GS
1 deep-dive · 15 policy notes
What has moved GS
20 dated calls from the policy coverage · 11 positive · 1 negative · 8 watch
- Watch2026-10-15
A steeper front end helps net interest income and hurts securities books. Bank of America fell 4.8% on a weaker quarter and $1.2 billion in Treasury fines for alleged anti-money-laundering and sanctions violations; State Street fell 4.1% on a revenue miss
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-13inferred
A steeper curve helps net interest margins, but a 30-year near 5.60% with a contested Fed governance process adds funding and mark-to-market risk
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 13 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-13
named. A 72% surge in equities revenue is the cleanest read on how much of the 2026 Wall Street boom is trading-desk rather than deal-fee driven
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 13 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-12
A steeper curve helps net interest margins, but a 24-year-high long end with a contested Fed governance process adds funding and mark-to-market risk
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 12 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-12
A contested Fed governance process adds a term premium at the long end and clouds the rate path that sets net interest margins; steeper curves help, uncertainty does not
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 12 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-12
The Q3 bank print is the first read on how a hiking Fed and a 24-year-high long end are flowing through net interest income and credit costs
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 12 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-09
A steeper-to-softer long end plus 80% odds of a hold relieves the mark-to-market drag on bank balance sheets without removing the rate tailwind
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 09 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-08inferred
Steep long-end yields plus a hawkish bias support net interest margins and trading revenue at the large banks
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 08 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-08
A 3.38% single-day fall in European banks on French fiscal risk is a funding-cost and sovereign-exposure story; US banks are better capitalised but not immune to a widening periphery spread
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 08 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-07
A steeper curve plus a record M&A and underwriting backdrop is the most direct beneficiary setup into next week's results
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 07 Oct 2026 - Negative2026-10-01
US financials posted their biggest monthly drop in more than three years in September as long yields rose. Steepening that comes from the long end is not good steepening for bank books
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-01
A congressional trading ban would have been a small, symbolic negative for retail-flow narratives and a non-event for institutional volumes. Its failure is neutral for the banks
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 01 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-09-16
Higher policy rates and a steeper curve lift net interest margins and reinvestment yields
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 16 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-16
A hike widens net interest margins and the steeper curve improves reinvestment yields; the rate-hike repricing is the clearest beneficiary trade
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-15
A steeper curve with higher-for-longer policy rates supports net interest margins
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 15 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-15
A steeper curve and higher-for-longer policy rate support net interest margins; financials were the rotation destination on Monday
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-11
A steeper curve and higher-for-longer rates support net interest margins and float income
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 11 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-11
A steeper curve and higher-for-longer rates support net interest margins; the 10s-30s spread moved to 31bp
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 11 Sep 2026 - Watch2026-09-10
Higher-for-longer policy supports margins but the ECB flags "risks to the upside for inflation and the downside for growth" — a stagflationary mix
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 10 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-10
Steeper curve and higher-for-longer rates support net interest margins
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 10 Sep 2026
Deep-dive research
Mentioned in Policy Pulse
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 13 Oct 2026
Goldman beat on a 72% surge in equities revenue while JPMorgan missed its first quarter in three years. Trump floated a US diesel export cap five days before the Graham Act's October 18 deadline, hitting VLO and PSX, and Trump Media pulled three crypto ETF filings as DJT fell 5% on a 32% approval rating.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 12 Oct 2026
The Justice Department opened an antitrust probe into the five networks in the White House television pool, an overhang for CMCSA, PARA, WBD and FOXA, and a federal judge ordered the administration to cancel its taxpayer-funded television advertisements. Foreign military sales reform took effect for LMT, RTX and NOC, importers won a class-action route to tariff refunds for WMT and TGT, and Brent above USD 106 kept DAL and UAL under pressure into bank earnings on Tuesday.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 09 Oct 2026
Brent slipped to about USD 103 after Trump ruled out an Iran strike before the November 3 midterms, negative for XOM and CVX and positive for airlines and Indian oil marketers; a strong 30-year auction pulled the US long end back from a 24-year high; and the US-China 30-for-30 tariff lists named toys and appliances and medical devices, with the truce extended to January 10, 2027.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 08 Oct 2026
Brent rose 4.25 percent to USD 104.5 after Axios reported the Pentagon has been told to prepare for a possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran and Tropical Storm Isaias shut in a quarter of Gulf of Mexico output, positive for XOM, CVX and ONGC and negative for DAL, IOC and BPCL; hawkish September FOMC minutes kept the 10-year near 5.28 percent and the 30-year at 2002 levels, and India joined the US-led 15-country excess-capacity initiative while a Section 301 investigation into India's own industrial policies remains live.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 07 Oct 2026
The EIA raised its 2026 Brent forecast 8 percent to about USD 98 and lifted Q4 2026 to USD 105 with 4.5 million barrels per day still shut in, positive for XOM, CVX and ONGC and negative for DAL, UAL and Indian refiners IOC and BPCL. The 30-year Treasury yield held near its highest since 2002 with the September FOMC minutes due tonight and CME pricing an October hike near 20 percent, while French OAT yields kept rising and the euro sat near a 17-month low. Spot gold above USD 4,167 with the rupee at a five-month low of 97.03 is a translation positive for TCS and INFY and an input-cost negative for TITAN and MRF.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026
G20 trade ministers endorsed a Milwaukee Framework on steel overcapacity as Greer put the MFN principle itself up for review, while a Section 301 overcapacity probe covering 16 economies including India remains the unexercised risk to SUNPHARMA, WELSPUNLIV and BHARATFORG. Brent went back above $100 on China's fuel-export halt, lifting XOM and CVX against DAL and CCL, the US 10-year held near 5.28% after its biggest quarterly gain since 1994, and Micron's blowout quarter drove a 2.9-3.3% Nikkei rally.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 01 Oct 2026
Trump Media filed the S-4 for its all-stock merger with TAE Technologies, turning DJT into one of the first publicly listed commercial fusion developers. The White House Super Intelligence order added no compliance burden on NVDA, AVGO and MSFT, while the Senate killed the Stop Insider Trading Act 53-47 and the July disclosure showed pure buys in SO and PSA. Boeing took a $20bn-plus Navy F/A-XX award against NOC, and Micron's blowout quarter lifted Nasdaq futures as Brent went back above $100.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 16 Sep 2026
Brent held above USD 108 after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline went offline, the Fed is set to deliver its first hike since 2023 with a 25bp move 94% priced, and the BoJ meets September 17-18 expected to lift rates to a 31-year high of 1.25%. ONGC and OIL gain on the crude bid while IOC, BPCL and HINDPETRO absorb negative marketing margins.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Sep 2026
The Senate kills the CLARITY Act 49-50, sending COIN down ~10% and CRCL 8-11% and closing crypto's legislative route for 2026, while a 25bp Fed hike is 94% priced into tonight's decision with the 10-year at 4.995%. Trump's $1.4bn crypto income and the bill's blind-trust ethics clause made this a leader-trade story.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Sep 2026
Trump rejected Anthropic's AI slowdown call outright - 'whoever wins AI wins' - removing policy risk from the NVDA/AVGO/VRT capex trade even as the 10-year crossed 5% and hike odds topped 90% into tomorrow's FOMC. Canada's Section 338 product changes took effect today (ATVs and dairy in, road salt and cement out) and the Senate holds its 60-vote CLARITY Act test this afternoon (COIN, HOOD).
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 11 Sep 2026
August CPI matched at 3.4% y/y but core ran 0.3% m/m, holding September Fed hike odds near 60% and the 10-year near 4.95% - a headwind for NVDA, MU and INTC into ORCL's AI cloud beat. Trump's USD 5,000 dividend pledge costs an estimated USD 1.2-1.35 trillion (TLT risk, GLD bid) and Canada's Section 338 scope changes land September 15 (F, GM, STLA).
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 10 Sep 2026
Hot August PPI (headline +5.4% y/y, energy +4.2%, diesel +24.1%) and crude back above USD 100 pushed the 10-year to a 2023 high and September hike odds near 66%. Trump's top-9 energy holdings gained USD 1.5-4.4M during the Iran war (CVX, COP, XOM, OXY); Canada tariffs escalate to import bans on dairy, alcohol and motorcycles (F, GM, STLA, HOG) while aluminium bars and rods face 50% (AA).
Policy Pulse — Trump — 15 Jul 2026
Trump primetime address July 16 + Section 122 tariff expiry July 24 + pharma onshoring deadline July 31 create 9-day policy window — XOM, LLY, BA positioned for key outcomes.
Policy Pulse — Global — 14 Jul 2026
Global cross-currents: Iran blockade drives oil stocks (XOM, ONGC) higher while hitting airlines (DAL, UAL); US-India trade talks progress; Indian defence exports surge 62% to record (HAL, BEL, SOLARINDS).
Policy Pulse — Trump — 14 Jul 2026
Trump's $81B tariff refunds and new exemption EO signal shifting trade stance — tailwinds for mega-cap importers (AAPL, MSFT, LLY), crypto platforms (COIN, MSTR), and energy (XOM).