---
title: "Policy Pulse — Global — 13 Jul 2026"
ticker: "XOM:CVX:OXY:EOG:COP:HAL:SLB:BP:SHEL:USO:DAL:UAL:AAL:LUV:CCL:RCL:NCLH:SPY:GLD:TCS:INFY:WELSPUN:SUNPHARMA"
date: "2026-07-13"
tags: ["policy-pulse","global","us-only","iran-war","oil","strait-of-hormuz","energy","airlines","cruises","safe-haven"]
summary: "Trump says US will get 'paid to guard' Strait of Hormuz — oil at 5-78 sustained. Iran tensions escalate with fresh strikes. Oil/gas stocks up (XOM, CVX, OXY), airlines down (DAL, UAL), cruises down (CCL, RCL). India-US trade talks stall adds EM uncertainty."
model: "deepseek-chat"
---

## 🌍 Strait of Hormuz Escalation — Trump Says US Will Get Paid to Guard the Strait; Iran Tensions Continue

The **Strait of Hormuz crisis** intensified over the weekend with fresh US strikes on Iranian targets and Iran striking commercial tankers. President Trump added a new dimension Monday: the US will be **"going to get paid"** for guarding the vital oil-shipping route.

**Key developments:**
- **Trump announcement:** US will "keep the strait" and "probably run it"; demands reimbursement from other nations
- **US strikes on Iran:** Pentagon confirmed a new round of airstrikes on Iranian coastal targets
- **Iran retaliation:** Iran continues to strike commercial tankers using the strait
- **US Treasury** previously revoked Iranian oil waiver effective **July 17** — no new transactions permitted
- **NATO summit (Ankara):** Trump declared previous ceasefire "over"

**Oil market:**
- **Brent crude** sustained at ~$75-78/barrel range
- IEA warned global oil inventories are **heavily depleted** — no buffer for further supply shocks
- Oil supply rebounded by 4.1 mb/d to 98.8 mb/d in June, but IEA warns supply on track to decline 3.7 mb/d in 2026
- Strait transit remains hazardous — insurance premiums for tankers remain elevated
- Goldman Sachs expects Brent could fall to $60 if Hormuz normalizes, but Citi sees risk of $85+ in escalation scenario

**Market action:**
- S&P 500 fell 1.5% on the escalation day (Dow -800 points)
- Energy sector rallied on oil price support
- Airlines and cruise stocks hit hardest on fuel cost concerns
- Gold modestly bid on safe-haven demand
- USD strengthened on risk-off flows

### Stocks to Watch

**🇺🇸 US Stocks — Oil & Energy (🟢 Positive)**

| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|-------|--------|--------|
| XOM | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Integrated oil; elevated crude environment supports earnings |
| CVX | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Chevron — US production; benefits from sustained $75+ crude |
| OXY | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Pure-play US producer; Warren Buffett holding; highest crude beta |
| EOG | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | US shale producer; direct crude price exposure |
| COP | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | ConocoPhillips — Permian + international; crude beneficiary |
| HAL | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Oilfield services; drilling demand increases with sustained high crude |
| SLB | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Global oil services leader; Middle East exposure boosts demand |
| BP | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Integrated oil — elevated crude supports refining margins |
| SHEL | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Shell — integrated model; LNG exposure adds another dimension |
| USO | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | US Oil Fund — direct crude oil futures exposure |

**🇺🇸 US Stocks — Airlines & Cruises (🔴 Negative)**

| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|-------|--------|--------|
| DAL | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | Delta — jet fuel costs spike on sustained high crude |
| UAL | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | United Airlines — fuel cost headwind |
| AAL | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | American Airlines — most levered to fuel costs among majors |
| LUV | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | Southwest — fuel hedging partially offsets but still exposed |
| CCL | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | Carnival — fuel cost pressure + cruise demand sensitivity to ME conflict |
| RCL | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | Royal Caribbean — same fuel + sentiment headwinds |
| NCLH | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | Norwegian Cruise Line — fuel cost and consumer sentiment exposure |

**🇺🇸 US Stocks — Broader Market (🔴 Negative)**

| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|-------|--------|--------|
| SPY | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | S&P 500 ETF — geopolitical uncertainty premium increases |
| GLD | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Gold — safe-haven demand on sustained escalation |

---

## 🌍 India-US Trade Negotiations Stall — Global Spillover to Emerging Markets

Beyond the bilateral impact covered in the Modi section, the **stalling of India-US trade talks** has broader implications:

**What it signals:**
1. Trump's tariff strategy is losing its coercive power — India is the first major economy to openly hold out
2. The US Supreme Court's February ruling against IEEPA tariffs has structurally weakened Washington's hand
3. Other emerging markets watching India's playbook — could embolden more countries to resist US tariff demands
4. BRICS alignment risk: Trump previously threatened BRICS-aligned countries with additional 10% tariffs

**For India:**
- US is expected to announce steeper tariffs later this month through excess industrial capacity probes
- Risk of 12.5% forced labor tariffs on top of existing baseline
- Short-term negative for India-exposed sectors, but long-term India's diversification strategy (UK FTA, EU deal) reduces dependency
- Weaker rupee already provides ~15% export competitiveness boost

### Stocks to Watch (India — Emerging Market Spillover)

| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|-------|--------|--------|
| TCS | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | Indian IT — largest US revenue exposure; tariff uncertainty delays deal flow |
| INFY | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | IT services — same US revenue overhang |
| WELSPUN | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | Textiles — direct 12.5% forced labor tariff exposure |
| SUNPHARMA | ⚠️ Neutral-but-watch | Pharma — tariff risk moderate but supply chain scrutiny rising |

---

## 📌 Summary

| Signal | Sector | Key Stocks | Direction |
|--------|--------|------------|-----------|
| Hormuz escalation + Trump "paid guardian" | US Oil & Gas | XOM, CVX, OXY, EOG, HAL, SLB, BP, SHEL | 🟢 Positive |
| Hormuz escalation + sustained high crude | US Airlines | DAL, UAL, AAL, LUV | 🔴 Negative |
| Hormuz escalation + sustained high crude | US Cruises | CCL, RCL, NCLH | 🔴 Negative |
| Geopolitical uncertainty | US Safe-haven | GLD | 🟢 Positive |
| Geopolitical uncertainty | US Broad Market | SPY | 🔴 Negative |
| India-US trade talks stall | Indian IT | TCS, INFY | 🔴 Negative |
| India-US trade talks stall | Indian Textiles | WELSPUN, TRIDENT | 🔴 Negative |