Kaynes Technology — Deep Dive Analysis

Ticker: KAYNES (NSE: KAYNES, BSE: 543664)
Sector: Electronic Production Equipment
Price: ₹3,122 (30 Jun 2026, -0.91%)
Analysis Date: 30 June 2026
Data Source: Screener.in consolidated view, TradingView, NSE Official
Model: DeepSeek Chat

1. Quick Snapshot

Metric	Value
Market Cap	₹20,918 Cr
Current Price	₹3,122
52W High / Low	₹7,705 / ₹2,995
Stock P/E	57.2
Industry P/E	32.4
PEG Ratio	1.01
Book Value	₹708
ROCE	13.2%
ROE	9.64%
EPS (TTM)	₹54.28
Sales (FY26)	₹3,626 Cr
PAT (FY26)	₹364 Cr
Debt/Equity	0.19
Debtor Days	154
Graham Number	₹930
Piotroski Score	4/9
Earnings Yield	2.97%
Return over 1Y	-48.8%
Dividend Yield	0.00%

2. Business Overview

Kaynes Technology India Ltd is a leading end-to-end IoT-enabled integrated electronics manufacturing services (IEMS) company headquartered in Mysore. Founded in 2008, it provides conceptual design, process engineering, integrated manufacturing, and life-cycle support to major OEMs across multiple verticals.

Core Verticals (Revenue Mix FY26)

Vertical	Revenue Share
Automotive	55%
Industrial	25%
IoT / IT	10%
Aerospace & Defence	6%
Railways	2%
Medical	2%

Strategic Growth Pillars

Initiative	Status	Investment	Revenue Target
OSAT (Sanand, Gujarat)	Unit 1 pilot active, Unit 2 ready by Jul'26	₹3,307 Cr (50% central, 20% state, 30% company)	₹570 Cr by FY27, ₹4,000 Cr by FY30
HDI PCB	Unit 1 operational by Jul'26	Part of ₹14 Cr total PCB capex	—
Chamarajanagar Expansion	Phase-I ready, 350K sq ft	₹300 Cr est.	—
Hyderabad Facility	70K SFT, SMT + injection molding	—	—

Competitive Moat

22 advanced manufacturing & design facilities across India
13 global accreditations — most for any ESDM company in India
200+ member R&D & engineering team
500+ customers in 30+ countries including marquee MNCs
India's first commercial Multi-chip module from Sanand OSAT
Backward integration: EMS → OSAT → HDI PCB — creating full vertical integration in electronics supply chain
Partnerships: AOI Electronics (Japan tech partner), Mitsui & Co (supply chain), Alpha Omega (first paying OSAT customer)

"We are fundamentally redefining our position in the ESDM ecosystem. The strategic integration of our core EMS expertise with advanced OSAT and PCB manufacturing capabilities creates an unparalleled competitive moat." — Management, May 2026 PPT

3. Financial Performance

Annual P&L (Consolidated — ₹ Cr)

	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26
Sales	364	368	420	706	1,126	1,805	2,722	3,626
Expenses	328	325	378	611	956	1,548	2,305	3,052
Operating Profit	36	43	42	95	170	257	416	574
OPM %	10%	12%	10%	13%	15%	14%	15%	16%
Other Income	2	1	4	4	11	56	106	154
Interest	20	25	25	27	36	56	106	117
Depreciation	5	8	10	13	19	25	45	107
PBT	14	11	11	59	126	232	372	504
Tax %	28%	17%	10%	29%	24%	21%	21%	28%
PAT	10	9	10	42	95	183	293	364
EPS (₹)	14.26	13.94	13.79	9.03	16.37	28.68	45.84	54.28

Key Takeaways:

Revenue CAGR (FY21→FY26): 54% — exceptional growth trajectory
PAT CAGR (FY21→FY26): 105% — profit has grown faster than revenue
OPM improved from 10% (FY19) to 16% (FY26) — steady margin expansion
EPS nearly doubled from ₹28.68 to ₹54.28 in two years
Other Income ballooned to ₹154 Cr (42% of PAT) — inflated by IPO/QIP proceeds interest income
No dividends ever paid — all profits reinvested into growth

Quarterly Trend (Last 5 Quarters — ₹ Cr)

	Q4FY25	Q1FY26	Q2FY26	Q3FY26	Q4FY26
Sales	984	673	906	804	1,243
OP	168	113	148	119	194
OPM %	17%	17%	16%	15%	16%
PAT	116	75	121	77	91
EPS	18.15	11.14	18.11	11.43	13.61

Q4FY26 Miss:

Revenue ₹1,243 Cr (+26% YoY) but below consensus expectations
PAT fell 21% YoY (₹91 Cr vs ₹116 Cr)
PAT margin compressed to 7.3% vs 11.8% in Q4FY25
EBITDA margin down 150 bps to 15.6%
Finance cost surged 39% YoY to ₹41 Cr

4. Balance Sheet Health (Consolidated, ₹ Cr)

Item	Mar'22	Mar'23	Mar'24	Mar'25	Mar'26
Equity Capital	46	58	64	64	67
Reserves	156	901	2,423	2,776	4,681
Borrowings	189	155	323	903	913
Total Liabilities	622	1,419	3,265	4,641	6,894
Fixed Assets	113	132	319	845	1,732
CWIP	8	29	105	391	372
Investments	2	3	132	132	257

Key Observations:

Borrowings tripled from ₹323 Cr (Mar'24) to ₹913 Cr (Mar'26) — funding massive capex
Fixed Assets exploded from ₹319 Cr to ₹1,732 Cr — OSAT, PCB, facility expansion
Reserves doubled from ₹2,776 Cr to ₹4,681 Cr — QIP proceeds + retained earnings
Debt/Equity at 0.19 — comfortable despite borrowings increase
CWIP at ₹372 Cr — significant capex still in pipeline

5. Cash Flow Analysis — 🔴 CRITICAL RED FLAG

	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26
CFO	-8	45	28	21	-42	70	-82	-600
Capex	41	10	24	45	494	1,505	355	917
FCF	-18	14	3	-21	-100	-312	-1,031	-1,841
CFO/OP %	-3%	109%	73%	24%	5%	46%	-4%	-80%

🚩 Key Concerns:

CFO -₹600 Cr on PAT ₹364 Cr — worst cash conversion in company history
FCF -₹1,841 Cr — massive funding requirement
CFO/OP at -80% — only 3 of 8 years have been positive
Working capital days ballooned to 125 days from 87 (guidance was 85-100)
Management admitted in concall: cash flow picture was "concerning" and attributed it to inventory build for OSAT/PCB and delayed customer payments

6. Shareholding Pattern

Period	Promoters	FIIs	DIIs	Public	Shareholders
Mar'23	63.57%	8.16%	12.96%	15.31%	45,643
Mar'24	57.83%	14.19%	18.36%	9.61%	97,423
Mar'25	57.75%	11.17%	16.98%	14.10%	2,30,533
Mar'26	53.46%	7.28%	15.13%	24.12%	3,78,546

Key Trends

🔴 Promoters — Diluting

Declined from 63.57% (Mar'23) to 53.46% (Mar'26) — -10.1% in 3 years
Screener flags as CON: "Promoter holding decreased over last 3 years: -10.1%"

🔴 FIIs — Exiting

Peaked at 14.19% in Mar'24, now down to 7.28% — nearly halved
FIIs reducing exposure post guidance miss and stock collapse

🟡 DIIs — Steady but not growing

Stable at ~15-18% range but not increasing

🔴 Public — Retail flooding in

Shareholders: 45,643 → 3,78,546 (+728% in 3 years)
Public holding surged from 15.31% → 24.12%
Warning sign: Retail buying as FIIs exit and stock falls 49%

7. Order Book & Revenue Visibility

Metric	Value
Order Book (Mar'26)	₹8,366 Cr
Revenue (FY26)	₹3,626 Cr
Book-to-Bill	2.3x
Revenue CAGR (FY21-26)	54%

Order Book Composition

Vertical	% of Orders
Automotive	55%
Industrial	25%
IoT/IT	10%
Aerospace & Defence	6%
Railways	2%
Medical	2%

Key Customers: Alpha Omega (OSAT), LightSpeed Photonics, AOI Electronics (Japan), Mitsui & Co

8. Management Commentary (May 2026 PPT & Concall)

Key Quotes

"The strategic integration of our core EMS expertise with advanced OSAT and PCB manufacturing capabilities creates an unparalleled competitive moat."

"We have successfully launched India's first commercial Multi-chip module from our Sanand OSAT Facility, shipping IPMs to AOS, and are ramping up mass production by July 2026 nationwide."

On FY26 Guidance Miss (Concall Q&A)

Q: "At the start of the year, you guided for revenues of 4,500 crores, which was later revised to 4,000 crores, but the year ended with 3,600 crores. How should investors view this guidance discrepancy?"

A: "The initial guidance was based on an aggressive growth forecast and expected fast-paced government projects. However, unforeseen delays, particularly a significant drop in revenue from a major electric vehicle OEM, impacted our numbers. We acknowledge the gap between guidance and actual results and are working on strengthening execution capabilities."

On Working Capital

"Due to the nature of the industry in which we operate, our working capital cycle tends to be high. This is primarily driven by the need to maintain adequate inventory levels for mission-critical systems."

OSAT Outlook

Milestone	Timeline
OSAT Pilot Line	Operational
Unit 2 Ready	July 2026
Commercial OSAT Revenue	H2 2026
Revenue Target (OSAT)	₹570 Cr by FY27
Revenue Target (OSAT)	₹4,000 Cr by FY30

9. Technical Analysis (As of 30 Jun 2026)

TradingView Summary: SELL — Oscillators (Sell 2, Neutral 8, Buy 1) | MAs (Sell 14, Neutral 1, Buy 0)

Oscillators

Indicator	Value	Signal
RSI (14)	42.40	Neutral
Stochastic %K (14,3,3)	42.26	Neutral
CCI (20)	-31.64	Neutral
ADX (14)	16.25	Neutral
Awesome Oscillator	-29.33	Neutral
Momentum (10)	39.80	Sell
MACD Level (12,26)	-68.59	Buy
Stoch RSI Fast (3,3,14,14)	53.55	Neutral
Williams %R (14)	-72.75	Neutral
Bull Bear Power	-91.73	Neutral
Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28)	27.68	Sell

Moving Averages

14 of 15 MAs in SELL. Price at ₹3,122 is trading below all key EMAs — classic downtrend structure.

Performance

Period	Return
1 Week	-0.70%
1 Month	-7.8%
3 Months	-28%
6 Months	-56%
YTD	-56%
1 Year	-48.8%

Key Levels

52W High: ₹7,705 (ATH — down 59% from peak)
52W Low: ₹2,995 (within 4% of current price)
Support: ₹2,995 (52W low)
Resistance: ₹3,400-3,500 (recent breakdown zone)

10. NSE Delivery Data Analysis (Last 15 Trading Days)

Date	Close	Volume	Delivery %	Signal
08-Jun	3,028	7.49L	35.5%	🟡
09-Jun	3,073	4.01L	23.5%	🔴
10-Jun	3,073	4.54L	29.7%	🔴
11-Jun	3,027	5.34L	22.4%	🔴
12-Jun	3,077	6.41L	31.4%	🟡
15-Jun	3,082	8.40L	36.5%	🟡
16-Jun	3,178	13.22L	23.0%	🔴
17-Jun	3,248	11.55L	28.3%	🔴
18-Jun	3,386	18.71L	31.4%	🟡
19-Jun	3,253	10.12L	39.9%	🟡
22-Jun	3,284	5.04L	26.7%	🔴
23-Jun	3,217	5.39L	37.5%	🟡
24-Jun	3,203	12.69L	32.8%	🟡
25-Jun	3,265	26.32L	20.5%	🔴🔴
29-Jun	3,151	11.15L	27.0%	🔴

Key Findings

Metric	Value
Avg Delivery %	29.7%
Days Above 45%	0 out of 15
Days Above 30%	7 out of 15
Avg Daily Volume	10.0L shares (~₹320 Cr)

🚩 Distribution Red Flag: The highest volume day (25-Jun, 26.32L shares) had the LOWEST delivery % of 20.5% . This is a classic distribution pattern — heavy volume but no genuine buying conviction. Price dropped from ₹3,386 to ₹3,151 subsequently.

11. Block Deals & Insider Activity

No bulk or block deals found in current calendar year. The institutional buying seen in shareholding data (DIIs at 15.13%, FIIs at 7.28%) has been through gradual market purchases, not visible block transactions.

Notable downgrades post Q4:

Broker	Action	Old PT	New PT
Nuvama	Buy → Hold	₹5,500	₹3,550
JM Financial	— → Reduce	—	—
JPMorgan	— → Downgrade	—	—
Prabhudas Lilladher	Accumulate	—	₹3,506

12. Forward PE & Valuation

EPS History

Year	EPS (₹)	Growth
FY21	13.79	—
FY22	9.03	-35%
FY23	16.37	+81%
FY24	28.68	+75%
FY25	45.84	+60%
FY26	54.28	+18%

Valuation at CMP (₹3,122)

Metric	Value
Trailing P/E (FY26)	57.2x
Industry P/E	32.4x
Premium to Industry	1.8x
PEG (3Y Profit CAGR)	1.01
Price/Book	4.41x
EV/EBITDA (FY26)	~37x
EV/Sales (FY26)	~6x

Analyst Targets

Source	Target	Rating
Nuvama	₹3,550	Hold
Prabhudas Lilladher	₹3,506	Accumulate
Motilal Oswal (Feb, pre-downgrade)	₹5,000	Buy
Consensus (pre-downgrade)	~₹5,787	Buy
Upside from CMP	+12-14% (post-downgrade)

Management Guidance Discrepancy

Metric	Initial FY26 Guidance	Revised Guidance	Actual	Miss
Revenue	₹4,500 Cr	₹4,100 Cr	₹3,626 Cr	-11.6% vs revised
CFO	Marginally positive	—	-₹600 Cr	Severe miss
WC Days	—	85-100	125 days	+25% over guidance

Scenario Table (FY27E)

Scenario	Assumptions	FY27E Revenue	FY27E PAT	FY27E EPS	Forward P/E
Conservative	15% growth, 15% OPM	₹4,170 Cr	₹310 Cr	₹46	68x
Moderate	20% growth, 16% OPM	₹4,351 Cr	₹370 Cr	₹55	57x
Analyst Consensus (pre-Q4)	25% growth	₹4,531 Cr	₹425 Cr	₹63	49x

Key Concern: Even at moderate growth assumptions, forward P/E of 57x at FY27E is still expensive. The stock needs 30%+ growth to justify current multiples.

13. Core P/E (Derived)

Line Item	Value
Other Income (FY26 P&L)	₹154 Cr
PAT (Reported)	₹364 Cr
OI as % of PAT	42.3%
Core PAT (PAT - OI)	₹210 Cr
Reported P/E	57.2x
Core P/E (Derived)	~99.6x

Core P/E is not a standard Screener field. Calculated: MCap / (PAT - Other Income). OI data from Screener consolidated P&L (Mar'26). OI inflated by IPO/QIP proceeds interest — not sustainable.

At 99.6x Core P/E, the stock is significantly more expensive than the reported 57.2x suggests. The reported PAT is inflated by ₹154 Cr of Other Income (42.3% of PAT) which is mostly interest on IPO/QIP proceeds that will deplete as funds are deployed into capex.

14. Key Risks

Risk	Severity	Detail
Guidance credibility destroyed	🔴 CRITICAL	Missed FY26 guidance twice (₹4,500→₹4,100→₹3,626). Management credibility damaged.
Negative CFO / Cash Burn	🔴 CRITICAL	CFO -₹600 Cr. FCF -₹1,841 Cr. 3 of last 4 years negative CFO. WC days at 125 vs guidance 85-100.
Core P/E 99.6x	🔴 HIGH	Reported P/E of 57.2x masks 42% OI dependency. Core earnings valued at 100x.
Stock -49% from ATH	🔴 HIGH	Downtrend firmly in place. All MAs in SELL. 52W low ₹2,995 within 4%.
Broker downgrades	🔴 HIGH	Nuvama Buy→Hold, PT -35%. JM Fin Reduce. JPMorgan downgrade.
Promoter dilution	🟡 MEDIUM	Down -10.1% in 3 years (63.57%→53.46%).
FIIs exiting	🟡 MEDIUM	FII holding halved from 14.19% (Mar'24) to 7.28% (Mar'26).
OSAT execution risk	🟡 MEDIUM	₹992 Cr company contribution + ₹1,654 Cr govt subsidy dependent on milestones.
High OI dependency	🟡 MEDIUM	42% of PAT from Other Income. As QIP funds deploy into capex, OI will shrink.
Retail flooding in	🟡 MEDIUM	Shareholders +728% in 3 years. Late-cycle retail enthusiasm as smart money exits.
No dividends	🟢 LOW	Zero dividend history — all profits reinvested (typical for growth company).

15. Screener.in Pros & Cons

Pros

✅ Company is expected to give good quarter
✅ Company has delivered good profit growth of 108% CAGR over last 5 years

Cons

❌ Stock is trading at 4.41 times its book value
❌ Though reporting repeated profits, not paying out dividend
❌ Company has a low return on equity of 10.2% over last 3 years
❌ Company has high debtors of 154 days
❌ Promoter holding decreased over last 3 years: -10.1%
❌ Working capital days increased from 63.8 days to 133 days

16. Full 25-Point Swing Trading Checklist

#	Item	Evidence	Verdict
1	Price Position	Within 4% of 52W low (₹2,995). Below 52W high (₹7,705 = -59%). Not within 25% of high	❌ FAIL
2	Trend	All 14 MAs in SELL. Price below ALL EMAs. Lower highs, lower lows since ATH.	❌ FAIL
3	Volume Characteristics	Highest volume day (25-Jun) had lowest delivery (20.5%) = distribution	⚠️ CAUTION
4	Clean Price Action	49% decline from ATH. Erratic moves (₹3,386→₹3,151 in 4 days).	⚠️ CAUTION
5	EMA Alignment	Price below all EMAs. EMAs sloping down. Bearish cross in place.	❌ FAIL
6	Chart Pattern & Base	Massive topping pattern from ₹7,705. No base formation visible.	❌ FAIL
7	Base Quality	No base — free-falling from ATH. Not actionable.	❌ FAIL
8	ADR	~3% daily range. Reasonable for swing.	✅ PASS
9	Primary Uptrend	Nifty recovering but stock in severe downtrend. Divergence.	❌ FAIL
10	Follow One Model	Would not fit any swing model in current structure.	⚠️ CAUTION
11	Sector Strength	EMS sector strong. India's electronics manufacturing push intact.	✅ PASS
12	Tailwind	Production Linked Incentive (PLI), China+1, semiconductor push.	✅ PASS
13	IPO Consideration	Listed Nov 2022 at ~₹740. ATH ₹7,705 = 10x from IPO. Now -59% from peak.	⚠️ CAUTION
14	Price Action Strength	-49% 1Y. Worst performer among EMS peers.	❌ FAIL
15	Sector & Govt Boost	PLI scheme, semiconductor policy, $10B India chip push.	✅ PASS
16	Fundamental Quality	Revenue/PAT growth excellent. But CFO -₹600 Cr destroys quality.	⚠️ CAUTION
17	Quarterly Earnings Growth	Q4 PAT -21% YoY. Below 30-50% threshold.	❌ FAIL
18	Delivery Percentage	Avg 29.7%. 0/15 above 45%. Distribution on high volume day.	⚠️ CAUTION
19	News & Institutional Activity	Negative news dominates (downgrades, guidance miss).	❌ FAIL
20	Risk Management	No clear entry. Support at ₹2,995 (52W low). SL below ₹2,900 = -7%. Target unclear.	⚠️ CAUTION
21	Market Environment	EMS sector under pressure post guidance miss. Broader market mixed.	⚠️ CAUTION
22	Liquidity	~~10L shares/day (~~₹320 Cr). Adequate.	✅ PASS
23	Relative Strength	-49% vs Nifty +6%. Severely underperforming.	❌ FAIL
24	Breakout Confirmation	No breakout — breaking down instead.	❌ FAIL
25	Trading Psychology	After 49% decline, many are trying to catch falling knife. High risk.	⚠️ CAUTION

Total Score: 10 / 25 — ❌ WEAK (Pass on this trade)

Score Range	Verdict
22-25	✅ Strong
17-21	⚠️ Moderate
< 17	❌ Weak — pass

17. Bull vs Bear Case

🟢 Bull Case

Argument	Evidence
India's EMS super-cycle	ESDM market growing 30%+ CAGR. China+1 tailwind. PLI scheme benefits.
Full vertical integration	Only Indian EMS player doing EMS + OSAT + HDI PCB under one roof.
₹8,366 Cr order book	2.3x revenue coverage. Diversified across 6 verticals.
OSAT game-changer	India's first paying OSAT customer. Japan tech partnership (AOI). ₹4,000 Cr revenue target by FY30.
Revenue CAGR 54%	Exceptional historical growth trajectory.
Valuation compressed	From ATH P/E of ~140x to 57x now. PEG 1.01 looks reasonable.
Government backing	50% central + 20% state subsidy for OSAT. Strategic national importance.

🔴 Bear Case

Argument	Evidence
Guidance credibility destroyed	Initial ₹4,500 Cr → revised ₹4,100 Cr → actual ₹3,626 Cr. Management lost trust.
Cash flow disaster	CFO -₹600 Cr. FCF -₹1,841 Cr. WC days 125 vs 85-100 guidance.
Core P/E 99.6x	42% of PAT is Other Income. Excluding OI, stock trades at 100x earnings.
Downtrend firmly in place	-49% 1Y. All MAs SELL. 52W low within 4%. No base formation.
Broker exodus	Nuvama PT cut 35%. JM Fin Reduce. JPMorgan downgrade.
FIIs leaving, retail buying	FIIs 14.19%→7.28%. Shareholders +728%. Classic late-cycle pattern.
OSAT still 2+ years away	Commercial revenue only H2 2026. ₹570 Cr by FY27 on ₹3,307 Cr investment = low ROI initially.

18. Final Verdict

❌ AVOID — Broken Guidance, Broken Chart, Broken Cash Flow

Kaynes Technology has exceptional long-term structural tailwinds (EMS super-cycle, OSAT opportunity, full vertical integration) but three critical failures make it uninvestable at current levels:

📉 Guidance Credibility = Zero — Missed FY26 revenue by 11% vs already-lowered guidance, CFO was -₹600 Cr vs "marginally positive" guided. Management has lost the market's trust.
💸 Cash Flow Crisis — -₹600 Cr CFO on ₹364 Cr PAT is worse than any previous year. Working capital ballooned to 125 days. The business is consuming cash faster than it generates it, and OSAT capex will keep it negative for 2+ more years.
📊 Technical Free Fall — -49% from ATH, all MAs in SELL, 52W low within 4%. No base formation. Broker downgrades accelerating. The stock is in a bear market, and catching a falling knife is extremely risky.

What Would Change This View

One quarter of positive CFO — would signal working capital normalization
₹2,995 (52W low) holds and forms a base — needs 6-8 weeks of consolidation
Fresh order wins in OSAT or large EMS contracts
Management guidance for FY27 that is conservative and credible
New broker upgrades replacing the downgrade cycle

Suitable Investor Profile

Profile	Suitability
Long-term (5+ year) investor	🟡 Wait for base formation at ₹2,500-3,000
Swing trader (1-6 months)	❌ Avoid — downtrend, no setup
Momentum trader	❌ Avoid — worst momentum in EMS space
Value investor	❌ Avoid — Core P/E still 99.6x

Entry Triggers to Watch

₹2,995 holds as support for 4+ weeks → base forming
Q1 FY27 results (expected Aug 2026) show CFO improvement
Delivery % sustained above 40% for 2+ weeks
RSI crosses above 50 from oversold levels

Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from Screener.in consolidated view, TradingView, NSE official bhavcopy, BSE filings, and company presentations. Generated by PulkitAIAssistant using DeepSeek Chat model.