---
title: "Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 10 Sep 2026"
ticker: "XOM:CVX:OXY:EOG:COP:SLB:USO:VLO:MPC:PSX:KMI:WMB:DAL:UAL:AAL:LUV:CCL:RCL:NCLH:AA:F:GM:STLA:HOG:AAPL:META:JPM:GS:SPY:QQQ:DJT"
date: "2026-09-10"
tags: ["policy-pulse","us-only","tariffs","fed"]
summary: "Hot August PPI (headline +5.4% y/y, energy +4.2%, diesel +24.1%) and crude back above USD 100 pushed the 10-year to a 2023 high and September hike odds near 66%. Trump's top-9 energy holdings gained USD 1.5-4.4M during the Iran war (CVX, COP, XOM, OXY); Canada tariffs escalate to import bans on dairy, alcohol and motorcycles (F, GM, STLA, HOG) while aluminium bars and rods face 50% (AA)."
model: "deepseek-chat"
---

## Hot August PPI Plus USD 100 Crude Push the 10-Year to a Three-Year High — September Hike Odds Jump to ~66%

The August producer price index, released Thursday September 10 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, came in **hot on the headline**: final demand prices rose **0.4% month-on-month** (in line with consensus) and **5.4% year-on-year**, a tenth of a point above the estimate. Core PPI rose 0.2%, slightly softer than the 0.3% expected.

The composition is the tell. **Final demand energy prices rose 4.2%**, led by **diesel up 24.1%**, while goods prices rose 1.1% and services just 0.1% (transportation and warehousing +2.3%). Processed goods rose 1.8%. Portfolio management costs fell 1.6% in the month but remain **18.8% higher year-on-year**.

Two things landed at the same time: **US crude topped USD 100 a barrel** and the **10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2023** (4.836%, +3bp) after a Treasury buyback operation disappointed (USD 6bn of longer-dated debt versus expectations of more). Fed funds futures moved to price roughly a **66% chance of a 25bp hike** at the September 15-16 FOMC, up from a coin flip earlier in the week. Weekly jobless claims were 206K versus 205K expected. Equity futures turned negative after the print. Friday's **August CPI** is the last input before the FOMC — consensus 3.4% headline, 2.4% core.

| Stock | Impact | Reason | Confidence |
|-------|--------|--------|-----------|
| XOM / CVX / OXY / EOG / COP / SLB / USO | 🟢 Positive | Energy is the only real PPI driver (energy +4.2%, diesel +24.1%) and crude above USD 100 lifts upstream realisations | High |
| VLO / MPC / PSX | 🟢 Positive | Record diesel cracks — US diesel at an all-time high — are the strongest product margin in the complex | High |
| DAL / UAL / AAL / LUV / SAVE | 🔴 Negative | Jet fuel tracks diesel; USD 100 crude plus a hawkish Fed is the worst combination for unit costs | High |
| CCL / RCL / NCLH | 🔴 Negative | Fuel is the second-largest cruise cost line and discretionary demand faces a real-income squeeze | Medium |
| JPM / GS / MS | 🟢 Positive | Steeper curve and higher-for-longer rates support net interest margins | Medium |
| SPY / QQQ | 🟡 Watch | The 10-year at a three-year high compresses long-duration multiples; the AI earnings cycle is the offset | Medium |
| IWM (Russell 2000) | 🔴 Negative | Small caps carry more floating-rate debt; Russell 2000 fell 1.3% on Sep 9 as hike odds rose | Medium |

## Trump Signals the Iran War Runs Past the November Midterms — Oil Stays Bid

Speaking at the Republican convention, President Trump said he believed the **war with Iran would end immediately after the November 3 midterm elections**, arguing Tehran is trying to influence the vote, and separately said **oil and gasoline prices will not fall until after the midterms** — while repeating a pledge of USD 2-3 per gallon gasoline. That is the clearest signal yet that the administration is not seeking a near-term ceasefire, which removes the main downside catalyst for crude.

The physical backdrop is tightening, not loosening: US forces **sank five Iranian oil tankers** on September 8-9 (Kharg Island and the Gulf of Oman) after Iranian missile attacks on a US warship; Iran said it struck **10 vessels** near the Strait of Hormuz and announced an **expanded no-go zone extending outside the strait**. The EIA raised its 2026 and 2027 oil price forecasts as inventories drain.

| Stock | Impact | Reason | Confidence |
|-------|--------|--------|-----------|
| XOM / CVX / OXY / COP / HAL / SLB | 🟢 Positive | A political calendar that rules out a near-term ceasefire is the single largest support for the energy complex | High |
| USO / OIH (oil ETFs and services) | 🟢 Positive | Direct proxy for the crude path; services pricing follows the rig count with a lag | Medium |
| DAL / UAL / AAL / LUV | 🔴 Negative | Every week of USD 100 crude is a down-leg to consensus FY27 EPS; gasoline above USD 4.20/gallon also hits leisure travel demand | High |
| WMT / TGT / COST | 🟡 Watch | Freight and diesel pass-through into goods costs, against resilient nominal consumer spending | Low |

## Canada Trade War Escalates to Outright Import Bans

Canada's retaliatory tariffs on roughly **USD 20bn of US goods** — duties of 15% to 50% on hundreds of products, including US steel items raised to 50% from 25%, motorcycles, cosmetics and cheese — took effect on September 8. Trump responded with **six proclamations on September 8**: two excluding certain **Canadian alcoholic beverages and dairy products** from importation, two modifying the scope of duties on Canadian **motor vehicles and alcohol**, plus adjustments elsewhere.

The practical effect: tariffs were **removed** on road salt and cement, while **new 50% duties land within six days** on aluminium bars and rods, mattresses, golf carts and certain paper products. Trump also singled out Canadian jet maker **Bombardier** ("no more selling Bombardier in the United States — if they want our market, they must build here").

| Stock | Impact | Reason | Confidence |
|-------|--------|--------|-----------|
| AA (Alcoa) | 🟢 Positive | 50% duties on imported aluminium bars and rods raise the domestic price umbrella for US primary aluminium | High |
| F / GM / STLA | 🔴 Negative | The deepest cross-border manufacturing exposure of any S&P sector: Canadian-built vehicles and parts face tariff and scope risk both ways | High |
| HOG (Harley-Davidson) | 🔴 Negative | Canadian retaliatory duties on motorcycles up to 50% hit the highest-tariff US consumer import in this round | Medium |
| TXT (Textron) | 🟡 Watch | 50% on imported golf carts helps a US-based manufacturer (E-Z-GO), but a tit-for-tat consumer-goods spiral cuts both ways | Medium |
| NUE / CLF / STLD | 🔴 Negative | Canada raised duties on US steel items to 50%, directly taxing US steel exports northbound | Medium |
| WMT / TGT | 🟡 Watch | Mattress, paper and consumer-goods tariff lines feed cost of goods; offsetting is the road-salt/cement relief | Low |

## Leader Stock Trades: Trump's Nine Largest Energy Holdings Gained USD 1.5-4.4 Million During the Iran War

A CNBC analysis of the President's financial disclosures, company filings and FactSet data (published September 9) found that **Trump's nine largest oil and gas holdings gained between USD 1.5 million and USD 4.4 million** between February 27 (the trading day before the war) and August 31. The nine: **Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, Kinder Morgan, Marathon Petroleum, Occidental Petroleum, Phillips 66, Valero Energy and Williams Companies**.

Federal records show the accounts **traded heavily across those names through June 29** (the most recent date on which any trade is disclosed), recording purchases and at least **23 sales**. Separately, on September 6 Trump posted on Truth Social that he had made "hundreds of billions of dollars on stocks... for the U.S.A., not myself," sharing an AI-generated image of himself watching Intel stock rise — the post has added to scrutiny of the accounts rather than settling it. CNBC found no evidence that Trump or his managers traded on advance knowledge of policy decisions.

| Stock | Impact | Reason | Confidence |
|-------|--------|--------|-----------|
| CVX / COP / XOM / OXY / PSX / VLO | 🟡 Watch | Disclosed, sizeable presidential exposure creates a copy-trade and sentiment channel in exactly the sector his Iran policy is re-rating | Medium |
| KMI / WMB (midstream) | 🟡 Watch | The two pipeline names in the top nine round out the integrated energy exposure | Low |
| DJT | 🟡 Watch | Truth Social is the distribution channel for these market-moving posts; disclosure scrutiny cuts both ways for the stock | Low |

## US Market Close September 9: Third Straight Decline, Then a Hot PPI Print

- **Dow -405.41 (-0.77%) to 52,380.66; S&P 500 -37.16 (-0.50%) to 7,636.36; Nasdaq -168.07 (-0.64%) to 26,253.34; Russell 2000 -1.3% to 2,919.86; VIX ~16.2.** Worst week of the quarter so far (Dow -1.9% week-to-date) and the third consecutive decline.
- **Oil was the through-line**: Brent settled at **USD 101.21 (+3.4%)**, back above USD 100 for the first time since July; WTI USD 96.05.
- **Apple** unveiled its first foldable — the **iPhone Duo, from USD 1,999**, pre-orders October 16 and on sale October 23 — under new CEO John Ternus; the stock closed slightly higher. **Meta jumped about 6%** on the launch of its Muse consumer AI agent (Mizuho raised its target to USD 750). Alphabet fell 2%.
- Mortgage rates approached **6.97%** for a 30-year fixed — a direct function of the yield move, and the key affordability constraint on housing activity.