30) | 522.86 | 🔴 Sell |
| EMA(50) | 519.92 | 🟢 Buy |
| SMA(50) | 518.79 | 🟢 Buy |
| EMA(100) | 521.16 | 🟢 Buy |
| SMA(100) | 509.95 | 🟢 Buy |
| EMA(200) | 533.98 | 🔴 Sell |
| SMA(200) | 551.79 | 🔴 Sell |
| Ichimoku Base(9,26,52,26) | 535.40 | 🟡 Neutral |
| VWMA(20) | 548.53 | 🔴 Sell |
| Hull MA(9) | 524.03 | 🔴 Sell |
| **Composite** | **10 Sell, 1 Neutral, 4 Buy** | **🔴 SELL** |

### Key Observations
- **Current price ₹522.55** sits below 200 DMA (₹551.79) — structurally bearish
- **ADX at 9.15** — extremely low, indicating **no defined trend**
- **Price crossing EMA(50)/EMA(100)** buy levels suggests medium-term support
- **Short-term MAs (10,20,30)** all above price — near-term bearish pressure
- **Price down 29.7% from 52W high** of ₹744 — significant correction from Oct 2025 peak
- **Hull MA sell signal** — most sensitive indicator, first to hint at exhaustion

---

## 10. Delivery Data & Block Deals

### NSE Bhavcopy 10-Day Delivery Analysis

| Date | Close | Volume | Delivery Qty | Del% | Signal |
|------|-------|--------|-------------|------|--------|
| 12-Jun | 534.75 | 2,003,733 | 821,531 | **41.0%** 🟢 | Accumulation |
| 13-Jun | — | — | — | — | Holiday |
| 15-Jun | 537.30 | 1,630,755 | 782,762 | **48.0%** 🟢 | Strong Acc. |
| 16-Jun | 540.70 | 1,601,056 | 752,496 | **47.0%** 🟢 | Strong Acc. |
| 17-Jun | 530.90 | 1,844,223 | 811,458 | **44.0%** 🟢 | Accumulation |
| 18-Jun | 528.75 | 1,566,282 | 721,454 | **46.1%** 🟢 | Strong Acc. |
| 19-Jun | 520.20 | 1,906,713 | 730,271 | **38.3%** 🟡 | Neutral |
| 20-Jun | — | — | — | — | Weekend |
| 22-Jun | 532.30 | 1,390,063 | 522,264 | **37.6%** 🟡 | Neutral |
| 23-Jun | 522.80 | 1,560,961 | 580,677 | **37.2%** 🟡 | Neutral |
| 24-Jun | 528.60 | 1,269,744 | 444,410 | **35.0%** 🟡 | Neutral |
| 25-Jun | 522.55 | 1,046,591 | 328,630 | **31.4%** 🟡 | Neutral |

**Analysis:**
- **Avg Delivery %: 38.2%** — moderate
- **Accumulation Days (>40%): 4/10** (Jun 12, 15, 16, 17, 18) — strong mid-June buying
- **Distribution Days (<30%): 0/10** — no selling pressure
- **Volume declining** — latest day volume 48% below 10-day avg
- **Price fell from 537 → 522** despite strong delivery — indicates institutional nibbling but not enough to arrest decline
- **Last 4 sessions neutral** (31-38% delivery) — market indecisive

### Block/Bulk Deals (Calendar 2026 Only)

| Date | Client | Action | Qty | Avg Price |
|------|--------|--------|-----|-----------|
| 01-Feb-2026 | HRTI Private Limited | **Buy** | 1,912,421 | ₹542.47 |
| 01-Feb-2026 | HRTI Private Limited | **Sell** | 1,924,154 | ₹543.12 |

**Interpretation:** HRTI bought and sold nearly identical quantities at the same price — this is likely a **prop desk/arbitrage trade**, not genuine long-term accumulation. No genuine institutional buying/selling in CY2026.

### Promoter Pledge: **Zero** ✅

---

## 11. Forward PE Valuation

### Multi-Source EPS Estimates

| Source | FY27E EPS | Forward P/E at ₹523 | 
|--------|-----------|---------------------|
| **SimplyWallSt consensus** | ~₹20.0 (29% YoY growth) | **26.2x** |
| **Alpha Spread / Wall St** | ~₹20.5 | **25.5x** |
| **Motilal Oswal (Jan'26)** | Est. ~₹19-21 | **25-27.5x** |
| **Historical run-rate (Q4 annualized)** | ₹16.3 | **32.1x** |
| **Trendlyne consensus** | ~₹19.5 | **26.8x** |

### Scenario Analysis

| Scenario | FY27E EPS | Fwd P/E | Implied Price | Upside/Downside |
|----------|-----------|---------|---------------|-----------------|
| **Conservative (15% growth)** | ₹17.7 | 33.9x (current P/E) | ₹600 | +14.7% |
| **Moderate (25% growth)** | ₹19.3 | 30x | ₹579 | +10.7% |
| **Analyst Consensus (30% growth)** | ₹20.0 | 25x | ₹500 | -4.4% |
| **Optimistic (35% growth)** | ₹20.8 | 28x | ₹582 | +11.3% |
| **Bear (10% growth)** | ₹17.0 | 33.9x | ₹576 | +10.1% |

### Credibility Check
Anant Raj is at **33.9x P/E** — not extremely high, but above the industry P/E of 27.6x. The premium is justified by:
- Zero-debt balance sheet
- 80% PAT CAGR over 4 years
- Data centre pivot adding high-margin annuity revenue
- Massive land bank providing long-term visibility

**PEG ratio of 0.63** suggests undervaluation on a growth-adjusted basis. However, PEG is backward-looking — FY26's 31% PAT growth may moderate as the real estate cycle normalizes.

### Key Insight
At 33.9x trailing P/E and 25-27x forward P/E, the stock is **reasonably valued** for its growth trajectory. The DC business (75% EBITDA margins) is not yet fully reflected in earnings, which means **earnings quality is improving** — a re-rating catalyst.

---

## 12. Recent News & Catalysts

### 🟢 Positive

| Date | Headline | Source |
|------|----------|--------|
| 01-Jun-2026 | Signed ₹25,000 Cr MoU with Haryana govt for DC/cloud expansion | CNBC TV18 |
| 11-May-2026 | Q4 FY26 PAT +25% YoY to ₹149 Cr; dividend ₹1/share recommended | Upstox |
| 11-May-2026 | Board formed committee to evaluate **demerger** of Real Estate & DC businesses | Multibagg |
| 08-Feb-2026 | Strategic partnership with **Submer** (Spain) for liquid-cooled AI data centres | Anant Raj Media |
| 22-Jan-2026 | Motilal Oswal **Buy** with target ₹663 (Nov: target ₹793) | Trendlyne |
| Jun-2026 | Price target consensus ₹716.67 (37.8% upside) | Trendlyne/Consensus |
| 2026 Budget | Tax holiday proposed for data centre industry (not yet enacted) | Multibagg |

### 🟡 Neutral

| Date | Headline | Source |
|------|----------|--------|
| — | Nomura trimmed target ₹700→₹650 but maintained **Buy** | Trendlyne |
| — | 357 MW DC target moved from 2030 → **2032** timeline | Earnings Call |
| — | Anish Sarin appointed as Whole-time Director (11-May-2026) | Upstox |

### 🔴 Negative/Risks

| Date | Headline | Source |
|------|----------|--------|
| — | ⚠️ **ED raids** in money laundering case (stock fell 9%) | Google News |
| — | Stock **29.7% below 52W high** (₹744→₹523) | NSE |
| — | Promoter holding down **-5.81% in 3 years** — continued dilution | Screener |
| — | **ADX at 9.15** — no technical trend, sideways/drifting | TradingView |
| — | Below **200 DMA** (₹551.79) — structurally bearish | TradingView |
| — | Low ROE of 10.2% over 3 years — capital-heavy business | Screener |

---

## 13. Key Risks

| Risk | Severity | Details |
|------|----------|---------|
| **DC Execution Risk** | 🔴 High | ₹20,000 Cr investment plan — any delay in capacity commissioning or leasing could strain balance sheet |
| **ED Investigation** | 🔴 High | Potential regulatory/tax liability; reputational damage |
| **Promoter Dilution** | 🟡 Medium | Down from 65% → 57.4%; could impact long-term alignment |
| **Real Estate Cyclicality** | 🟡 Medium | NCR real estate demand is macro-sensitive; rising interest rates could dampen demand |
| **Negative CFO/FCF** | 🟡 Medium | FY26 CFO -₹435 Cr, FCF -₹796 Cr — heavy working capital needs |
| **Technical Weakness** | 🟡 Medium | Below 200 DMA, ADX near zero — no clear trend |
| **Competition in DC** | 🟡 Medium | Reliance, Adani, NTT, CtrlS, Sify — intense competition |
| **Valuation Atrophy** | 🟡 Medium | At 33.9x P/E, any earnings miss could lead to 25-30% correction |
| **Low ROE (10.2%)** | 🟢 Low | Capital-intensive business model; improving with DC annuity |

---

## 14. Screener Pros & Cons

### Pros
✅ Company has delivered **good profit growth of 120% CAGR** over last 5 years

### Cons
❌ Stock is trading at **3.25x its book value**
❌ Company has a **low return on equity of 10.2%** over last 3 years
❌ **Promoter holding has decreased** over last 3 years: -5.81%

---

## 15. Bull vs Bear Case

### Bull Case 🐂
1. **Zero-debt, cash-rich balance sheet** — fortress-level financial strength
2. **Data centre pivot** — 75% EBITDA margin business with ₹176 Cr revenue already flowing
3. **₹25,000 Cr Haryana MoU** — massive scale ambition in DC/cloud
4. **Potential demerger** — could unlock significant value for shareholders
5. **Land bank of 1,038 acres** — provides revenue visibility for decades
6. **12 consecutive quarters of QoQ revenue growth** — remarkable consistency
7. **PEG 0.63** — appears undervalued for its growth rate
8. **MeitY empanelment as Sovereign Cloud** — government contracts pipeline

### Bear Case 🐻
1. **ED investigation** — unresolved legal risk could weigh on sentiment
2. **Promoter dilution** — steady decline in promoter holding is a governance concern
3. **₹20,000 Cr DC investment** — massive execution risk for a ₹18,800 Cr market cap company
4. **FIIs reducing stake** — from 12.88% → 10.88% in single quarter
5. **Negative FCF** of -₹796 Cr in FY26 — DC capex will keep FCF negative for years
6. **Technical breakdown** — below 200 DMA, ADX near zero
7. **Real estate concentration** — NCR-focused, vulnerable to local regulatory changes

---

## 16. Final Verdict

### **🟡 CAUTION — Mixed Signals, Wait for Technical Clarity**

Anant Raj presents one of the most compelling **real estate + data centre** stories in Indian markets. The fundamentals are strong: zero-debt balance sheet, 80% PAT CAGR, improving margins, and a clear DC roadmap with government backing.

However, the stock is **technically weak** (below 200 DMA, ADX near zero, 29.7% off highs), facing **ED investigation headwinds**, and undergoing **promoter dilution**. The DC story, while exciting, is a **long-term narrative** that will take years to fully play out.

**Entry Zone:** ₹470-500 (near support levels and 52W low of ₹403)
**Suitable For:** Long-term investors (3-5 year horizon) with high risk appetite
**Not Suitable For:** Short-term/swing traders or conservative investors

**Key catalysts to watch:**
1. Demerger announcement → potential value unlocking
2. ED investigation resolution → removes overhang
3. 63 MW DC commissioning by Dec 2026 → earnings inflection
4. Upcoming luxury launches (Sector 63A) → revenue visibility

---

## 17. Swing Trade Assessment — Full 25-Point Checklist

### 1. Price Position
**CMP ₹523 vs 52W High ₹744 | Distance from 52W High: -29.7%**
The stock is trading **29.7% below its 52-week high** of ₹744 (Oct 2025). The 52W low is ₹403 (Mar 2025).
**✗ FAIL** — Rule says "within 25% of 52W high or at ATH." At -29.7%, this misses the mark. Price has corrected significantly and is nowhere near ATH territory.

### 2. Trend
**Daily chart shows: Lower Highs from ₹744 (Oct'25) → ₹595 (Apr'26) → ₹545 (Jun'26). Support at ₹403 (Mar'26 low).**
The stock has been making **lower highs and lower lows** since October 2025. The downtrend from ₹744 is intact. No higher highs or higher lows visible.
**✗ FAIL** — Clear downtrend, not an uptrend.

### 3. Volume Characteristics
**10-day avg volume: 16,00,292 | Latest volume: 10,46,591 (-34.6% vs avg)**
Volume has been **declining** over the past 10 trading sessions. Mid-June had some accumulation on volume but the last 4 sessions show reducing participation. No volume spike or expansion pattern.
**⚠️ CAUTION** — Volume quality is mediocre. No High Volume Yield or Expansion visible.

### 4. Clean Price Action
**Recent candles: ₹534 → ₹537 → ₹540 → ₹530 → ₹528 → ₹520 → ₹532 → ₹522 → ₹528 → ₹522**
Price action is **choppy** — the stock is oscillating between ₹520-540 with no clear direction. Small-bodied candles, no follow-through.
**✗ FAIL** — Choppy sideways range, erratic movement within a narrow band.

### 5. EMA Alignment
**CMP ₹522.55 | EMA(10): 528.23 | EMA(20): 527.92 | EMA(50): 519.92 | EMA(100): 521.16 | EMA(200): 533.98**
- CMP (522) < EMA(10) — price below short-term EMA ✗
- CMP (522) < EMA(200) 533 — below long-term EMA ✗
- EMAs are **flat/sideways** — no clear slope direction
**✗ FAIL** — The 9 > 20 > 50 > 200 alignment is broken. Opposite of what swing rules require.

### 6. Chart Pattern & Base Formation
**Pattern identified: Descending Triangle / Bear Flag**
From ₹744 high → a series of lower highs. The base from ₹403 to ₹545 could be a potential bottom, but recovery has failed at progressively lower levels (₹595 → ₹545).
**⚠️ CAUTION** — ~9-month basing zone, but not a classic cup-handle or flat base. Premature to call completed base.

### 7. Base Quality
**Base range ₹403-545 (~35% range):**
A 35% range base is **moderately deep**. Tightening is not visible. Accumulation was visible in mid-June but the last 4 sessions show neutral delivery.
**⚠️ CAUTION** — Base too wide and deep for quality swing setup. No clear tightening pattern.

### 8. ADR (Average Daily Range)
**Approximate ADR: ₹13-15 (~2.5-3% of CMP)**
**✅ PASS** — ADR is reasonable and tradeable.

### 9. Primary Uptrend
**Nifty 50 near highs, but Anant Raj is deeply underperforming.**
**✗ FAIL** — Stock has broken its primary uptrend. Trading against the stock's own trend is not recommended.

### 10. Follow One Trading Model
**This setup does not fit the classic swing model:**
- No breakout above a base ✅
- No uptrend confirmed ✗
- No EMA alignment ✗
**✅ PASS (by abstention)** — The correct decision per model is to NOT take this trade.

### 11. Sector Strength
**Realty index (Nifty Realty):** Corrected from highs. DLF, Oberoi, Godrej Properties all corrected 15-40%.
**⚠️ CAUTION** — Not a leading sector currently. No strong sector tailwind.

### 12. Tailwind
🟢 DC + cloud (structural growth), ₹25,000 Cr Haryana MoU, potential demerger
🔴 ED investigation (negative tailwind)
**⚠️ CAUTION** — Strong long-term tailwinds offset by ED overhang.

### 13. IPO Consideration
**Not an IPO.** Established company.
**✅ PASS** — N/A.

### 14. Price Action Strength
**Relative to peers: Similar to DLF (-36%), Oberoi (-27%), Brigade (-42%).**
**⚠️ CAUTION** — No outperformance. In-line with weak sector.

### 15. Sector & Government Boost
**DC tax holiday proposed in Union Budget 2026.** Digital India, data localization laws.
**✅ PASS** — Clear government tailwind for DC pivot.

### 16. Fundamental Quality
**Zero-debt | 80% PAT CAGR | 26% OPM | Net Worth ₹5,789 Cr**
**✅ PASS** — Fundamentals are stellar.

### 17. Quarterly Earnings Growth
**Q4 FY26: Sales +19.6% YoY | PAT +25.2% YoY | 12 consecutive quarterly growth**
**⚠️ CAUTION** — Growth is good (20-25%) but below the 30-50% threshold the checklist prefers.

### 18. Delivery Percentage
**10-day avg: 38.2% | Accumulation days: 4/10 | Distribution days: 0/10**
**⚠️ CAUTION** — Mid-June strong but recent trend weakening.

### 19. News & Institutional Activity
**Good news flow (MoU, Q4 beat, demerger) but ED overhang and FII/DII selling.**
**⚠️ CAUTION** — Mixed.

### 20. Risk Management
**No clear entry signal defined. If buying at support (₹470): SL ₹440 (-6.4%), T1 ₹545, T2 ₹595.**
**⚠️ CAUTION** — R/R is good but entry is NOT confirmed.

### 21. Market Environment
**Nifty strong but Anant Raj in downtrend — diverging from market.**
**✗ FAIL** — Stock failing to rally in a rising market is a red flag.

### 22. Liquidity
**Avg daily value: ~₹85 Cr — excellent liquidity.**
**✅ PASS**

### 23. Relative Strength
**1-year return: Anant Raj -5.68% vs Nifty 500 ~+15%**
**✗ FAIL** — Severe underperformance.

### 24. Breakout Confirmation
**No breakout. Stuck in ₹403-545 range.**
**✗ FAIL** — Wait for decisive breakout with volume.

### 25. Trading Psychology
**Patience test — exciting story but wrong setup.**
**✅ PASS** — Disciplined decision is to WAIT.

---

### 📊 Scoring Summary

| # | Criteria | Score |
|---|----------|-------|
| 1 | Price Position | ✗ |
| 2 | Trend | ✗ |
| 3 | Volume | ⚠️ |
| 4 | Clean Price Action | ✗ |
| 5 | EMA Alignment | ✗ |
| 6 | Chart Pattern | ⚠️ |
| 7 | Base Quality | ⚠️ |
| 8 | ADR | ✅ |
| 9 | Primary Uptrend | ✗ |
| 10 | Follow Model | ✅ |
| 11 | Sector Strength | ⚠️ |
| 12 | Tailwind | ⚠️ |
| 13 | IPO (N/A) | ✅ |
| 14 | Price Action Strength | ⚠️ |
| 15 | Sector/ Govt Boost | ✅ |
| 16 | Fundamentals | ✅ |
| 17 | Earnings Growth | ⚠️ |
| 18 | Delivery % | ⚠️ |
| 19 | News/ Institutional | ⚠️ |
| 20 | Risk Management | ⚠️ |
| 21 | Market Environment | ✗ |
| 22 | Liquidity | ✅ |
| 23 | Relative Strength | ✗ |
| 24 | Breakout Confirmation | ✗ |
| 25 | Trading Psychology | ✅ |

**Score: 8/23 (measurable) — ✗ WEAK**  
**✅ 7 | ⚠️ 9 | ✗ 7**

**Critical fails (must-pass items 1, 2, 24):** All three fail ❌

### Verdict: ❌ DO NOT SWING TRADE

Anant Raj is a compelling long-term story but is **not a swing trade**. The technical structure is broken — below 200 DMA, ADX near zero, lower highs. Swing traders should wait for:
1. Base tightening (narrow range weeks)
2. Volume expansion + breakout above ₹545-550
3. ED overhang resolution
4. Institutional accumulation resume

---

## 18. Disclaimer

**Data Sources:**
- Screener.in (Consolidated Financials) — all fundamental data
- TradingView — technical indicators (Daily timeframe)
- NSE India Bhavcopy — delivery data
- Tavily Search — news, catalysts, analyst reports
- Trendlyne — block deals, insider trading, shareholding
- Company investor presentations and earnings call transcripts

*This analysis is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making investment decisions.*