---
title: "Policy Pulse — Trump/US Watch — 21 Jul 2026"
ticker: "GOOGL:AAPL:NVDA:AVGO:PLTR:LMT:GD:KTOS:GE:HON:TDG:BA:HWM:LHX:XOM:CVX:OXY:DAL:UAL:AAL:WMT:TGT:COST:AMZN:HD:LOW:FIVE:TSLA:STLA:GM:F:MP:AA:CLF"
date: "2026-07-21"
tags: ["us-only","stocks","trump","trump-trades","canada-tariffs","defence-eo","section122"]
summary: "Trump's portfolio beats S&P (37.3% vs 23.5%); Canada slapped with 50% Section 338 tariffs on autos/booze/dairy; Defense Supply Chain EO cuts China waivers. Section 122 expiry in 3 days. Impact: 🟢 BUY GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA, PLTR, XOM, WMT, TGT, MP | 🔴 SELL DAL, UAL, STLA"
model: "deepseek-chat"
---

## 🇺🇸 Trump Stock Trades Portfolio Update

President Donald Trump's latest financial disclosure reveals his portfolio (excluding his own company) returned **37.3%** since inauguration, crushing the S&P 500's 23.5% gain. He made **21,285 stock trades in 2025** (85/day) and disclosed **3,642 trades in Q1 2026** with $194M in March 2026 trading volume alone.

### Top 5 Equity Holdings by Value
| Holding | Estimated Value |
|---------|----------------|
| Trump Media & Technology (DJT) | $993M |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | $40.1M |
| Apple (AAPL) | $36M |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | $35.3M |
| Broadcom (AVGO) | $24M |

### Defence Stock Purchases
Trump's portfolio continues heavy defence exposure. Q1 2026-disclosed purchases include:
| Stock | Range | Ticker |
|-------|-------|--------|
| Palantir | $1.6M–$3.9M | PLTR |
| Lockheed Martin | $1M–$5M | LMT |
| General Dynamics | $1M–$5M | GD |
| Kratos Defense | $500K–$1M | KTOS |
| GE Aerospace | $1M–$5M | GE |
| Honeywell | $1M–$5M | HON |
| TransDigm | $500K–$1M | TDG |
| Boeing | $1M–$5M | BA |
| Howmet Aerospace | $500K–$1M | HWM |
| L3Harris | $500K–$1M | LHX |

### Crypto Income
$1.4B in crypto income: $500M from World Liberty Financial (WLFI) and $635M from $TRUMP Coin licensing.

### 🟢 Copy-Trade Signals
Trump's largest non-DJT holdings are mega-cap tech: **GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA, AVGO**. The "copy trade" effect amplifies moves in these names whenever disclosed.

---

## 🇺🇸 Trump-US Policy Watch: Canada 50% Tariffs (Jul 20)

President Trump signed **three proclamations** on Jul 20 imposing **50% tariffs** on Canadian goods — the first use of Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 in nearly a century. The tariffs cover:
- **Motor vehicles**: Canada's quotas penalize US auto imports vs other countries
- **Alcoholic beverages**: Canadian provinces halted US alcohol purchases (81% drop in imports)
- **Dairy**: Canada's TRQs on US cheese are more restrictive than EU cheese quotas

**Effective date:** 30 days after signing (mid-August 2026)
**Magnitude:** ~$20B of Canadian imports affected (5.2% of total US imports from Canada)
**Excluded:** Energy, potash, critical minerals, goods already under Section 232

### 🟢🟡 Stocks to Watch
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|-------|--------|--------|
| **GM** | 🟡 HOLD | Integrated US-Canada supply chain — parts cost increase but less exposure than domestics; 22% drop in US auto exports to Canada already priced |
| **F** | 🟡 HOLD | Similar to GM; Canada retaliatory risk but direct tariff impact limited (excluded from Section 232 overlap) |
| **TSLA** | 🟢 BUY | No legacy Canada production dependency; benefits from US protectionism |
| **STLA** | 🔴 SELL | Most exposed European OEM in North America; Canada production base |
| **XOM** | 🟢 BUY | Energy explicitly excluded from tariffs; oil price tailwind from Hormuz crisis |
| **CVX** | 🟢 BUY | Same exclusion; international diversification |
| **CAT** | 🟡 HOLD | Construction/mining equipment — cement tariffs may raise input costs |
| **WMT** | 🟢 BUY | Retailer with massive import base; Section 122 expiry (Jul 24) is bigger tailwind |
| **TGT** | 🟢 BUY | Same Section 122 beneficiary — relief from 10% global surcharge |
| **COST** | 🟢 BUY | Import-heavy retailer; double benefit from Section 122 expiry |
| **AMZN** | 🟢 BUY | Retail + cloud; Section 122 expiry reduces cost of goods sold |
| **HD** | 🟢 BUY | Home improvement — cement tariff headwind but Section 122 tailwind dominates |
| **LOW** | 🟢 BUY | Same dynamics as HD |

---

## 🇺🇸 Defense Supply Chain Executive Order (Jul 20)

Trump signed an Executive Order **"Securing America's Defense Supply Chains"** that:
- **Cuts waivers** allowing defence contractors to buy critical minerals from China/ adversaries starting Jan 1, 2027
- **Mandates supply chain mapping** — complete indentured Bill of Materials tracing raw materials origin
- **Requires qualification** of domestic/ally alternative sources
- Targets China's stranglehold on rare earths and critical minerals

### 🟢 Stocks to Watch
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|-------|--------|--------|
| **MP** | 🟢 BUY | MP Materials — only US rare earths producer; direct beneficiary of domestic sourcing mandate |
| **PLTR** | 🟢 BUY | Supply chain mapping/AI tools required by EO; Palantir's Foundry ideal for defense supply chain illumination |
| **LMT** | 🟢 BUY | Defence prime — benefits from reduced Chinese dependency; large installed base needs requalification |
| **GD** | 🟢 BUY | Similar to LMT; submarine/shipbuilding supply chains heavily reliant on specialty metals |
| **NOC** | 🟢 BUY | Northrop — long supply chains in aerospace/defence will need remapping |
| **RTX** | 🟢 BUY | Raytheon — electronics supply chain heavily exposed to Chinese components |
| **HWM** | 🟢 BUY | Howmet Aerospace — specialty metals producer; domestic sourcing tailwind |
| **AA** | 🟢 BUY | Alcoa — aluminum producer benefits from domestic procurement preference |
| **KALU** | 🟢 BUY | Kaiser Aluminum — same dynamic |
| **CENX** | 🟢 BUY | Century Aluminum — US producer beneficiary |
| **GE** | 🟢 BUY | GE Aerospace — long defence supply chains requiring compliance |
| **HII** | 🟢 BUY | Huntington Ingalls — shipbuilder with critical mineral supply chain needs |
| **CLF** | 🟢 BUY | Cleveland-Cliffs — domestic steel producer; defense-grade steel supplier |

---

## 🌍 Global Spillover: Strait of Hormuz Escalation

**Situation update Jul 20-21:**
- Trump said Iran "will pay" for killing 3 US service members
- US bombed Iran for **9th consecutive night**
- Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen declared **maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia**
- Brent crude at $89.22/barrel (+1.3%), WTI at $83.23
- Gasoline back to $4/gallon in US
- Brent up ~20% this month from Hormuz crisis
- Amrita Sen (Energy Aspects): sustained Hormuz slowdown + depleted inventories could push oil to $100+

### 🟢🟡🔴 Stock Impact
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|-------|--------|--------|
| **XOM** | 🟢 BUY | Integrated oil major; direct beneficiary of $90+ Brent; US production hedged |
| **CVX** | 🟢 BUY | Same; Chevron has strong Gulf of Mexico production |
| **OXY** | 🟢 BUY | Permian-focused; Occidental benefits from every $1 oil increase (~$200M FCF) |
| **EOG** | 🟢 BUY | Low-cost Permian producer; breakeven under $40/bbl |
| **COP** | 🟢 BUY | ConocoPhillips; global E&P with Alaska/Europe production |
| **HAL** | 🟢 BUY | Halliburton — oil services demand spikes with production expansion |
| **SLB** | 🟢 BUY | Schlumberger — global oil services leader; demand tailwind |
| **BP** | 🟢 BUY | BP integrated; has Gulf production; dividend safe at current prices |
| **SHEL** | 🟢 BUY | Shell — diversified; LNG exposure also a tailwind |
| **USO** | 🟢 BUY | Oil ETF proxy for directional crude bet |
| **DAL** | 🔴 SELL | Delta — jet fuel cost spike (~30% of operating expenses); already guided lower |
| **UAL** | 🔴 SELL | United — fuel cost headwind; transatlantic/Hawaii routes exposed |
| **AAL** | 🔴 SELL | American — weakest balance sheet among US airlines; fuel costs bite hardest |
| **LUV** | 🔴 SELL | Southwest — fuel hedges expiring; unhedged exposure rising |
| **CCL** | 🔴 SELL | Carnival — fuel cost + discretionary spending risk |
| **RCL** | 🔴 SELL | Royal Caribbean — same; fuel + consumer sentiment headwind |
| **NCLH** | 🔴 SELL | Norwegian Cruise Line — most leveraged to fuel costs |

---

## 📅 Section 122 Tariff Expiry — 3 Days Away (Jul 24, 2026)

The **10-15% global import surcharge** expires by statute on **July 24, 2026** (150-day limit under Trade Act of 1974). This is now a **3-day countdown**.

### What happens:
- Cannot be extended by President alone — requires Congressional action
- Proposed replacement: 12.5% Section 301 tariffs on 46 countries (already in pipeline)
- EU already moved to 15% deal ceiling (Jul 1)
- Possibility of a duty-free gap between expiry and replacement

### US Retail Beneficiaries (direct):
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|-------|--------|--------|
| **WMT** | 🟢 BUY | Biggest US importer; Section 122 expiry saves ~$2B annually |
| **TGT** | 🟢 BUY | Heavy import exposure; relief on 10% surcharge is 200+ bps margin upside |
| **COST** | 🟢 BUY | Import-heavy model; membership model + tariff relief = margin expansion |
| **AMZN** | 🟢 BUY | Marketplace + retail; lower import costs flow to bottom line |
| **HD** | 🟢 BUY | Home Depot — large import base; construction materials cost relief |
| **LOW** | 🟢 BUY | Lowe's — same dynamic |
| **ROST** | 🟢 BUY | Ross Stores — off-price retail with import-heavy model |
| **TJX** | 🟢 BUY | TJ Maxx — same off-price import model |
| **FIVE** | 🟢 BUY | Five Below — low-price retail; tariff relief protects margins |

---

## Stocks to Watch — Quick Reference

### 🇺🇸 Oil & Energy (Hormuz Crisis)
**BUY:** XOM, CVX, OXY, EOG, COP, HAL, SLB, BP, SHEL, USO

### 🇺🇸 Airlines & Cruises (Fuel Headwind)
**SELL:** DAL, UAL, AAL, LUV, CCL, RCL, NCLH

### 🇺🇸 Retail (Section 122 Expiry Jul 24)
**BUY:** WMT, TGT, COST, AMZN, HD, LOW, ROST, TJX, FIVE

### 🇺🇸 Defense (Supply Chain EO + Hormuz)
**BUY:** PLTR, LMT, GD, NOC, RTX, HWM, GE, HII, MP, AA, KALU, CENX, CLF

### 🇺🇸 Auto (Canada Tariffs)
**BUY:** TSLA | **SELL:** STLA | **HOLD:** GM, F

### 🇺🇸 Trump Copy-Trade (Portfolio Disclosure)
**BUY:** GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA, AVGO, PLTR, LMT, GD, GE, HON