MPC
0 deep-dives · 15 policy notes
What has moved MPC
20 dated calls from the policy coverage · 10 positive · 3 negative · 7 watch
- Positive2026-10-16inferred
US refiners with coastal and Gulf capacity are the physical counterparty for discounted Russian-origin barrels; a licensed diesel flow plus an unresolved secondary-tariff threat keeps the feedstock discount alive while capping the risk of a full embargo
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-16inferred
Refining margins depend on the crude-product spread, not the absolute crude price; a distillate-specific dislocation helps while a general crude decline compresses inventory value
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-15
traded. Both halves of the policy pull in the same direction for US refiners here: the licence secures discounted feedstock into the domestic system and there is no export cap on the table, so distillate cracks are being supplied rather than restrained
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-13
Distillate remains the tightest part of the barrel, and that is where refining margin is earned
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 13 Oct 2026 - Negative2026-10-13
Both halves of this policy push the same way for US refiners: an import licence adds product into the domestic diesel market, and an export cap would remove the outlet that has carried distillate cracks all quarter
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 13 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-12
Refiners earn the product crack, and distillate has been the tightest part of the barrel through this supply crisis
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 12 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-12
A diesel release narrows the product crack that has driven refining margins this quarter, while crude above $106 keeps feedstock costs elevated; the two partly cancel
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 12 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-12
A diesel release narrows the product crack that has driven refining margins this quarter, while crude above $106 keeps feedstock costs elevated; the two effects partly cancel
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 12 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-08
Refiners gain on the product crack but lose on crude input cost; the two roughly offset unless the crack widens further
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 08 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-07
Historically wide diesel cracks help, but a crude cost above USD 100 and export-ban tail risk cap the upside
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 07 Oct 2026 - Negative2026-10-06
A deferral pushes demand toward untaxed product and signals political pressure on the refining complex, which still carries diesel export-ban tail risk
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 06 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-06
Product-level IEEPA exposure is small relative to Section 232/301 layers
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 06 Oct 2026 - Negative2026-10-05
A US diesel export ban would shut domestic refiners out of the highest-priced market in the world for their most valuable product. This is the single most damaging provision that was on the table, and it has not been permanently withdrawn
Policy Pulse - Global - 05 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-01inferred
Refining margins are the direct expression of diesel and gasoline tightness. A Chinese export freeze removes competing product supply from the Asian market these refiners serve ⚠️ inferred
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-09-30
Refining margins widen when the crude spread is this wide and diesel is the scarce product; export economics dominate domestic retail
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026 - Watch2026-09-16
Two-way. Refiners gain on product cracks but a USD 40-a-barrel year-on-year input increase compresses margins for those without secured feedstock
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 16 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-11
A record diesel price is the strongest single product margin in refining
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 11 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-11
US diesel above USD 6 a gallon is an all-time record and the strongest product crack in the complex
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 11 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-11
The single largest concentrated cluster in the President's portfolio, and the cluster that has performed through the Iran war
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 11 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-10
Record diesel cracks: diesel rose 24.1% inside the August PPI while crude rose far less
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 10 Sep 2026
Mentioned in Policy Pulse
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 08 Oct 2026
Brent rose 4.25 percent to USD 104.5 after Axios reported the Pentagon has been told to prepare for a possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran and Tropical Storm Isaias shut in a quarter of Gulf of Mexico output, positive for XOM, CVX and ONGC and negative for DAL, IOC and BPCL; hawkish September FOMC minutes kept the 10-year near 5.28 percent and the 30-year at 2002 levels, and India joined the US-led 15-country excess-capacity initiative while a Section 301 investigation into India's own industrial policies remains live.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 07 Oct 2026
The EIA raised its 2026 Brent forecast 8 percent to about USD 98 and lifted Q4 2026 to USD 105 with 4.5 million barrels per day still shut in, positive for XOM, CVX and ONGC and negative for DAL, UAL and Indian refiners IOC and BPCL. The 30-year Treasury yield held near its highest since 2002 with the September FOMC minutes due tonight and CME pricing an October hike near 20 percent, while French OAT yields kept rising and the euro sat near a 17-month low. Spot gold above USD 4,167 with the rupee at a five-month low of 97.03 is a translation positive for TCS and INFY and an input-cost negative for TITAN and MRF.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 06 Oct 2026
Trump signed an Emergency Tax Relief on Diesel Fuel order deferring the federal diesel excise tax from October 5 to December 31 for highway use - a per-mile cost cut for ODFL, CSX and DAL rather than a supply fix, with pump diesel still at USD 6.32 a gallon. CBP opened CAPE Phase 3 today, releasing roughly USD 20.6 billion of IEEPA tariff refunds to about 3,700 court plaintiffs - a cash event for WMT, TGT and AMZN. The copy-trade signal of the session was PTC Inc, up 30% in a day on disclosed presidential holdings of up to USD 6.15 million, while the July filing's USD 5-25 million sales each of AMZN and MSFT remain the largest non-DJT equity exits.
Policy Pulse - Global - 05 Oct 2026
The G7 began a coordinated 100-million-barrel IEA release with a frontloaded diesel leg after Trump's export-ban threat, splitting the crude market - Brent near $101.5 against WTI below $90 and Murban at $110.80 - which is positive for DAL, UAL and INDIGO and negative for VLO and PSX. The Lindsey Graham Act's secondary sanctions on Russian-crude buyers could be decided by October 18, a live risk for RELIANCE, IOC and BPCL, while the US-Ukraine fund's first $30 million minerals deal and China's rare-earth suspension extension to January 2027 lift MP and USAR.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 05 Oct 2026
Trump stood up the Super Intelligence Force on Sunday - a White House task force chaired by DNI Jay Clayton, with FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson and Pentagon CTO Emil Michael, and a charter written to prevent overregulation - a capex-permission signal for NVDA, AVGO and VRT. USTR Greer said negotiated tariff caps will be credited against the Section 301 excess-capacity probe, the July disclosure showed $5-25 million sales each of AMZN and MSFT alongside a June buy of small-cap defence name EFOR, and $90 Medicare payments to 20.8 million beneficiaries plus a renewed $5,000 cheque pledge read as a transfer positive for WMT, DG and UNH.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026
G20 trade ministers endorsed a Milwaukee Framework on steel overcapacity as Greer put the MFN principle itself up for review, while a Section 301 overcapacity probe covering 16 economies including India remains the unexercised risk to SUNPHARMA, WELSPUNLIV and BHARATFORG. Brent went back above $100 on China's fuel-export halt, lifting XOM and CVX against DAL and CCL, the US 10-year held near 5.28% after its biggest quarterly gain since 1994, and Micron's blowout quarter drove a 2.9-3.3% Nikkei rally.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026
The G20 Trade Ministerial opened in Milwaukee on steel excess capacity, MFN erosion and forced labour - the same ground as the Section 301 tariffs under challenge at the Court of International Trade - while core PCE at 3.0% cut October Fed hike odds from 71% to 35% and eased the front end. Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline and Yanbu loadings, Gulf exports recovered to 23.3 mbpd with Brent near $103, and India kept 0% Section 232 tariffs on specialty drugs, supporting SUNPHARMA and DRREDDY.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 16 Sep 2026
Brent held above USD 108 after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline went offline, the Fed is set to deliver its first hike since 2023 with a 25bp move 94% priced, and the BoJ meets September 17-18 expected to lift rates to a 31-year high of 1.25%. ONGC and OIL gain on the crude bid while IOC, BPCL and HINDPETRO absorb negative marketing margins.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 11 Sep 2026
Brent's surge to a USD 107.63 close (highest since May 19) and a hot 0.3% core CPI pushed the US 10-year to about 4.95% and the 30-year to 19-year highs - buy energy (XOM, CVX, ONGC), sell airlines (DAL, UAL, INDIGO). BRICS opens in New Delhi with CBDC payment links and critical minerals on the agenda, not a common currency.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 11 Sep 2026
August CPI matched at 3.4% y/y but core ran 0.3% m/m, holding September Fed hike odds near 60% and the 10-year near 4.95% - a headwind for NVDA, MU and INTC into ORCL's AI cloud beat. Trump's USD 5,000 dividend pledge costs an estimated USD 1.2-1.35 trillion (TLT risk, GLD bid) and Canada's Section 338 scope changes land September 15 (F, GM, STLA).
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 10 Sep 2026
ECB hikes 25bp to a 2.50% deposit rate, its second hike of 2026, blaming Middle East energy costs. Brent holds above USD 100-102 after the US sank five Iranian tankers and Iran struck 10 vessels, with Hormuz flows below 2 mbpd. Buy energy (XOM, CVX, OXY, VLO), sell airlines (DAL, UAL) and India's OMCs (IOC, BPCL, HINDPETRO); ONGC benefits.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 10 Sep 2026
Hot August PPI (headline +5.4% y/y, energy +4.2%, diesel +24.1%) and crude back above USD 100 pushed the 10-year to a 2023 high and September hike odds near 66%. Trump's top-9 energy holdings gained USD 1.5-4.4M during the Iran war (CVX, COP, XOM, OXY); Canada tariffs escalate to import bans on dairy, alcohol and motorcycles (F, GM, STLA, HOG) while aluminium bars and rods face 50% (AA).
Policy Pulse — Global — 05 Aug 2026
Hormuz deal as early as Wednesday, Brent <$80; US records (AMZN >$3T). India firms (Sensex +152) as RBI holds. HSBC sees $25B FII inflows. SELL energy (XOM, ONGC), BUY airlines (DAL, INDIGO).
Policy Pulse — Ministries & Regulators — 05 Aug 2026
RBI holds repo at 5.25% (neutral), raises FY27 GDP to 6.7%, cuts CPI to ~5%. SEBI CAS divergences; REIT/InvIT DR consultation. Banks neutral (ICICIBANK, KOTAKBANK, SBIN), BSE positive, TCS/HCL weak.
Policy Pulse — Ministries & Regulators — 03 Aug 2026
RBI MPC begins (Aug 5 decision), India PMI at near-5-yr low (53.5), SEBI open-market buybacks live (Aug 1). Watch banks, buyback cash-rich TCS/INFY/ITC.