BAC
1 deep-dive · 7 policy notes
What has moved BAC
14 dated calls from the policy coverage · 5 positive · 3 negative · 6 watch
- Watch2026-10-15
A steeper front end helps net interest income and hurts securities books. Bank of America fell 4.8% on a weaker quarter and $1.2 billion in Treasury fines for alleged anti-money-laundering and sanctions violations; State Street fell 4.1% on a revenue miss
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-12
A steeper curve helps net interest margins, but a 24-year-high long end with a contested Fed governance process adds funding and mark-to-market risk
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 12 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-12
A contested Fed governance process adds a term premium at the long end and clouds the rate path that sets net interest margins; steeper curves help, uncertainty does not
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 12 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-12
The Q3 bank print is the first read on how a hiking Fed and a 24-year-high long end are flowing through net interest income and credit costs
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 12 Oct 2026 - Negative2026-10-01
US financials posted their biggest monthly drop in more than three years in September as long yields rose. Steepening that comes from the long end is not good steepening for bank books
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-01
A congressional trading ban would have been a small, symbolic negative for retail-flow narratives and a non-event for institutional volumes. Its failure is neutral for the banks
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 01 Oct 2026 - Negative2026-09-30
Banks led the September 29 decline and face a higher forward funding curve against a flat long-asset yield
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-30
Banks were the September 29 laggards and are the natural snap-back if the front end stops pricing an October hike
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026 - Negative2026-09-30
Banks led Tuesday's decline and are the most exposed to a long-end repricing that raises funding costs and compresses net interest margin forward curves
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-16
Higher policy rates and a steeper curve lift net interest margins and reinvestment yields
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 16 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-16
A hike widens net interest margins and the steeper curve improves reinvestment yields; the rate-hike repricing is the clearest beneficiary trade
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-15
A steeper curve with higher-for-longer policy rates supports net interest margins
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 15 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-15
A steeper curve and higher-for-longer policy rate support net interest margins; financials were the rotation destination on Monday
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Sep 2026 - Watch2026-09-15
Deposit-flight risk from stablecoin rewards is the banks' stated objection; a clean procedural win reduces the tail risk of outright prohibition
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Sep 2026
Deep-dive research
Mentioned in Policy Pulse
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026
G20 trade ministers endorsed a Milwaukee Framework on steel overcapacity as Greer put the MFN principle itself up for review, while a Section 301 overcapacity probe covering 16 economies including India remains the unexercised risk to SUNPHARMA, WELSPUNLIV and BHARATFORG. Brent went back above $100 on China's fuel-export halt, lifting XOM and CVX against DAL and CCL, the US 10-year held near 5.28% after its biggest quarterly gain since 1994, and Micron's blowout quarter drove a 2.9-3.3% Nikkei rally.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 01 Oct 2026
Trump Media filed the S-4 for its all-stock merger with TAE Technologies, turning DJT into one of the first publicly listed commercial fusion developers. The White House Super Intelligence order added no compliance burden on NVDA, AVGO and MSFT, while the Senate killed the Stop Insider Trading Act 53-47 and the July disclosure showed pure buys in SO and PSA. Boeing took a $20bn-plus Navy F/A-XX award against NOC, and Micron's blowout quarter lifted Nasdaq futures as Brent went back above $100.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026
The G20 Trade Ministerial opened in Milwaukee on steel excess capacity, MFN erosion and forced labour - the same ground as the Section 301 tariffs under challenge at the Court of International Trade - while core PCE at 3.0% cut October Fed hike odds from 71% to 35% and eased the front end. Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline and Yanbu loadings, Gulf exports recovered to 23.3 mbpd with Brent near $103, and India kept 0% Section 232 tariffs on specialty drugs, supporting SUNPHARMA and DRREDDY.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026
Core PCE cooled to 3.0% and cut the priced odds of an October hike from 71% to 35%, sending short-dated yields lower and equity indices higher, while the Section 301 forced-labour tariffs - 10-12.5% on 86 countries covering 99.4% of US imports - went before the Court of International Trade and Trump credited a $15bn Iowa steel mill to his 50% steel tariffs. Canada's $1bn alcohol and dairy import ban is live, and the July 278-T showed 1,156 trades including Strategy bought at the 2026 lows.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 16 Sep 2026
Brent held above USD 108 after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline went offline, the Fed is set to deliver its first hike since 2023 with a 25bp move 94% priced, and the BoJ meets September 17-18 expected to lift rates to a 31-year high of 1.25%. ONGC and OIL gain on the crude bid while IOC, BPCL and HINDPETRO absorb negative marketing margins.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Sep 2026
The Senate kills the CLARITY Act 49-50, sending COIN down ~10% and CRCL 8-11% and closing crypto's legislative route for 2026, while a 25bp Fed hike is 94% priced into tonight's decision with the 10-year at 4.995%. Trump's $1.4bn crypto income and the bill's blind-trust ethics clause made this a leader-trade story.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Sep 2026
Trump rejected Anthropic's AI slowdown call outright - 'whoever wins AI wins' - removing policy risk from the NVDA/AVGO/VRT capex trade even as the 10-year crossed 5% and hike odds topped 90% into tomorrow's FOMC. Canada's Section 338 product changes took effect today (ATVs and dairy in, road salt and cement out) and the Senate holds its 60-vote CLARITY Act test this afternoon (COIN, HOOD).