CAT
0 deep-dives · 8 policy notes
What has moved CAT
11 dated calls from the policy coverage · 3 positive · 4 negative · 4 watch
- Negative2026-10-15inferred
Capital-goods names are the most direct equity expression of a higher cost of capital meeting a capex cycle, and Caterpillar was the Dow's worst performer on October 15
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-09
Agricultural, timber and seafood market access is the core of the US export list; farm-equipment demand tracks the same trade channel
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 09 Oct 2026 - Negative2026-10-08
Industrials led Wednesday's US losses, down 2.18%, with Caterpillar -5.8% — the sector that discounts future volumes hardest when the long end reprices
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 08 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-08
US capital-goods exporters carry the retaliation tail-risk if the 300% threat converts into action
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 08 Oct 2026 - Negative2026-10-08
Industrials were the single worst sector on Wednesday and the rate-sensitive capex complex is where a 5.28% ten-year bites hardest
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 08 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-05
Capital-goods exports are the most likely target of reciprocal action if overcapacity duties land on trading partners' machinery sectors
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 05 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-01
Canada's retaliatory posture and the US import bans on Canadian alcohol, motorcycles and dairy run through integrated North American supply chains. A Canada-India deal by year end is a separate and smaller channel
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-09-30
Weaponisation of trade in food" and agricultural market access are the agri-equipment read-through, with the US-China Board of Trade agri working group as the live mechanism
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-30
US agricultural and equipment access improves through China's list and the Board of Trade's agri working group
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026 - Negative2026-09-30
Canada's retaliation explicitly names agricultural equipment and steel; US machinery exporters wear the counter-tariff and the procurement exclusion
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-30
Agricultural commodities and equipment access improves; China's list explicitly includes US agricultural goods and coal
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026
Mentioned in Policy Pulse
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 09 Oct 2026
Brent slipped to about USD 103 after Trump ruled out an Iran strike before the November 3 midterms, negative for XOM and CVX and positive for airlines and Indian oil marketers; a strong 30-year auction pulled the US long end back from a 24-year high; and the US-China 30-for-30 tariff lists named toys and appliances and medical devices, with the truce extended to January 10, 2027.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 08 Oct 2026
Brent rose 4.25 percent to USD 104.5 after Axios reported the Pentagon has been told to prepare for a possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran and Tropical Storm Isaias shut in a quarter of Gulf of Mexico output, positive for XOM, CVX and ONGC and negative for DAL, IOC and BPCL; hawkish September FOMC minutes kept the 10-year near 5.28 percent and the 30-year at 2002 levels, and India joined the US-led 15-country excess-capacity initiative while a Section 301 investigation into India's own industrial policies remains live.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 08 Oct 2026
Trump's August financial disclosure showed 517 trades including the largest single position of the month, up to USD 25 million of META, plus USD 1-5 million of SPCX notes bought two days before a national space transportation policy targeting 1,000 launches a year by 2030; completion of Trump Accounts auto-enrolment for nearly 70 million children is positive for HOOD and SCHW. The indefinite de minimis suspension reaches its October 22 compliance date, positive for LLY, MRK and PFE by removing personal-importation arbitrage and negative for WMT and TGT on per-parcel cost.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026
G20 trade ministers endorsed a Milwaukee Framework on steel overcapacity as Greer put the MFN principle itself up for review, while a Section 301 overcapacity probe covering 16 economies including India remains the unexercised risk to SUNPHARMA, WELSPUNLIV and BHARATFORG. Brent went back above $100 on China's fuel-export halt, lifting XOM and CVX against DAL and CCL, the US 10-year held near 5.28% after its biggest quarterly gain since 1994, and Micron's blowout quarter drove a 2.9-3.3% Nikkei rally.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026
The G20 Trade Ministerial opened in Milwaukee on steel excess capacity, MFN erosion and forced labour - the same ground as the Section 301 tariffs under challenge at the Court of International Trade - while core PCE at 3.0% cut October Fed hike odds from 71% to 35% and eased the front end. Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline and Yanbu loadings, Gulf exports recovered to 23.3 mbpd with Brent near $103, and India kept 0% Section 232 tariffs on specialty drugs, supporting SUNPHARMA and DRREDDY.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026
Core PCE cooled to 3.0% and cut the priced odds of an October hike from 71% to 35%, sending short-dated yields lower and equity indices higher, while the Section 301 forced-labour tariffs - 10-12.5% on 86 countries covering 99.4% of US imports - went before the Court of International Trade and Trump credited a $15bn Iowa steel mill to his 50% steel tariffs. Canada's $1bn alcohol and dairy import ban is live, and the July 278-T showed 1,156 trades including Strategy bought at the 2026 lows.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US Watch — 23 Jul 2026
Section 122 tariff expires TOMORROW (Jul 24) — USTR missed replacement deadline, Wyden bill to repeal. Hormuz 12th night, Brent near 8. Generic drug tariff structural overhang continues. US retailers (WMT, TGT, COST, AMZN) biggest beneficiaries of Section 122 expiry.
Policy Pulse — Global — 15 Jul 2026
EU-US deal (15% ceiling) in effect, Section 301 deadline July 20, Section 122 expires July 24, USMCA enters annual review — TSLA, TCS, SUNPHARMA positioned across multi-tier tariff shifts.