🇺🇸 Trade Like Trump: His Portfolio Beat the S&P 500 by 14 Percentage Points
President Trump's annual financial disclosure (released last week, 927 pages) reveals he made 21,285 stock trades in 2025 — 85 per trading day. Market data tracker Unusual Whales estimates his equity portfolio returned 37.3% since inauguration vs. 23.5% for the S&P 500.
Top five equity holdings (est. value):
| Stock | Estimated Value |
|---|---|
| Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) | $993M |
| Google / Alphabet (GOOGL) | $40.1M |
| Apple (AAPL) | $36M |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | $35.3M |
| Broadcom (AVGO) | $24M |
The disclosure also showed:
- $1.4B in crypto income (World Liberty Financial, $TRUMP Coin licensing)
- $300M+ in crypto assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum)
- Massive bond book with thousands of small positions ($1K-$25K each)
- Trading activity spiked to $194M in March 2026, then shifted to net selling in May
Key insight: Trump's discretionary account managers are actively trading mega-cap tech and AI names — the same stocks that lead the market. The "copy trade" effect among retail investors tracking Trump's portfolio via Unusual Whales could amplify moves in these stocks.
Stocks to Watch (US Only)
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 🟢 Positive (Named) | Trump's largest non-DJT equity holding at $40.1M; AI exposure via Gemini |
| AAPL | 🟢 Positive (Named) | $36M holding; Trump bought AAPL before Apr 8 tariff pause |
| NVDA | 🟢 Positive (Named) | $35.3M holding; AI tailwind confirmed by Trump's portfolio allocation |
| AVGO | 🟢 Positive (Named) | Top 5 holding at $24M; custom AI chip play |
| MSFT | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Trump portfolio holds via diversified book; Copilot/Azure AI monetization |
| AMZN | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Trump portfolio holds Amazon; AWS AI + retail resilience |
| META | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Held in diversified book; open-source AI (Llama) + ad recovery |
| DJT | ⚠️ Neutral-but-watch | 60% of portfolio but stock down 75% from inauguration; watch for Trump Media dilution/SPAC overhang |
Confidence: 4/5 — Based on official OGE disclosure analyzed by Unusual Whales and Business Insider. Actual holdings are disclosed in ranges; estimates use midpoint values.
🇺🇸 Trump's Brokers Bought $10M-$24M in Defence Stocks — Palantir, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Kratos
A new analysis by Responsible Statecraft reveals that brokers representing Trump purchased between $9.7M and $24.3M in defence stocks in 2025, including:
| Company | Est. Purchase Range | 2025 Performance |
|---|---|---|
| Palantir (PLTR) | $1.6M-$3.9M | +135% |
| GE Aerospace (GE) | Up to $3M | +84% |
| Lockheed Martin (LMT) | Up to $1.4M | — |
| Kratos Defense (KTOS) | $1.2M+ | +188% |
| Honeywell (HON) | $1.2M+ | — |
| General Dynamics (GD) | Up to $1M | — |
| TransDigm (TDG) | $800K+ | — |
| Boeing (BA) | $700K+ | — |
| Howmet Aerospace (HWM) | $200K+ | — |
| L3Harris (LHX) | $200K+ | — |
The disclosure comes as the administration launches new strikes on Iran and calls for a $1.5 trillion defence budget. These stocks benefit directly from Iran conflict escalation and weapons stockpile rebuilding.
Controversy: In April, Trump posted about Palantir on Truth Social ("great war fighting capabilities"), causing PLTR to spike 3% in minutes. This raises conflict-of-interest questions.
Stocks to Watch (US Only)
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 🟢 Positive (Named) | AI-powered targeting (Maven Smart System used in Iran strikes); $10B Army contract; 135% 2025 return |
| LMT | 🟢 Positive (Named) | F-35 production; $35B contract to quadruple THAAD production; Iran conflict demand |
| KTOS | 🟢 Positive (Named) | 188% return in 2025; drone/defence tech; kamikaze drone demand |
| GE | 🟢 Positive (Named) | Aircraft engine parts for Iran strike aircraft; defence-spin benefit |
| GD | 🟢 Positive (Named) | Heavy bombs and missiles used against Iran |
| RTX | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Tomahawk missile manufacturer; $373M emergency SM-3 procurement |
| HON | 🟢 Positive (Named) | Defence/aerospace conglomerate; Trump brokers bought $1.2M+ |
| BA | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | F-15 jets sold to Israel pre-Iran attack; Trump bought $700K+ in stock |
| TDG | 🟢 Positive (Named) | Aerospace parts; Trump bought $800K+; Pentagon-critical supplier |
Confidence: 4/5 — Responsible Statecraft/Quincy Institute analysis of OGE disclosure. Defence budget trajectory confirmed by WH statements.
🇺🇸 Aircraft Section 232 Probe — Trump Orders New Trade Talks, No Immediate Tariffs
President Trump signed a July 9 proclamation directing USTR Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to open new talks with trading partners on reducing imports of foreign-made aircraft, jet engines, and parts, following a Section 232 national security review.
Key details:
- The Commerce Department investigation found no need for "immediate tariffs"
- Trump will consider "other measures" if talks fail
- Affects Boeing's global competitors (Airbus, Embraer, etc.)
- Signals potential future protection for US aerospace manufacturing
Stocks to Watch (US Only)
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| BA | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Primary beneficiary of any import restriction on foreign aircraft |
| GE | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | GE Aerospace makes jet engines; reduced foreign competition supports pricing |
| RTX | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Pratt & Whitney engines; benefits from domestic preference |
| SPR | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Spirit AeroSystems — Boeing supplier; benefits from Boeing demand lift |
| HWM | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Howmet Aerospace — engine components; domestic preference tailwind |
Confidence: 3/5 — Official proclamation, but no tariffs imposed yet. Talks phase could take months. Watch for escalation vs. resolution.
🇺🇸 Trump Threatens to Halt Spain Trade via IEEPA
USTR Jamieson Greer told reporters Thursday that Trump "for sure can" use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to limit or halt trade with Spain, following escalating tensions over NATO defence spending commitments and Spain's condemnation of the Iran war. However, Greer noted Trump may "no longer want to explore that measure" after a "good meeting" with Spanish PM Sánchez.
Key details:
- Total US-Spain goods trade: $47.9B in 2025
- The Supreme Court earlier struck down Trump's universal IEEPA-based tariffs in February 2026
- Greer argued the ruling still permits targeted trade prohibitions
- Spain refused the 5% GDP defence target agreed by other NATO members
Stocks to Watch (US Only)
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| T | ⚠️ Neutral-but-watch | Telefonica exposure; Spain trade disruption could affect US telcos with EU operations |
| BA | ⚠️ Neutral-but-watch | Airbus (EU-based) parts supply chain disruption risk |
| SPY | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | EU trade disruption adds another layer of uncertainty to risk assets |
| NOC | ⚠️ Neutral-but-watch | NATO defence spending tensions could affect joint programmes |
Confidence: 2/5 — Greer acknowledged the measure may not proceed. More diplomatic posturing than likely action.
🇺🇸 USMCA Not Renewed — 10-Year Countdown Begins
The Trump administration has declined to renew the USMCA, triggering a 10-year countdown to expiration with annual joint reviews. The decision unleashes uncertainty across North American supply chains that are deeply integrated, especially in autos, agriculture, and energy.
Key impacts:
- Businesses face difficulty planning long-term investments
- Industries with products crossing borders multiple times are most vulnerable
- Mexico bought $125.2B in Texas goods alone in 2025
- Texas exports to Canada: $34.6B
Stocks to Watch (US Only)
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| F | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | Ford — deeply integrated North American supply chain; parts cross borders 5-8x |
| GM | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | GM — same supply chain exposure; worst case = tariff on every border crossing |
| CAT | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | Heavy equipment; USMCA uncertainty hurts Mexico/Canada plant operations |
| DE | 🔴 Negative (Inferred) | Deere — agricultural equipment; Canada/Mexico export exposure |
| X | ⚠️ Neutral-but-watch | US Steel — Canada/Mexico are key customers and raw material sources |
Confidence: 4/5 — Confirmed decision. The 10-year timeline means gradual impact, but annual reviews create continuous uncertainty.
🇺🇸 AI Executive Order 14409 & NSPM-11 — AI Infrastructure and Security Push
On June 2, 2026, Trump signed Executive Order 14409 (Promoting Advanced Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Security), followed by National Security Presidential Memorandum-11 on June 5. These direct:
- Federal agencies to harden against AI-enabled risks
- DoD and DoE to accelerate frontier AI for national security
- Protection of American IP from adversary exploitation
- Modernization of federal and private info systems
Stocks to Watch (US Only)
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Already the DoD's AI platform; Maven Smart System referenced in Iran strikes |
| MSFT | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Azure Government + OpenAI; federal AI infrastructure play |
| ORCL | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Oracle — federal cloud and AI contracts |
| CACI | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | CACI — federal IT, AI, and cybersecurity contractor |
| LMT | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | AI-enabled defence systems; NSPM-11 drives DoD AI adoption |
Confidence: 3/5 — EO is signed but implementation timelines are long. Directionally positive for federal AI contractors.
🇺🇸 Syria Sanctions Rescission — Trump Announces Intent to Remove from State Sponsor of Terrorism List
On July 8, Trump announced intent to rescind Syria's designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, following a 45-day Congressional notification period. This would open Syria to international trade, investment, and reconstruction — a massive infrastructure rebuild opportunity.
Stocks to Watch (US Only)
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| CAT | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Construction equipment for Syria rebuild |
| DE | 🟢 Positive (Inferred) | Agricultural equipment; Syria was once a major ag producer |
| BA | ⚠️ Neutral-but-watch | Could benefit from Syria aviation rebuild; but Iran tensions counterbalance |
| XOM | ⚠️ Neutral-but-watch | Syria oil/gas sector potential; but geopolitical risk remains |
Confidence: 2/5 — 45-day notice period; Congress could block. Potential is massive but timeline is uncertain and Iran tensions could derail any normalization.