Kaynes Technology India Ltd — Deep Dive Analysis
Analysis by deepseek-chat
Date: June 18, 2026
Symbol: KAYNES (NSE) | 543664 (BSE)
Sector: Electronic Technology / Electronic Production Equipment
Data Source: Screener.in (Consolidated, Logged-in), TradingView, NSE, BSE, Company Presentations
Quick Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | ₹3,387 |
| Market Cap | ₹22,706 Cr |
| Stock P/E | 62.1 |
| Industry PE | 31.7 |
| PEG Ratio | 1.10 |
| ROCE | 13.2% |
| ROE | 9.64% |
| Book Value | ₹708 |
| Debt to Equity | 0.19 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Sales (TTM) | ₹3,626 Cr |
| PAT Prev Ann | ₹286 Cr |
| Profit Var 3Yrs | 56.7% |
| Graham Number | ₹930 |
| Earnings Yield | 2.85% |
| Piotroski Score | 4.00 |
| Debtor Days | 154 |
| 52W High / Low | ₹7,705 / ₹2,995 |
Data as of Screener.in consolidated view (logged in)
1. Business Overview
Kaynes Technology is a leading end-to-end IoT-enabled integrated electronics manufacturing services (IEMS) company, incorporated in 2008 (roots from 1988). It provides:
- Conceptual design and process engineering
- Integrated manufacturing (EMS)
- Life-cycle support across the entire electronics value chain
Key Verticals: Automotive, Industrial (incl EV), Aerospace & Defence, Outer Space, Medical, Railways, IoT/IT
New Growth Engines:
- OSAT (Kaynes Semicon) — ₹3,300 Cr facility at Sanand, Gujarat. Pilot line operational, Unit 2 ready by July 2026
- HDI PCB (Kaynes Circuits) — Chennai, PCB Unit 1 operational by July 2026
- Smart Metering — Product + installation + O&M model
- AI-Powered Railway Safety (Kavach)
Recent Milestone: India's first commercial Multi-chip module launched from Sanand OSAT facility, shipping Intelligent Power Modules (IPMs) to Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (AOS)
2. Financial Performance (Consolidated)
P&L at a Glance (₹ Cr)
| Year | Sales | OPM% | Net Profit | PAT% | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | 706 | 13% | 42 | 5.9% | 9.03 |
| FY23 | 1,126 | 15% | 95 | 8.4% | 16.37 |
| FY24 | 1,805 | 14% | 183 | 10.1% | 28.68 |
| FY25 | 2,722 | 15% | 293 | 10.8% | 45.84 |
| FY26 | 3,626 | 16% | 364 | 10.0% | 54.28 |
5Y Sales CAGR: 108%
5Y Profit CAGR: 108%
3Y Profit CAGR: 56.7% (as per Screener)
Quarterly Trend (Latest 5 Quarters)
| Quarter | Sales (₹ Cr) | OPM% | PAT (₹ Cr) | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY25 | 984 | 17% | 116 | 18.15 |
| Q1 FY26 | 673 | 17% | 75 | 11.14 |
| Q2 FY26 | 906 | 16% | 121 | 18.11 |
| Q3 FY26 | 804 | 15% | 77 | 11.43 |
| Q4 FY26 | 1,243 | 16% | 91 | 13.61 |
Q4 FY26 Performance vs Street Estimates
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹1,243 Cr | ₹1,508 Cr | -17.6% |
| EBITDA | ₹194 Cr | ₹243 Cr | -20.2% |
| EBITDA Margin | 15.6% | 16.1% | -50 bps |
| Net Profit | ₹91 Cr | ₹172 Cr | -47.1% |
Key reason: Geopolitical disruption (West Asia conflict) led to last-minute customer deferments, supply chain delays and product timing shifts.
Cash Flow Concerns
| Metric | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFO | ₹70 Cr | ₹-82 Cr | ₹-600 Cr |
| FCF | ₹-312 Cr | ₹-1,031 Cr | ₹-1,841 Cr |
| CFO/OP | 46% | -4% | -80% |
| Working Capital Days | 66 | -7 | 133 |
Root Cause: Smart metering subsidiary (Iskraemeco) — 25% of revenue but 67% receivables. Government installation delays. Core EMS business actually improved WC days from 64→54 days.
CFO's Commitment: 70-80% of negative cash flow to reverse within 3 quarters, positive by year-end.
3. Balance Sheet Health
| Item | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | ₹64 Cr | ₹67 Cr |
| Reserves | ₹2,776 Cr | ₹4,681 Cr |
| Borrowings | ₹903 Cr | ₹913 Cr |
| Networth | ₹28,373 Cr | ₹47,271 Cr |
| Fixed Assets | ₹845 Cr | ₹1,732 Cr |
| CWIP | ₹391 Cr | ₹372 Cr |
| Investments | ₹132 Cr | ₹257 Cr |
| Debt to Equity | 0.32 | 0.19 |
Key Observation: Borrowings stable at ₹913 Cr despite huge capex (₹887 Cr addition to FA + CWIP). Net Debt/Equity at 0.04 — very healthy.
4. Shareholding Pattern
| Holder | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Promoters | 57.83% | 57.75% | 53.46% | ↓ -4.3% YoY |
| FIIs | 14.19% | 11.17% | 7.28% | ↓ -6.9% YoY |
| DIIs | 18.36% | 16.98% | 15.13% | ↓ -1.9% YoY |
| Public | 9.61% | 14.10% | 24.12% | ↑ +10% YoY |
| Shareholders | 97,423 | 2,30,533 | 3,78,546 | ↑ +64% YoY |
⚠️ Red Flags:
- Promoters diluted their stake by 4.3% in FY26
- FIIs exiting significantly (down 49% from Mar-24 peak of 14.19%)
- Retail/public increasing sharply — often a contrarian signal
- DIIs also reducing their position
5. Technical Analysis (TradingView — 1D Timeframe)
As of June 18, 2026 — Price: ₹3,382 (+4.12%)
Summary Signals
| Gauge | Signal |
|---|---|
| Oscillators | Neutral (Sell 0, Neutral 8, Buy 3) |
| Moving Averages | Buy (Sell 6, Neutral 1, Buy 8) |
| Summary | Neutral (Sell 6, Neutral 9, Buy 11) |
Oscillators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 53.06 | Neutral |
| Stochastic %K (14,3,3) | 77.34 | Neutral |
| CCI (20) | 134.60 | Neutral |
| ADX (14) | 25.00 | Buy |
| Awesome Oscillator | -283.07 | Neutral |
| Momentum (10) | 192.90 | Buy |
| MACD Level (12,26) | -114.74 | Buy |
| Stoch RSI Fast | 100.00 | Neutral |
| Williams %R (14) | -4.10 | Neutral |
| Bull Bear Power | 239.31 | Neutral |
| Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | 50.07 | Neutral |
Moving Averages
| MA | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| EMA(10) | 3,189 | Buy |
| SMA(10) | 3,129 | Buy |
| EMA(20) | 3,249 | Buy |
| SMA(20) | 3,176 | Buy |
| EMA(30) | 3,343 | Buy |
| SMA(30) | 3,361 | Buy |
| EMA(50) | 3,490 | Sell |
| SMA(50) | 3,663 | Sell |
| EMA(100) | 3,804 | Sell |
| SMA(100) | 3,681 | Sell |
| EMA(200) | 4,312 | Sell |
| SMA(200) | 4,745 | Sell |
Key Observation
Price is trading ABOVE short-term MAs (10,20,30) but BELOW all medium-to-long-term MAs (50,100,200). This indicates a short-term bounce within a longer-term downtrend. The stock is down -40% in 1 year.
Pivot Levels (Classic)
| Level | Value |
|---|---|
| R3 | ₹6,643 |
| R2 | ₹5,099 |
| R1 | ₹4,116 |
| Pivot | ₹3,556 |
| S1 | ₹2,573 |
| S2 | ₹2,012 |
| S3 | ₹469 |
Performance
| Period | Return |
|---|---|
| 1W | +10.89% |
| 1M | +8.10% |
| 3M | -6.46% |
| 6M | -17.07% |
| YTD | -15.91% |
| 1Y | -40.17% |
Analyst Consensus: Neutral with 1-year price target of ₹3,410 (0.82% upside from current)
6. Revenue Mix & Order Book
Vertical Split (FY26)
| Sector | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial (incl EV) | 55% | 55% |
| Automotive | 25% | 25% |
| Aerospace, Space & Strategic | 6% | 6% |
| Medical | 2% | 2% |
| Railways | 2% | 2% |
| IoT / IT, Consumer & Others | 10% | 10% |
Segment Split (FY26 → Major Shift)
| Segment | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|
| OEM Turnkey — Box Build | 39% | 28% |
| OEM Turnkey — PCBA | 43% | 55% |
| ODM & Product Engineering | 18% | 27% |
⚠️ Key shift: PCBA share increased from 43%→55%, ODM from 18%→27%. Box Build declined from 39%→28%. This shift toward higher-value ODM is positive for margin trajectory.
Order Book
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Order Book (FY26) | ₹8,367 Cr |
| Order Book (FY25) | ₹6,597 Cr |
| YoY Growth | +27% |
| OSAT Revenue Visibility | ₹2,500 Cr+ over next 5 years |
| Customer Base | 500+ customers in 30+ countries |
7. Management Commentary — Concall Key Takeaways (May 14, 2026)
Missed Guidance
- FY26 initial guidance was ₹4,500 Cr revenue. Reduced to ₹4,000 Cr mid-year. Actually delivered ₹3,626 Cr.
- CEO acknowledged: "Near-term top-line performance did not fully meet market expectations, primarily due to geopolitical disruption, especially the West Asia conflict."
- A major EV OEM customer (2-wheeler) dropped production by 90% — Kaynes was the single supplier
- Two government orders were delayed despite product testing being approved
Guidance Philosophy Change
- Management has stopped providing numerical guidance altogether
- Now committing to "double the market growth rate" (EMS market growing at 16-18%)
- This is a significant credibility downgrade
OSAT Update
- Unit 1 fully operational at Sanand
- Unit 2 ready for commercialization by Q2FY27
- PM Modi personally inaugurated the facility
- Revenue visibility of ₹2,500 Cr+ over next 5 years
- Multi-year, multi-million-dollar partnership with Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (AOS)
- First commercial multi-chip module (IPMs) already shipping to AOS
- Japan push: Subsidiary Kaynes Semicon targeting Japanese chipmakers, with support from Aoi Electronics (production lines) and Mitsui (materials procurement)
Working Capital Promise
- Core EMS business saw WC days improve from 64→54 days
- EMS CFO was ₹250 Cr positive (vs ₹65 Cr last year) — claim of honoring the guidance
- But metering subsidiary (₹971 Cr revenue) has ₹1,365 Cr in receivables
- Commitment: Metering WC issue to reverse within 3 quarters
New Product Development (NPD)
- Target: 30% of revenue from NPD-led solutions in coming years
- New product launch cycle reduced from 12-18 months to 9 months
- EV segment grew 28% despite the major customer loss
- Kavach (railway safety) received initial approval, trial orders in execution
Leadership Changes
- Independent Director Heinz Franz Moitzi resigned (May 29, 2026) citing personal/professional commitments
- New board additions: Dr. M. Annadurai (ISRO veteran), Rajesh Mittal (automotive), S.G. Murali (ex-TVS Group CFO)
- CFO Jairam Sampath missed the call due to health concerns
8. Recent News (June 2025 — June 2026)
🟢 Positive
- Japan Semiconductor Push (June 17, 2026) — Kaynes Semicon targeting Japanese chipmakers with support from Aoi Electronics & Mitsui. Sales reps deployed in Japan, product samples expected in FY26.
- OSAT Facility Inaugurated by PM Modi — India's first commercial multi-chip module launched from Sanand
- AOS Partnership — Multi-year, multi-million-dollar deal for Power Mosfets, IGBTs, IPMs
- Mysore Facility Crosses ₹1,000 Cr Revenue — Major milestone for the flagship unit
🔴 Negative
- Q4 Earnings Miss (May 13, 2026) — Profit fell 22% YoY to ₹91 Cr. Revenue miss of ₹265 Cr vs estimates.
- Revenue Guidance Cut Twice — ₹4,500 Cr → ₹4,000 Cr → ₹3,626 Cr
- Cash Flow Woes — CFO at -₹600 Cr. Metering receivables at ₹1,365 Cr against ₹971 Cr revenue
- Promoter Stake Drops to 53.46% — Down 10.1% over 3 years as per Screener
- Massive FII Exit — FII holding dropped from 14.19% (Mar-24) to 7.28% (Mar-26)
🟡 Neutral/Development
- PCB Unit 1 — Operational by July 2026 at Chennai
- Kavach Approval — Trial orders received, initial field survey completed
- Smart Metering — Full year of operations completed; installation delays being addressed
9. Key Risks
| Risk | Severity | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Guidance Credibility | 🔴 High | Two consecutive guidance cuts in FY26. Management stopped giving numerical guidance. |
| Cash Flow Burn | 🔴 High | -₹600 Cr CFO. Metering receivables 1.4x revenue. Company burning heavily. |
| Promoter Dilution | 🟡 Medium | Stake down from 63.57% (Mar-23) → 53.46% (Mar-26). Selling pressure risk. |
| FII Exit | 🟡 Medium | FIIs nearly halved their stake in 2 years |
| Q4 Margin Compression | 🟡 Medium | PAT margin dropped from 11.8%→7.3% QoQ |
| Geopolitical Exposure | 🟡 Medium | West Asia conflict impacting order timing |
| WC Days Ballooning | 🟡 Medium | From 63.8 days to 133 days in 3 years |
| Dilution via QIP | 🟢 Low | Share count increased (67 Cr vs 64 Cr equity) but funded growth capex |
| Dividend | 🟢 Low | Zero dividend — no income for yield-seeking investors |
| Competition | 🟢 Low | EMS market growing but competitive pressure from Syrma, Dixon, etc. |
10. Bull vs Bear Case
🐂 Bull Case
- PEG of 1.10 — The stock is reasonably valued for its growth. PEG under 1.5 is typically considered attractive.
- OSAT + PCB = Structural Moats — Backward integration into semiconductor & PCB is a unique advantage. No other Indian EMS player has this combination.
- ₹8,367 Cr Order Book — 2.3x FY26 revenue. Strong visibility.
- India's ESDM Story — Government PLI schemes, Make in India, China+1 tailwind. EMS market growing 16-18% annually.
- Japan Expansion — New market entry for OSAT services. Aoi Electronics & Mitsui partnerships add credibility.
- NPD Target (30% Revenue) — If achieved, margins will structurally improve as ODM revenue has higher margins than pure EMS.
- Core EMS Business Healthy — WC days improved from 64→54. CFO positive at ₹250 Cr in standalone EMS.
🐻 Bear Case
- Guidance Integrity Damaged — Management missed ₹4,500 Cr → ₹4,000 Cr → ₹3,626 Cr. "Double market growth" is vague and unverifiable.
- Cash Flow Negative — -₹600 Cr CFO is a massive red flag for a company that should be generating cash from operations.
- Promoters Selling — Stake dropping every year. With 53.46%, another 3.46% dilution means they go below 50%.
- FIIs Exiting — Smart money is leaving. FIIs went from 14.19% to 7.28% — that's a 49% reduction.
- Revenue Concentration Shift — Box Build (higher value, sticky) declined from 39%→28%. PCBA (lower value, more commoditized) increased.
- Stock Down 40% in 1 Year — The price action is telling a story.
- Management Shake-up — Independent director quit. CFO missed the earnings call. Restructuring ongoing.
11. Valuation
| Metric | Kaynes | Industry / Peers |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 62.1 | Industry PE: 31.7 |
| PEG | 1.10 | Below 1.5 = reasonable |
| P/B | 4.76 | — |
| EV/EBITDA | ~5.0x (estimated) | — |
| Earnings Yield | 2.85% | 10-year bond: ~7% |
| Graham Number | ₹930 | Current price: 3.6x Graham |
At 62.1x P/E: Kaynes is expensive in absolute terms but the 56.7% 3Y profit CAGR supports a PEG of 1.10 which is reasonable.
However: The P/E is 2x the industry PE of 31.7. The premium needs to be justified by sustained superior growth.
12. Final Verdict
Kaynes Technology is at a critical inflection point. It has:
✅ Structural tailwinds: India's ESDM boom, PLI schemes, China+1
✅ Unique assets: OSAT + PCB + EMS = integrated electronics player
✅ Strong order book: ₹8,367 Cr with 5-year visibility in OSAT
✅ Reasonable PEG of 1.10
❌ Damaged guidance credibility: Missed ₹4,500 Cr target by ₹874 Cr
❌ Cash flow bleeding: -₹600 Cr CFO with unclear timeline to fix
❌ Promoter & FII exit: Smart money leaving
❌ Stock down 40% in 1 year: Price reflects execution concerns
The management has acknowledged their mistakes and is taking corrective action (Core EMS WC improvement, OSAT ramp-up, NPD focus, Japan expansion). If they deliver on the cash flow turnaround in the next 2-3 quarters, this could be a buying opportunity near the lows. If not, the stock could test lower levels (S1 at ₹2,573).
For now, I'd classify Kaynes as a High Risk / High Reward play. Not for conservative investors. Wait for at least 1-2 quarters of cash flow improvement and management credibility restoration before adding significantly.
Report prepared by PulkitAIAssistant. Data sourced from Screener.in, TradingView, BSE filings, and company presentations.