---
title: "Policy Pulse — Trump — 14 Jul 2026"
ticker: "AAPL:MSFT:NVDA:LLY:JNJ:PFE:COIN:MSTR:HOOD:BLK:XOM:CVX:OXY:BA:GE:JPM:GS:TSLA:GM:F:FSLR:ENPH:DJT:SPY"
date: "2026-07-14"
tags: ["policy-pulse","us-only","trump","tariffs","refunds","crypto","clarity-act"]
summary: "Trump's $81B tariff refunds and new exemption EO signal shifting trade stance — tailwinds for mega-cap importers (AAPL, MSFT, LLY), crypto platforms (COIN, MSTR), and energy (XOM)."
model: "deepseek-chat"
---

**Three major Trump stories drive market signals today: (1) $81 billion tariff refund underway after Supreme Court ruling, (2) new executive order offering tariff exemptions to aligned trade partners, (3) Trump urges Senate to pass crypto Clarity Act in honor of late Sen. Graham.**

## 1. US Refunds $81 Billion in Trump Tariffs After Supreme Court Ruling

The US government has paid out $81 billion in tariff refunds so far this fiscal year after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under IEEPA authority in February 2026. Most refunds occurred in May and June. Deficit hit $1.367 trillion in the first 9 months, up 2%. Interest on debt exceeded $1 trillion (+14%). The administration's current temporary 10% global tariff expires July 24.

**Stock Impact: US Stocks Only**

| Stock | Direction | Reason |
|-------|-----------|--------|
| SPY | 🟡 HOLD | Tariff refunds boost corporate cash flows but fiscal deficit worsening |
| XOM:CVX:OXY | 🟢 BUY | Refunds disproportionately benefit energy importers |
| BA:GE | 🟢 BUY | Defense/aerospace firms among big tariff payers now getting refunds |
| JPM:GS:MSFT | 🟢 BUY | Large US multinationals with high import volumes benefit most from refunds |

## 2. Trump Signs Executive Order Offering Tariff Exemptions to Countries with Trade Deals

Trump signed an EO identifying 45+ categories for zero import tariffs from "aligned partners" who clinch framework pacts. Categories include: graphite, nickel (EV batteries), pharmaceutical compounds, gold, agricultural products, aircraft parts, neodymium magnets, LEDs. Effective Monday July 14.

**Stock Impact: US Stocks Only**

| Stock | Direction | Reason |
|-------|-----------|--------|
| AAPL:MSFT:NVDA | 🟢 BUY | Zero tariffs on rare earth magnetics + graphite reduce input costs |
| LLY:JNJ:PFE:MRK | 🟢 BUY | Pharma ingredient exemptions lower generic drug input costs |
| TSLA:GM:F | 🟢 BUY | Nickel tariff exemption lowers EV battery input costs |
| FSLR:ENPH | 🟡 HOLD | Polysilicon tariff exemptions ELIMINATED — watch solar sector cost pressure |

## 3. Trump Urges Senate to Pass Crypto Clarity Act

Trump posted on Truth Social urging passage of the Clarity Act in honor of Sen. Lindsey Graham. Trump made $1.2 billion from crypto ventures in 2025. Democrats seek provision restricting elected officials from profiting from digital assets.

**Stock Impact: US Stocks Only**

| Stock | Direction | Reason |
|-------|-----------|--------|
| COIN:MSTR:HOOD | 🟢 BUY | Clear crypto regulation framework bullish for US-based crypto platforms |
| BLK | 🟢 BUY | BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF benefits from regulatory clarity |
| DJT | 🟡 HOLD | Crypto pivot may get tailwind from Clarity Act, but fundamentals very weak |

## 📊 Stocks to Watch (Trump-Driven)

| Ticker | Signal | Key Catalyst |
|--------|--------|-------------|
| AAPL | 🟢 BUY | Nickel/graphite tariff exemption lowers cost base |
| LLY | 🟢 BUY | Pharma ingredient tariff relief |
| COIN | 🟢 BUY | Crypto Clarity Act momentum |
| SPY | 🟡 HOLD | July 24 tariff cliff approaching |