---
title: "Syrma SGS Technology — Deep Dive Analysis"
ticker: "SYRMA"
date: "2026-10-10"
tags: ["deep-dive","fundamental","EMS","electronics","manufacturing"]
summary: "Revised deep dive: Syrma is up 22.6% to Rs 1,720 since our 4 August note, the trailing P/E has expanded to 89.3x, and average delivery has fallen to 28.2% from 37.3%. Q2 FY27 is not yet reported. Clarifies the two Rs 1,000 Cr QIPs and adds the Exchange Filings section. Verdict: CAUTION — priced for perfection."
model: "deepseek-v4-flash"
watchlist: true
priceAtAnalysis: 1720
support: 1670
resistance: 1823
supports: [1570, 1519]
resistances: [1933, 2084]
verdict: "CAUTION — PRICED FOR PERFECTION"
---

**Ticker:** SYRMA (NSE: SYRMA, BSE: 543573)
**Sector:** Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS) — Capital Goods / Industrial Manufacturing
**Price:** ₹1,719.90 (NSE close, 9 October 2026)
**52W High / Low:** ₹1,822.60 / ₹634.50
**Analysis Date:** 10 October 2026 — first published 4 August 2026, revised in place
**Data Source:** Screener.in consolidated (verified logged-in), TradingView daily technicals, NSE bhavcopy and corporate filings, company Q1 FY27 earnings call
**Model:** deepseek-v4-flash

---

## 1. Quick Snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| **Market Cap** | ₹33,165 Cr |
| **Current Price** | ₹1,719.90 |
| **52W High / Low** | ₹1,822.60 / ₹634.50 |
| **Stock P/E (TTM)** | 89.3x |
| **Industry P/E** | 34.9x |
| **Forward P/E (FY27E, base)** | ~61x |
| **PEG Ratio** | 2.26 (trailing) |
| **Book Value** | ₹148 (11.6x book) |
| **ROCE** | 16.8% |
| **ROE** | 14.0% |
| **EPS (TTM)** | ₹19.10 |
| **EPS (FY26)** | ₹16.48 |
| **Sales (TTM)** | ₹5,464 Cr |
| **PAT (FY26)** | ₹346 Cr |
| **Debt/Equity** | 0.14 |
| **Debtor Days** | 139 |
| **Dividend Yield** | 0.09% |
| **Graham Number** | ₹253 |
| **Piotroski Score** | 6.0/9 |
| **Earnings Yield** | 1.71% |
| **Return over 1 Year** | 104% |

**Credit Rating:** IND AA / Stable, CP at IND A1+ (India Ratings, May 2026)

---

## 2. What Changed Since 4 August 2026

| Metric | 4 Aug 2026 | 10 Oct 2026 | Change |
|--------|------------|-------------|--------|
| CMP | ₹1,403 | ₹1,719.90 | +22.6% |
| Market cap | ₹27,054 Cr | ₹33,165 Cr | +22.6% |
| Trailing P/E | 72.8x | 89.3x | Re-rated |
| PEG | 1.85 | 2.26 | More expensive |
| Price / book | 9.17x | 11.6x | Re-rated |
| 52-week high | ₹1,518 | ₹1,822.60 | New all-time high |
| Average delivery (15 sessions) | 37.3% | 28.18% | Weaker |
| Latest reported quarter | Q1 FY27 | Q1 FY27 (Q2 pending) | Unchanged |
| ₹1,000 Cr QIP | "Pending" | Still only authorised | Clarified below |
| Analyst consensus | Trendlyne ₹1,231 | Axis ₹1,956; Trendlyne ₹1,231 | Divergence widened |

Three things happened since the last revision, and two of them are not in the price.

**The stock re-rated again without new earnings.** Q2 FY27 had not been reported as of 9 October — no board-meeting intimation was even filed. The latest reported quarter remains Q1 FY27, so the earnings base is the same one this article was written on, yet the price is 22.6% higher and the trailing multiple has gone from 72.8x to 89.3x.

**Delivery quality fell materially.** The 15-session average is now **28.18%**, against 37.3% in August. The heaviest sessions carried the weakest delivery: 18 September printed 10.47 mn shares at 13.62%, 17 September 9.18 mn at 15.2%, and 30 September 3.79 mn at 22.58%. Those clusters line up with SEMICON India (17-19 September) and the run to the 1 October all-time high. High volume on low delivery is churn, not accumulation.

**The QIP framing needed correcting**, which is dealt with in its own section below.

What did improve: the business kept building capacity. The Kaga Electronics subsidiary was incorporated (18 August), the Elemaster joint-venture facility opened in Bengaluru (2 September), the Syrma Johri MedTech plant opened in Jodhpur (22 September), and Odisha announced a ₹300 Cr PCB assembly and box-build facility (21 August).

---

## 3. Business Overview

Syrma SGS Technology is a Chennai-headquartered **electronics manufacturing services (EMS)** and engineering-design company, formed from the merger of Syrma (a Tandon Group company, electronics manufacturing since the late 1970s) and SGS Tekniks (founded in the early 1990s, focused on automotive customers in North India).

**Core verticals (Q1 FY27 revenue mix):**
- **Consumer Electronics** — 34% (telecom, water-purification ODM)
- **Automotive** — 24% (including EV and charging)
- **Industrial** — 24% (including defence ex-maritime)
- **Healthcare** — 7% (healthcare RFID, MedTech)
- **IT & Railways** — 9%

**Key operating facts:**
- Roughly 75% domestic / 25% export; exports ₹387 Cr, +61% YoY (USA 22%, Europe 40%)
- **ODM (Original Design Manufacturing)** — ₹270 Cr in Q1 FY27, +100% YoY, 17% of revenue
- Top 5 customers = 38% of revenue
- Net cash ₹122 Cr; cash and investments ₹800+ Cr
- Adjusted annualised ROCE 20.1%

**Competitive moat:** high-mix, flexible-volume precision manufacturing across diverse end-markets; ODM capability commands premium pricing versus pure assembly; typically the #1 or #2 vendor for domestic customers; global wallet-share expansion runway (1-2% toward 4-6%).

---

## 4. Financial Performance

### Annual P&L (Consolidated — ₹ Cr)

| Particulars | Mar'22 | Mar'23 | Mar'24 | Mar'25 | Mar'26 |
|-------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| **Sales** | 1,267 | 2,048 | 3,154 | 3,787 | 4,819 |
| **Operating Profit** | 129 | 192 | 203 | 323 | 545 |
| **OPM %** | 10.2% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 11.3% |
| **Other Income** | 18 | 44 | 56 | 47 | 33 |
| **Interest** | 11 | 26 | 41 | 58 | 48 |
| **Depreciation** | 25 | 31 | 51 | 75 | 84 |
| **PBT** | 111 | 179 | 166 | 237 | 445 |
| **Net Profit** | 79 | 123 | 124 | 184 | 346 |
| **EPS (₹)** | 5.59 | 6.75 | 6.04 | 9.53 | 16.48 |

Revenue CAGR (FY22-FY26) approximately **40%**; profit CAGR approximately **45%**.

### Quarterly Trend (₹ Cr)

| Metric | Sep'25 | Dec'25 | Mar'26 | Jun'26 | YoY |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|-----|
| **Sales** | 1,146 | 1,264 | 1,465 | 1,589 | +68.3% |
| **Operating Profit** | 115 | 159 | 174 | 162 | +86% |
| **OPM %** | 10% | 13% | 12% | 10% | — |
| **Net Profit** | 66 | 110 | 119 | 105.7 | +111.7% |
| **EPS (₹)** | 3.33 | 5.33 | 5.25 | 5.19 | +86% |

### Key Takeaways
- Revenue surged to ₹1,589 Cr in Q1 FY27 (+68.3% YoY), an annualised run-rate of roughly ₹6,354 Cr
- PAT of ₹105.7 Cr grew 111.7% YoY but fell **-11.4% QoQ** on consumer-mix margin drag
- **Operating EBITDA margin of about 10.1% missed the 10.5% floor of FY27 guidance** (sources differ: CNBC-TV18 reported ₹161 Cr EBITDA at 10.1%, Tijori reported ₹177 Cr at 11.1%; the lower reading is consistent with management's own commentary that Q1 came in below the band)
- Growth was driven by consumer (telecom, water-purification ODM), IT and railways; defence and smart metering were subdued
- **Q2 FY27 had not been reported as of 9 October 2026.** Q2 FY26 was reported on 10 November 2025, and the SEBI deadline is around 14 November 2026, so expect the result in late October to mid-November

---

## 5. Balance Sheet Health (Consolidated — ₹ Cr)

| Particulars | Mar'22 | Mar'23 | Mar'24 | Mar'25 | Mar'26 |
|-------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| **Equity Capital** | 138 | 177 | 177 | 178 | 193 |
| **Reserves** | 434 | 1,364 | 1,435 | 1,572 | 2,670 |
| **Borrowings** | 218 | 375 | 630 | 665 | **400** |
| **Other Liabilities** | 364 | 628 | 1,446 | 1,788 | 2,508 |
| **Total Liabilities/Assets** | 1,154 | 2,543 | 3,688 | 4,202 | 5,770 |
| **Fixed Assets** | 378 | 532 | 1,075 | 1,144 | 1,463 |
| **Investments** | 41 | 84 | 42 | 59 | 547 |
| **Other Assets** | 694 | 1,901 | 2,554 | 2,933 | 3,693 |

**Key takeaways:**
- **Borrowings were cut** from ₹665 Cr (Mar'25) to ₹400 Cr (Mar'26) — a ₹265 Cr reduction
- Debt/Equity is low at 0.14, and the company carries net cash of ₹122 Cr with ₹800+ Cr of cash and investments
- Reserves more than doubled to ₹2,670 Cr on retained profits
- Total equity stands at 192,830,485 shares of ₹10 face value (19.283 Cr shares), confirmed in the 30 September 2026 SAST disclosure and consistent with market cap divided by price

---

## 6. Cash Flow Analysis (₹ Cr)

| Particulars | Mar'23 | Mar'24 | Mar'25 | Mar'26 |
|-------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| **Cash from Operations (CFO)** | -70 | -109 | 176 | **290** |
| **Cash from Investing (CFI)** | -885 | -9 | -103 | -742 |
| **Cash from Financing (CFF)** | 968 | 150 | -71 | 558 |
| **Net Cash Flow** | 13 | 32 | 2 | 105 |
| **Free Cash Flow** | -188 | -446 | 4 | **114** |
| **CFO/OP Ratio** | -16% | -27% | 73% | 70% |

**Key takeaways:**
- **CFO turned strongly positive** (+₹290 Cr in FY26) after negative years in FY23 and FY24 — a real working-capital improvement
- CFO/OP of 70% is healthy cash conversion
- Heavy capex (₹742 Cr CFI) funds the capacity expansion (new plants, PCB/CCL, acquisitions)
- **Working capital days have widened** — Screener's current figure is 68.2 days, up from 46.9, and the June quarter saw a strategic inventory build of ₹203.91 Cr against supply-chain constraints. Management expects normalisation

---

## 7. Shareholding Pattern

| Holder | Mar'24 | Mar'25 | Mar'26 | Jun'26 |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| **Promoters** | 46.89% | 46.53% | 42.28% | **42.28%** |
| **FIIs** | 12.95% | 6.20% | 6.60% | **7.51%** |
| **DIIs** | 5.80% | 7.74% | 16.59% | **15.90%** |
| **Public** | 34.36% | 39.49% | 34.41% | **34.17%** |

**Key trends:**
- **Promoter holding has fallen from 47.27% (Mar'23) to 42.28% (Jun'26)** — a 4.99 percentage point decline, partly the 2025 QIP. Promoter pledge is **zero**
- **DIIs at 15.90%** remain the dominant institutional holder after surging from 5.80%, though the June quarter was marginally lower than March
- **FIIs rose to 7.51%** from 6.60%, and the number of FII/FPI holders increased from 177 to 221 — broader participation
- **The September 2026 shareholding pattern had not been filed as of 9 October** (the deadline is around 21 October), so June remains the latest available
- **Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund sold 110,190 shares on 30 September 2026**, disclosed under SAST on 1 October, trimming from 3.069% to 3.012%. A 0.057 percentage point reduction — small, but it is a marquee holder reducing into strength

---

## 8. Order Book & Revenue Visibility

| Metric | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27 |
|--------|---------|---------|
| **Order Book** | ₹6,400 Cr | **₹6,770 Cr** |
| **Executable in 12 months** | — | ₹5,400 Cr |
| **Order Intake (quarter)** | — | ₹1,781 Cr |
| **Avg execution period** | — | 10-10.5 months |

**Order book composition:** Automotive 29%, Consumer 30%, Industrial 24%, Healthcare 7%, IT/Railways 9%.

**No new order-win or contract announcement was filed with the NSE between 4 August and 9 October 2026.** The order book disclosed to media remained ₹6,770 Cr as at end-June. What did happen was capacity and joint-venture expansion:

- **Odisha facility (21 August 2026)** — the state government announced Syrma SGS will set up a printed circuit board assembly and box-build facility with a **₹300 Cr investment**
- **Kaga Electronics subsidiary (18 August 2026)** — incorporation of a subsidiary jointly with Kaga Electronics India (Syrma up to 60%, Kaga up to 40%), an EMS facility aimed at Japanese customers
- **Syrma SGS Elemaster facility (2 September 2026)** — a 20,000 sq ft high-reliability electronics plant inaugurated at Bommasandra, Bengaluru (SMT, through-hole and box-build lines for railway/transport, industrial, energy and medical), via the 60:40 JV with Italy's Elemaster
- **Syrma Johri MedTech facility (22 September 2026)** — a new medical-plastics and precision-moulding plant inaugurated at Jodhpur
- **PCB/CCL at Naidupeta, Andhra Pradesh** (~₹1,800 Cr, JV with South Korea's Shinhyup Electronics) — trial production guided around March-April 2027
- **SEMICON India 2026** — participated, 17-19 September, New Delhi

**18 new customers were onboarded in Q1 FY27** with estimated ₹1,000+ Cr of incremental potential, ramping through FY28-29.

---

## 9. The QIP Position — a Correction

The previous version of this article referred to a "pending ₹1,000 Cr QIP" carrying about 7% dilution. That conflated two separate events, and the distinction matters.

**The ₹1,000 Cr QIP that actually completed did so in August 2025.** The floor price was ₹735.61 (relevant date 7 August 2025) and the issue was priced at **₹699 per share**; 14,306,151 shares were allotted, raising roughly ₹1,000 Cr for a **7.43% post-issue dilution**. Those shares have been trading since 18 August 2025, and the resulting 19.283 Cr share count is already reflected in every per-share figure in this article, including the TTM EPS of ₹19.10.

**The "pending" QIP is a separate authorisation.** At the 29 July 2026 board meeting the board authorised raising up to a further **₹1,000 Cr** through a QIP or other permitted modes, with terms, pricing and quantum to be decided later. **As of 9 October 2026 no launch, floor price, issue price or allotment filing exists for that authorisation.** It remains an unexercised option.

**What this means:** the dilution risk is real but prospective, not baked in. If the 2026 authorisation is exercised at anything like the current price, it would add roughly 6% to the share count — and it is worth noting that the board chose to authorise it while the stock was at record highs, which is a rational time to sell equity but also a signal about the funding needs of the capex programme.

---

## 10. Management Commentary (Q1 FY27 Earnings Call)

- **Revenue guidance:** 30-35% growth for FY27, tracking close to the ~35% upper band
- **EBITDA margin target:** 10.5-11% for FY27. Q1 came in below the lower end, attributed to a consumer mix of 34% against a ~30% target
- **Defence:** 30-35% growth guided, with plans to expand offerings beyond the existing Elcome portfolio over three to five years
- **Healthcare/MedTech:** 50% growth guided for Syrma Johri
- **Consumer:** full-year share expected to normalise to 30-32% from 34% on seasonality
- **Wallet-share expansion:** global wallet share expected to grow from 1-2% toward 4-6% over five to seven years
- **ODM strategy:** ODM revenue doubled YoY to ₹270 Cr, a key margin differentiator
- **Working capital:** the ₹203.91 Cr inventory build was strategic, tied to supply-chain constraints, with normalisation expected

No update to FY27 guidance was issued between 4 August and 9 October 2026. Post-results investor meetings were held on 10 August, 14 August, 3 September and 8-16 September.

---

## 11. Technical Analysis (TradingView, 9 October 2026)

**Summary: BUY** — Sell 2 / Neutral 9 / Buy 15
- Oscillators: Sell 1 / Neutral 8 / Buy 2
- Moving Averages: Sell 1 / Neutral 1 / Buy 13

### Oscillators

| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|-----------|-------|--------|
| RSI (14) | 56.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic %K (14,3,3) | 48.6 | Neutral |
| CCI (20) | 30.0 | Neutral |
| ADX (14) | 25.5 | Neutral (trend forming) |
| Awesome Oscillator | 112.1 | Neutral |
| Momentum (10) | 21.3 | Buy |
| MACD Level (12,26) | 50.2 | Sell |
| Stochastic RSI Fast | 17.9 | Neutral |
| Williams %R (14) | -62.2 | Neutral |
| Bull Bear Power | 11.0 | Buy |
| Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | 42.9 | Neutral |

### Moving Averages

| MA | Value | Signal |
|----|-------|--------|
| EMA (10) | 1,707.4 | Buy |
| SMA (10) | 1,720.5 | Sell |
| EMA (20) | 1,674.6 | Buy |
| SMA (20) | 1,681.6 | Buy |
| EMA (50) | 1,570.3 | Buy |
| SMA (50) | 1,553.7 | Buy |
| EMA (100) | 1,425.2 | Buy |
| EMA (200) | 1,221.1 | Buy |
| SMA (200) | 1,123.9 | Buy |
| VWMA (20) | 1,691.7 | Buy |
| Hull MA (9) | 1,702.5 | Buy |

**EMA ladder remains fully bullish:** EMA10 (1,707) > EMA20 (1,675) > EMA50 (1,570) > EMA100 (1,425) > EMA200 (1,221). Price sits above every average except the 10-day SMA at ₹1,720.5, which reads a whisker above it — the stock is effectively pinned to its 10-day average.

### Pivot Levels (Classic)

| Level | Price | Level | Price |
|-------|-------|-------|-------|
| R3 | ₹2,498.50 | S1 | ₹1,518.90 |
| R2 | ₹2,084.00 | S2 | ₹1,255.00 |
| R1 | ₹1,933.40 | S3 | ₹840.50 |
| Pivot | ₹1,669.50 | | |

### Performance

| Period | Return | Period | Return |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| 1 Week | +0.12% | 6 Months | +102.96% |
| 1 Month | +6.01% | YTD | +134.59% |
| 3 Months | +19.35% | 1 Year | +109.30% |

### Key Observations
- **The uptrend has stalled, not reversed.** Price has consolidated in a ₹1,675-1,785 band for six to seven weeks after the run to the all-time high
- **ADX at 25.5** — trend conviction is present but not strong
- **RSI 56.7 and Stochastic 48.6** — mid-range, neither overbought nor oversold
- **MACD Sell at 50.2** — short-term momentum is soft after the peak
- The gap between the 10-day EMA (₹1,707) and the 50-day EMA (₹1,570) is wide, which is typical after a fast advance and means a normal mean-reversion pullback would be deep

---

## 12. NSE Delivery Data (Last 15 Trading Sessions)

| Date | Close | Volume | Del % |
|------|-------|--------|-------|
| 09-Oct-26 | 1,719.90 | 9,80,252 | 31.82% |
| 08-Oct-26 | 1,680.90 | 9,04,837 | 40.70% |
| 07-Oct-26 | 1,746.70 | 18,14,188 | 29.11% |
| 06-Oct-26 | 1,685.10 | 8,17,702 | 32.15% |
| 05-Oct-26 | 1,700.40 | 8,46,292 | 33.87% |
| 01-Oct-26 | 1,717.90 | 18,74,242 | 26.40% |
| 30-Sep-26 | 1,782.90 | 37,88,979 | 22.58% |
| 29-Sep-26 | 1,692.60 | 11,11,808 | 36.35% |
| 28-Sep-26 | 1,746.40 | 18,59,395 | 34.87% |
| 25-Sep-26 | 1,732.60 | 10,26,235 | 21.29% |
| 24-Sep-26 | 1,698.60 | 8,41,054 | 25.43% |
| 23-Sep-26 | 1,719.40 | 14,00,218 | 30.75% |
| 22-Sep-26 | 1,741.80 | 40,23,734 | 21.59% |
| 21-Sep-26 | 1,713.30 | 18,38,433 | 22.21% |
| 18-Sep-26 | 1,728.90 | 1,04,74,149 | 13.62% |

**Average delivery: 28.18%** (min 13.62%, max 40.70%) on an average volume of 22.40 lakh shares.

### Key Findings
- **Delivery has deteriorated sharply against August's 37.3% average.** At 28.18% the conviction behind this advance is materially weaker
- **The heaviest volume went with the worst delivery.** 18 September traded 1.05 crore shares at 13.62% delivery; 17 September 91.8 lakh at 15.2%; 30 September 37.9 lakh at 22.58%. These clusters coincide with SEMICON India and the run into the 1 October all-time high
- The two best delivery readings in the window, 8 October at 40.70% and 23 September at 30.75%, came on unremarkable volume
- **The August article flagged a results-day churn signature on 30 July (9.95 mn shares, 14.7% delivery).** That pattern has now repeated three more times rather than resolving, which is the single most important deterioration since that note

---

## 13. Bulk/Block Deals & Institutional Activity

**Bulk/block deals:** no bulk or block deal occurred between 4 August and 9 October 2026. The most recent on record remains 12 November 2025 (1,036,049 shares at about ₹880.31).

**Promoter activity:** no promoter selling in the window, and **promoter pledge remains zero**. Holding is unchanged at 42.28%.

**SAST disclosure:** **Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund sold 110,190 shares on 30 September 2026**, trimming its holding from 3.069% to 3.012% (disclosed 1 October 2026). Small, but it is a large holder selling into record highs.

**Institutional context:** DIIs hold 15.90% and FIIs 7.51%; the FII holder count rose from 177 to 221. Institutional total is 23.42%.

---

## 14. Forward PE & Valuation

**Share count:** 19.283 Cr shares (₹192.83 Cr equity capital at ₹10 face value). A further ₹1,000 Cr QIP at anything near the current price would add roughly 6% dilution.

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| FY26 EPS | ₹16.48 |
| TTM EPS | ₹19.10 |
| Q1 FY27 EPS | ₹5.19 (vs ₹2.79 in Q1 FY26) |

### Valuation at CMP (₹1,719.90)

| Scenario | FY27 PAT | FY27 EPS (pre-QIP) | FY27 EPS (post ~6% dilution) | Fwd P/E @ CMP |
|----------|----------|--------------------|------------------------------|---------------|
| **Bear** (PAT +20%) | ~₹415 Cr | ₹21.5 | ₹20.3 | ~85x |
| **Base** (PAT +35%) | ~₹467 Cr | ₹24.2 | ₹22.8 | ~75x |
| **Bull** (PAT +50%) | ~₹519 Cr | ₹26.9 | ₹25.4 | ~68x |

**Even the bull case leaves the stock on roughly 68x forward earnings against an industry P/E of 34.9x** — still a near-2x premium.

### Analyst Consensus

| Source | Target | vs ₹1,719.90 |
|--------|--------|--------------|
| Axis Capital (25 Sep 2026, BUY, raised from ₹1,605) | ₹1,956 | +13.7% |
| Goldman/LSEG median (24 analysts) | ₹1,615.50 | -6.1% |
| AlphaSpread average | ₹1,647.81 | -4.2% |
| Trendlyne consensus | ₹1,230.80 | -28.4% |
| Jefferies (17 Sep 2026) | HOLD, citing 57x | — |

The divergence has widened rather than closed. Axis Capital raised its target 22% to ₹1,956 on the order book and PCB backward integration, while the LSEG median sits *below* the market price and Trendlyne's consensus implies a 28% drawdown. When the bulls' target is 14% above and the median is 6% below, the market is priced somewhere the analysts do not agree exists.

---

## 15. Key Risks

| Severity | Risk | Detail |
|----------|------|--------|
| **High** | **Valuation** | 89.3x trailing, 68-85x forward versus 34.9x industry; 11.6x book |
| **High** | **Delivery deterioration** | 15-session average down to 28.18%; heavy sessions at 13.6-15.2% delivery |
| **High** | **QIP overhang** | ₹1,000 Cr authorisation unexercised; ~6% prospective dilution |
| **Medium** | **Margin miss** | Q1 EBITDA margin ~10.1% against the guided 10.5-11% floor |
| **Medium** | **Earnings visibility gap** | Q2 FY27 unreported as of 9 October; the price moved 22.6% on unchanged earnings |
| **Medium** | **Working capital** | Days widened to 68.2 from 46.9; ₹203.91 Cr inventory build |
| **Medium** | **Promoter holding declining** | 4.99 percentage points over three years (partly QIP) |
| **Medium** | **Execution risk** | ₹1,800 Cr PCB/CCL plant, Kaga JV, Elemaster JV, MedTech and Odisha facilities all ramping |
| **Medium** | **Customer concentration** | Top 5 = 38% of revenue; consumer and telecom cyclicality |
| **Low** | **Competition** | Dixon and other EMS peers; intense segment competition |
| **Low** | **Pledge** | Zero promoter pledge; net cash ₹122 Cr |

---

## 16. Screener.in Pros & Cons

**Pros**
- Company has reduced debt (₹665 Cr to ₹400 Cr)
- Expected to give a good quarter
- Good profit growth, 36.3% CAGR over five years

**Cons**
- Stock trading at **11.6x book** (was 9.17x in August)
- Low return on equity, 10.4% over three years
- Promoter holding decreased 4.94% over three years
- **Working capital days increased from 46.9 to 68.2 days**

---

## 17. Bull vs Bear Case

### Bull Case
1. Revenue +68.3% YoY in Q1 FY27 with PAT +111.7%; FY27 guidance of 30-35% intact
2. ₹6,770 Cr order book with ₹5,400 Cr executable within 12 months — strong visibility
3. ODM transformation (+100% YoY) is margin-accretive and differentiates versus pure assembly
4. Capacity being built across five fronts: Kaga JV (Japan), Elemaster (Europe, Bengaluru), Syrma Johri MedTech (Jodhpur), Odisha PCB (₹300 Cr) and the Naidupeta PCB/CCL plant
5. Balance sheet strength: net cash, zero pledge, IND AA/Stable with CP at A1+
6. Structural tailwinds: EMS outsourcing, Make-in-India, Semicon 2.0, ECMS, MPMS
7. Axis Capital raised its target 22% to ₹1,956

### Bear Case
1. **89.3x trailing, 68-85x forward versus a 34.9x industry** — the multiple expanded 22% in two months on unchanged earnings
2. **Delivery has fallen to 28.18%** and the heaviest sessions print 13.6-15.2% — four churn signatures now, not one
3. **Q2 FY27 is unreported**, so the re-rating rests on no new information
4. **Trendlyne consensus of ₹1,230.80 implies -28.4%**, and the LSEG median (₹1,615.50) also sits below the price
5. Q1 EBITDA margin missed the guided floor at ~10.1% and PAT fell 11.4% QoQ
6. Working capital days widened to 68.2 from 46.9
7. **Franklin Templeton trimmed into record highs**
8. ₹1,000 Cr QIP authorisation is an unquantified dilution overhang
9. Heavy multi-front capex — five simultaneous ramps is a lot of execution to underwrite

---

## 18. Final Verdict

### **CAUTION — Growth Intact, Valuation and Conviction Both Stretched**

**Rating unchanged at CAUTION, with the case for patience now stronger than in August.**

Syrma SGS remains a genuine quality-growth EMS platform. Revenue grew 68.3% in Q1 FY27, the order book is ₹6,770 Cr with ₹5,400 Cr executable within a year, the balance sheet carries net cash and zero pledge, the credit rating is IND AA/Stable with CP at A1+, and the company is building capacity across five fronts at once. The structural story has if anything improved.

What has deteriorated is the price of it, and the conviction behind it:

- **The stock is up 22.6% since our August note on unchanged reported earnings.** Q2 FY27 has not been published. The trailing multiple went from 72.8x to 89.3x
- **Average delivery fell from 37.3% to 28.18%**, and the heaviest sessions carried the weakest delivery readings. The churn signature we flagged as a one-off on 30 July has now repeated on 17-18 September and 30 September
- **The QIP that was "pending" was mis-described previously.** The dilution risk is prospective, not realised — but it exists, and the board authorised it at record highs
- **Even a bull-case FY27 leaves the stock on ~68x forward earnings**, and the analyst consensus median sits below the market price

The August note recommended not chasing above ₹1,405-1,450 and waiting for either a pullback to ₹1,260-1,300 or a confirmed breakout above ₹1,471. In the event the stock broke out — it reached ₹1,822.60 on 1 October — so the breakout condition was met and the setup worked. But it worked on 6.5 crore shares of low-delivery turnover, and the price has since stalled in a six-week range.

### Recommended Approach
- **Not a chase at ₹1,720.** The stock is 5.6% below its all-time high, in a stalled range, on falling delivery and an expanding multiple
- **Preferred entry:** a pullback into **₹1,570-1,675** (the 50-day EMA and the pivot / 20-day EMA confluence), or a decisive close above **₹1,823** (the all-time high) on delivery above 40%
- **Avoid** adding into strength between ₹1,750 and ₹1,823 until delivery improves
- **Stop-loss discipline:** below ₹1,519 (S1 pivot) the six-week range breaks down, and the next structural support is the 50-day EMA at ₹1,570, then ₹1,425 (the 100-day EMA)

### What Would Change This View
- **Bullish:** Q2 FY27 beating on margin (EBITDA above 10.5%); delivery recovering above 35% on up-days; the QIP priced at a premium with strong institutional demand; a close above ₹1,823 with volume
- **Bearish:** another margin miss; continued QoQ PAT decline; working capital days widening further; a discounted QIP; a break below ₹1,519

### Suitable Investor Profile
- Growth investors with a 3-5 year horizon who accept high valuation and volatility risk
- Swing traders only on confirmed setups, never on a stalled range
- **Not suitable** for value investors or anyone seeking a margin of safety at 89x earnings

---

## 19. Swing Trade Assessment (25-Point Checklist)

| # | Checklist Item | Score | Notes |
|---|----------------|-------|-------|
| 1 | Price Position | Pass | 5.6% below the all-time high of ₹1,822.60 |
| 2 | Trend | Pass | Uptrend intact; ATH on 1 Oct; YTD +134.6% |
| 3 | Volume Characteristics | Caution | Average volume rose to 22.4 lakh but delivery fell to 28.18% |
| 4 | Clean Price Action | Pass | Orderly six-week consolidation, ₹1,675-1,785 |
| 5 | EMA Alignment | Pass | EMA10 > 20 > 50 > 100 > 200, all rising; price above all bar SMA10 |
| 6 | Chart Pattern & Base | Pass | Consolidation after the breakout to a new all-time high |
| 7 | Base Quality | Caution | Current base is short; the move overall is extended |
| 8 | ADR | Pass | Roughly 2-3% daily range, tradable |
| 9 | Primary Uptrend | Pass | Firmly bullish on both micro and macro |
| 10 | Follow One Model | Pass | Momentum/breakout model fits |
| 11 | Sector Strength | Pass | EMS remains a leading complex |
| 12 | Tailwind | Pass | Make-in-India, PLI, EMS outsourcing, Semicon 2.0 |
| 13 | IPO Consideration | Pass | Listed 2022; established, post-QIP base traded through |
| 14 | Price Action Strength | Pass | 1Y +109.3%, 6M +103.0% |
| 15 | Sector & Govt Boost | Pass | ECMS, MPMS, India's PCB/electronics push |
| 16 | Fundamental Quality | Caution | Strong growth but ROE 10.4% (3yr), 11.6x book, WC days widening |
| 17 | Quarterly Earnings Growth | Pass | Revenue +68.3%, PAT +111.7% YoY (well above the 30-50% bar) |
| 18 | Delivery Percentage | **Fail** | 28.18% average; four low-delivery churn signatures |
| 19 | News & Institutional | Caution | Positive capacity news, but Franklin Templeton trimmed into highs |
| 20 | Risk Management | Pass | Entry, stop and targets defined above |
| 21 | Market Environment | **Fail** | The Nifty fell to a 52-week low of 22,216 on 8 October |
| 22 | Liquidity | Pass | Average volume 22.4 lakh shares |
| 23 | Relative Strength | Pass | Decisively outperforming a falling market |
| 24 | Breakout Confirmation | Caution | The 1 October breakout to ATH was not held; price back to ₹1,720 |
| 25 | Trading Psychology | Caution | After +134.6% YTD at 89x, discipline says wait |

**Total Score: 20/25** — moderate. Two outright fails: delivery quality (18) and market environment (21). Note that the score is unchanged from August while the risk has risen, because the technical trend is still intact — the score measures setup quality, not value.

### Trade Setup

| Parameter | Level |
|-----------|-------|
| **Preferred Entry** | ₹1,570-1,675 (50-day EMA / pivot / 20-day EMA zone) |
| **Breakout Entry** | Confirmed close above ₹1,823 on delivery >40% |
| **Stop Loss** | Below ₹1,519 (S1 pivot) |
| **Target 1** | ₹1,823 (all-time high) |
| **Target 2** | ₹1,933 (R1 pivot) |
| **Risk:Reward** | Approximately 1:2 from the support entry |

---

## 20. Exchange Filings & Material Announcements

Recent NSE filings that can affect the price or finances:

- **18 Aug 2026 — Incorporation of a subsidiary jointly with Kaga Electronics India** (Syrma up to 60%, Kaga up to 40%), an EMS facility aimed at Japanese customers. [NSE filing](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/SYRMASGS_18082026221834_SyrmaReg30DisclIncorpofSKEPLSigned.pdf)
- **2 Sep 2026 — Syrma SGS Elemaster inaugurated a 20,000 sq ft high-reliability electronics facility at Bommasandra, Bengaluru** (SMT, through-hole and box-build lines for railway, industrial, energy and medical electronics). [NSE filing](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/SYRMASGS_02092026141525_SEDisclElemaster.pdf)
- **22 Sep 2026 — Syrma Johri MedTech inaugurated a medical-plastics and precision-moulding facility at Jodhpur.** [NSE filing](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/SYRMASGS_22092026120309_DisclosureSJMLInauguration.pdf)
- **21 Sep 2026 — Appointment of Jayesh Nagindas Doshi as Whole-Time Director** with effect from 25 August 2026. [NSE filing](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/SYRMASGS_21092026183839_Wtdclarification21092026.pdf)
- **4 Aug 2026 — Q1 FY27 earnings-call transcript** for the quarter ended 30 June 2026. [NSE filing](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/SYRMASGS_04082026173046_EarningsCallTranscriptReg30June3026Signed.pdf)
- **28 Sep 2026 — Trading-window closure ahead of the Q2 FY27 results**, confirming the quarter had not yet been reported. [NSE filing](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/SYRMASGS_28092026170627_ClosureoftradingWindowforQ2FY2027SyrmaSGSSigned.pdf)

---

## Disclaimer & Sources

This analysis is for **educational and informational purposes only** and does **not** constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

**Revision history:** first published 4 August 2026 at ₹1,403 with a rating of CAUTION and a 20/25 checklist. Revised in place on 10 October 2026 with the current price and technicals, refreshed delivery data, the September quarter status, a corrected account of the two ₹1,000 Cr QIPs, post-August capacity announcements, updated analyst targets, and a new Exchange Filings section.

**Sources:** Screener.in consolidated (verified logged-in session, 27 metrics), TradingView daily technicals for NSE:SYRMA, NSE bhavcopy delivery data for the 15 sessions through 9 October 2026, NSE corporate announcements and the nsearchives filing PDFs linked above (all verified reachable), the Q1 FY27 earnings call and transcript, India Ratings press release (May 2026), QIP documents for the August 2025 issue, and analyst notes from Axis Capital, Jefferies, LSEG, Trendlyne and AlphaSpread.

**Model:** deepseek-v4-flash