---
title: "Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 13 Oct 2026"
ticker: "GS:JPM:C:WFC:VLO:PSX:XOM:CVX:DAL:UAL:DJT:MS:COIN:MU:AVGO:WMT"
date: "2026-10-13"
tags: ["policy-pulse","us-only","tariffs","russia","crypto","bank-earnings","fed","semiconductors"]
summary: "Goldman beat on a 72% surge in equities revenue while JPMorgan missed its first quarter in three years. Trump floated a US diesel export cap five days before the Graham Act's October 18 deadline, hitting VLO and PSX, and Trump Media pulled three crypto ETF filings as DJT fell 5% on a 32% approval rating."
model: "deepseek-chat"
---

## Trump's Russian Diesel Deal Collides With the Graham Act's October 18 Deadline

Speaking to reporters at the White House on **October 13** before leaving for a campaign trip to Youngstown, Ohio, President Trump dismissed Republican senators who oppose his Russian diesel arrangement as people who "can't really be serious" — and then floated a measure that would hit his own refiners:

- "We could do a restriction on oil, but the rest of the world would be greatly, greatly affected if we do that. We could do a restriction, you know, **a cap on diesel, keep it all for ourselves**. That would have a very big impact."
- "It's not really a deal with me; it's a deal for the rest of the world. So, anything that could help our farmers or ranchers, I like."

The law behind the deadline is the **Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act**, which Trump signed on **September 18, 2026** (passed the Senate 86-11 and the House 262-159).

- **Section 112** requires the president to raise duties on **all goods imported from Russia, explicitly including petroleum and petroleum products, to a rate of up to 500%** within 30 days of enactment. The thirtieth day is **Sunday, October 18**; several law firms advising clients give the operative date as **Monday, October 19**.
- **Section 113** provides additional duties of **up to 100%** on all goods from the five largest buyers of Russian crude or gas — but only if they **knowingly make new purchases on or after that deadline**. Purchases made before it do not count, whatever has been said about them.
- **Section 113(g)** requires the president or USTR to send the relevant congressional committees a written justification **not later than 10 days before imposing a duty**. For a October 18 start, that fell around **October 8**. As of October 12-13 the administration had published **no target list, no rate and no waiver**.
- The present collision: a Treasury **General License 135**, issued **October 9**, permits Russian diesel into the United States until **April 7, 2027**. Because it was issued *after* the September 18 enactment, the Act's Section 114(h)(1) shelter for pre-existing licences does not cover it, while Section 112 says the president "shall" act.
- Senator **Thom Tillis** has said the arrangement may breach the 2022 ban on Russian oil imports; the backlash in Congress is bipartisan.

| Stock | Impact | Reason | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| VLO, PSX, MPC | 🔴 Negative | Both halves of this policy push the same way for US refiners: an import licence adds product into the domestic diesel market, and an export cap would remove the outlet that has carried distillate cracks all quarter | 3/5 |
| XOM, CVX | 🟡 Watch | The integrateds are marked to crude above $100 through the upstream, but their refining arms face the same crack compression as the pure-play refiners | 2/5 |
| DAL, UAL, AAL, LUV | 🟢 Positive | The deal is explicitly framed as easing prices at the pump ahead of the November 3 midterms; cheaper distillate is the largest single line-item relief for airline fuel bills | 2/5 |
| SAVE | 🟡 Watch | Same fuel logic as the majors, but the balance sheet is the binding constraint on this name rather than the crack spread | 2/5 |

## Trump Media Pulls Three Crypto ETF Filings as Its Political Badge Reprices

**Yorkville America**, the sponsor and investment adviser for the Truth Social funds, withdrew registration statements on **October 13** for the **Truth Social Bitcoin ETF**, the **Truth Social Bitcoin & Ethereum ETF** and the **Truth Social Crypto Blue Chip ETF**.

- Trump Media & Technology Group told the SEC it "has determined to withdraw the Registration Statement and not to pursue the public offering at this time," describing the move as a structural reset from a 1933 Act product to a 1940 Act structure.
- Bloomberg Intelligence's **James Seyffart** questioned the rationale: "Of course a 33 Act ETP is different from a 40 Act ETF and it has less protections. Anyone in this space knows that. **Nothing has changed.**"
- The more plausible driver is competition. **Morgan Stanley's MSBT** Bitcoin spot ETF charges **0.14%**, the lowest on the market, and has taken in more than **$230 million** without a single day of net outflows. The first five Truth Social ETFs have gathered just over **$30 million** in combined assets since launching at the end of 2025.
- Separately, on-chain data cited by market observers showed TMTG moved **2,650 Bitcoin, about $205 million**, to Crypto.com. The company posted a **$405.9 million** first-quarter net loss, largely non-cash marks on digital assets.
- The stock fell roughly **5% on October 13 to about $8.2**, from a prior close of $8.65, and is down about **42% year-to-date**. The proximate driver was political rather than operational: a **Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump's approval rating at 32%**, the lowest of his career and down from 35% a week earlier.

| Stock | Impact | Reason | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| DJT | 🔴 Negative | ✅ named. A withdrawn product filing removes the last identifiable B2B revenue catalyst from the story while the political asset that underpins the valuation is being re-rated down | 3/5 |
| MS | 🟢 Positive | ✅ named. The 0.14% fee wrapper is doing to crypto ETFs what index funds did to active management — the incumbent with the cheapest product is the one collecting the flow | 3/5 |
| BLK, COIN | 🟡 Watch | A well-capitalised issuer walking away from the category is a competitive signal, not a volume signal: the fee war is now the entry barrier | 2/5 |

## The Third Quarter Opens With a Split: Goldman's Trading Blowout, JPMorgan's First Miss in Three Years

Four of the largest US banks reported on **October 13**, and the spread between them was the story of the session.

- **Goldman Sachs** earned **$17.01 a share**, against roughly **$13.02** expected, on net income of **$5.29 billion** (+29% year on year). Revenue rose **23% to $18.68 billion**, its second-best quarter ever, about $2 billion above consensus. **Equities revenue jumped 72% to $6.44 billion** and investment banking fees rose **21% to $3.22 billion**, while fixed income slipped about 1% to $3.47 billion.
- **JPMorgan Chase** posted net income of **$15.31 billion**, or **$5.57 a share**, missing estimates of $5.90. Revenue of **$50.91 billion** came in below the $51.22 billion expected. A **$658 million loss on investment securities** cut $0.18 from EPS; excluding it, earnings were $5.75. Equity markets revenue rose 49% to $5.0 billion while **fixed income fell 4% to $5.4 billion, roughly $550 million below estimates**. Expenses grew 12% over twelve months against revenue growth of 8%, and provisions were inflated by a **$2.2 billion charge tied to the Apple Card portfolio deal**.
- **Citigroup** beat estimates; **Wells Fargo** missed on revenue. JPMorgan shares were up about 0.8% early, Goldman up 1.9%.
- Jamie Dimon's statement is the one worth keeping: "The U.S. economy continued to be fueled by strong business investment and ongoing consumer spending. However, **large fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, elevated asset prices, rising interest rates and geopolitical conditions continue to shift under the surface**."
- Context: global investment banking revenue fell **6.6% year on year to $27.2 billion** in the quarter as closed mergers and debt issuance declined, and the S&P 500 Banks Index fell **5.4%** in the third quarter against a 2.3% gain for the S&P 500.

| Stock | Impact | Reason | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 🟢 Positive | ✅ named. A 72% surge in equities revenue is the cleanest read on how much of the 2026 Wall Street boom is trading-desk rather than deal-fee driven | 4/5 |
| JPM | 🟡 Watch | ✅ named. A rare miss driven by fixed income and a securities loss is a quality-of-earnings question more than a franchise question, and the shares held anyway | 3/5 |
| C | 🟢 Positive | ✅ named. A beat supports the relative-value trade into the cheaper large-cap bank balance sheets | 3/5 |
| WFC | 🔴 Negative | ✅ named. A revenue miss reinforces the asset-cap and deposit-cost constraints that have kept this name a laggard through the rate cycle | 3/5 |

## The Memory Rout Crosses the Pacific and Reaches US Chip Names

The trigger was in China, but the selling landed in US semis first.

- China's **ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT)** said it will mass-produce **DDR5 RDIMM built on a 4F² DRAM cell architecture** by year-end, a structure that cuts cell area by roughly **30%**. The claim has not been independently verified. CXMT president **Cao Kanyu** set it out at an industry conference in Shanghai over the weekend.
- The **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.67%** overnight, with **Micron down 3.88%**, **Intel down 3.20%**, **Broadcom down 1.88%**, **SanDisk down 5.97%** and **Seagate down 3.80%**.
- Capital costs are compounding the supply fear. Broadcom CEO **Hock Tan**, speaking in Singapore on October 12, said "the biggest constraint in AI expansion is capital," and Intel CEO **Lip-Bu Tan** said "the biggest challenge is capital and the cost of capital."
- In the US session on October 13 the Dow was up while the Nasdaq was lower, with memory names under pressure — a rotation inside the index rather than a broad risk-off move.

| Stock | Impact | Reason | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU, WDC, STX | 🔴 Negative | A credible 4F² DRAM roadmap from a Chinese producer attacks the memory pricing cycle directly, and these are the US-listed names with the most direct DRAM and NAND price exposure | 4/5 |
| AVGO, AMD | 🔴 Negative | Both are re-rated as AI beneficiaries; when memory supply expectations shift, the entire accelerator complex is marked against a lower scarcity premium | 3/5 |
| INTC | 🔴 Negative | Still in a capital-intensive turnaround, so a market that is newly sceptical of capital-heavy semiconductor models is the wrong backdrop | 3/5 |
| MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN | 🟢 Positive | ⚠️ inferred. The buyers of memory and accelerators are the beneficiaries of any easing in component pricing, which is why hyperscaler margins move opposite to chip prices | 2/5 |

## Medicaid and CHIP Stop Paying for Gender Care for Minors

A CMS final rule took effect on **October 13, 2026**, ending federal Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance Program funding for **puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones and surgical procedures** for minors.

- Medicaid applies the restriction to children under 18, CHIP to those under 19. **Mental-health services remain covered**, states may still fund excluded treatments from their own budgets, and minors already on hormone therapy get a tapering period of up to six months, phasing out by **April 2027**.
- CMS said an HHS review found "significant gaps" in the supporting evidence and cited risks including infertility, impaired sexual function and reduced bone density. Administrator **Mehmet Oz** called the interventions "experimental" with "no proven benefits."
- The rule was finalised on **August 13, 2026** and traces to the January 2025 executive order directing agencies to restrict federal support for these procedures.

| Stock | Impact | Reason | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNC, MOH | 🟡 Watch | ⚠️ inferred. These are the most Medicaid-levered listed managed-care names, so a coverage exclusion removes lives and premium revenue while removing very little claims cost | 2/5 |
| UNH, ELV, CI | 🟡 Watch | ⚠️ inferred. Medicaid is a smaller share of these diversified books, and the excluded services are a rounding error against total medical spend | 2/5 |
| HCA, THC, UHS | 🟡 Watch | ⚠️ inferred. Procedure volumes in the affected categories are a very small fraction of hospital revenue, and mental-health coverage is unchanged, which matters more to these operators | 2/5 |

## A Tariff-Refund Class Action Gets Certified, and CPI Lands Tomorrow

- **Judge Richard Eaton** of the US Court of International Trade certified a class action brought by **Freestyle World Inc.** on behalf of every importer that paid IEEPA tariffs between **February 1, 2025 and February 19, 2026**, following the Supreme Court's February ruling in *Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump*, 146 S. Ct. 628 (2026). The government collected an estimated **$166 billion** from roughly **330,000 importers**; CBP has refunded about **$126 billion** with interest through its CAPE system. Eaton held a closed conference with the parties on **October 13** and ordered a proposed schedule by **October 22**.
- **September US CPI lands October 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET**, the last inflation print before the **October 27-28** FOMC. Consensus: headline **+0.6% month on month and 3.7% year on year** (from 0.4% and 3.4%), core **+0.2% and 2.4-2.5%**. Energy is expected to contribute about 5.5%, led by gasoline. CME FedWatch prices roughly a **19% chance** of an October hike against **about 85% for December**, and Fed Chair **Warsh** speaks on Friday.
- **The tape, mid-session — not a close.** At the open on October 13 the S&P 500 was near **7,800** (about -0.1%), the Dow near **51,853** and the Nasdaq near **27,214**. By 10:31 a.m. ET the Dow was up roughly 0.6% while the Nasdaq was down about 0.3%. The **prior session (October 12) closed at S&P 500 7,807.24, down 0.06%**. The 10-year Treasury yield sat near **5.19-5.24%** (its lowest since October 2) and the dollar index near **102.3**, off an 18-month high.

| Stock | Impact | Reason | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| WMT, TGT, AMZN, HD, LOW | 🟢 Positive | The certification converts a scattered set of individual suits into a single route for tens of thousands of importers, and the largest importers carry the largest refund claims | 3/5 |
| NKE, DKS, ETSY | 🟢 Positive | ⚠️ inferred. A second-order beneficiary: smaller importers that could not afford to litigate individually now recover duty costs that had been absorbed into gross margin | 2/5 |
| XLF (banks) | 🟡 Watch | A core CPI print at 0.3% or above would revive back-to-back hike pricing and steepen the front end; an in-line 0.2% keeps the curve range-bound into the Fed | 2/5 |

---

*Policy Pulse — Trump / US Watch. Every headline above carries a stock-level inference; where a mapping is inferred rather than named it is marked ⚠️ and scored accordingly. No buy or sell recommendation is made — direction and confidence only. The US session was still open when this edition was written, so US index levels are intraday and the prior close is stated explicitly.*