🇺🇸 Trump Stock Trades Portfolio Update
President Donald Trump's latest financial disclosure reveals his portfolio (excluding his own company) returned 37.3% since inauguration, crushing the S&P 500's 23.5% gain. He made 21,285 stock trades in 2025 (85/day) and disclosed 3,642 trades in Q1 2026 with $194M in March 2026 trading volume alone.
Top 5 Equity Holdings by Value
| Holding | Estimated Value |
|---|---|
| Trump Media & Technology (DJT) | $993M |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | $40.1M |
| Apple (AAPL) | $36M |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | $35.3M |
| Broadcom (AVGO) | $24M |
Defence Stock Purchases
Trump's portfolio continues heavy defence exposure. Q1 2026-disclosed purchases include:
| Stock | Range | Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Palantir | $1.6M–$3.9M | PLTR |
| Lockheed Martin | $1M–$5M | LMT |
| General Dynamics | $1M–$5M | GD |
| Kratos Defense | $500K–$1M | KTOS |
| GE Aerospace | $1M–$5M | GE |
| Honeywell | $1M–$5M | HON |
| TransDigm | $500K–$1M | TDG |
| Boeing | $1M–$5M | BA |
| Howmet Aerospace | $500K–$1M | HWM |
| L3Harris | $500K–$1M | LHX |
Crypto Income
$1.4B in crypto income: $500M from World Liberty Financial (WLFI) and $635M from $TRUMP Coin licensing.
🟢 Copy-Trade Signals
Trump's largest non-DJT holdings are mega-cap tech: GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA, AVGO. The "copy trade" effect amplifies moves in these names whenever disclosed.
🇺🇸 Trump-US Policy Watch: Canada 50% Tariffs (Jul 20)
President Trump signed three proclamations on Jul 20 imposing 50% tariffs on Canadian goods — the first use of Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 in nearly a century. The tariffs cover:
- Motor vehicles: Canada's quotas penalize US auto imports vs other countries
- Alcoholic beverages: Canadian provinces halted US alcohol purchases (81% drop in imports)
- Dairy: Canada's TRQs on US cheese are more restrictive than EU cheese quotas
Effective date: 30 days after signing (mid-August 2026) Magnitude: ~$20B of Canadian imports affected (5.2% of total US imports from Canada) Excluded: Energy, potash, critical minerals, goods already under Section 232
🟢🟡 Stocks to Watch
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| GM | 🟡 HOLD | Integrated US-Canada supply chain — parts cost increase but less exposure than domestics; 22% drop in US auto exports to Canada already priced |
| F | 🟡 HOLD | Similar to GM; Canada retaliatory risk but direct tariff impact limited (excluded from Section 232 overlap) |
| TSLA | 🟢 BUY | No legacy Canada production dependency; benefits from US protectionism |
| STLA | 🔴 SELL | Most exposed European OEM in North America; Canada production base |
| XOM | 🟢 BUY | Energy explicitly excluded from tariffs; oil price tailwind from Hormuz crisis |
| CVX | 🟢 BUY | Same exclusion; international diversification |
| CAT | 🟡 HOLD | Construction/mining equipment — cement tariffs may raise input costs |
| WMT | 🟢 BUY | Retailer with massive import base; Section 122 expiry (Jul 24) is bigger tailwind |
| TGT | 🟢 BUY | Same Section 122 beneficiary — relief from 10% global surcharge |
| COST | 🟢 BUY | Import-heavy retailer; double benefit from Section 122 expiry |
| AMZN | 🟢 BUY | Retail + cloud; Section 122 expiry reduces cost of goods sold |
| HD | 🟢 BUY | Home improvement — cement tariff headwind but Section 122 tailwind dominates |
| LOW | 🟢 BUY | Same dynamics as HD |
🇺🇸 Defense Supply Chain Executive Order (Jul 20)
Trump signed an Executive Order "Securing America's Defense Supply Chains" that:
- Cuts waivers allowing defence contractors to buy critical minerals from China/ adversaries starting Jan 1, 2027
- Mandates supply chain mapping — complete indentured Bill of Materials tracing raw materials origin
- Requires qualification of domestic/ally alternative sources
- Targets China's stranglehold on rare earths and critical minerals
🟢 Stocks to Watch
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| MP | 🟢 BUY | MP Materials — only US rare earths producer; direct beneficiary of domestic sourcing mandate |
| PLTR | 🟢 BUY | Supply chain mapping/AI tools required by EO; Palantir's Foundry ideal for defense supply chain illumination |
| LMT | 🟢 BUY | Defence prime — benefits from reduced Chinese dependency; large installed base needs requalification |
| GD | 🟢 BUY | Similar to LMT; submarine/shipbuilding supply chains heavily reliant on specialty metals |
| NOC | 🟢 BUY | Northrop — long supply chains in aerospace/defence will need remapping |
| RTX | 🟢 BUY | Raytheon — electronics supply chain heavily exposed to Chinese components |
| HWM | 🟢 BUY | Howmet Aerospace — specialty metals producer; domestic sourcing tailwind |
| AA | 🟢 BUY | Alcoa — aluminum producer benefits from domestic procurement preference |
| KALU | 🟢 BUY | Kaiser Aluminum — same dynamic |
| CENX | 🟢 BUY | Century Aluminum — US producer beneficiary |
| GE | 🟢 BUY | GE Aerospace — long defence supply chains requiring compliance |
| HII | 🟢 BUY | Huntington Ingalls — shipbuilder with critical mineral supply chain needs |
| CLF | 🟢 BUY | Cleveland-Cliffs — domestic steel producer; defense-grade steel supplier |
🌍 Global Spillover: Strait of Hormuz Escalation
Situation update Jul 20-21:
- Trump said Iran "will pay" for killing 3 US service members
- US bombed Iran for 9th consecutive night
- Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen declared maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia
- Brent crude at $89.22/barrel (+1.3%), WTI at $83.23
- Gasoline back to $4/gallon in US
- Brent up ~20% this month from Hormuz crisis
- Amrita Sen (Energy Aspects): sustained Hormuz slowdown + depleted inventories could push oil to $100+
🟢🟡🔴 Stock Impact
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 🟢 BUY | Integrated oil major; direct beneficiary of $90+ Brent; US production hedged |
| CVX | 🟢 BUY | Same; Chevron has strong Gulf of Mexico production |
| OXY | 🟢 BUY | Permian-focused; Occidental benefits from every $1 oil increase (~$200M FCF) |
| EOG | 🟢 BUY | Low-cost Permian producer; breakeven under $40/bbl |
| COP | 🟢 BUY | ConocoPhillips; global E&P with Alaska/Europe production |
| HAL | 🟢 BUY | Halliburton — oil services demand spikes with production expansion |
| SLB | 🟢 BUY | Schlumberger — global oil services leader; demand tailwind |
| BP | 🟢 BUY | BP integrated; has Gulf production; dividend safe at current prices |
| SHEL | 🟢 BUY | Shell — diversified; LNG exposure also a tailwind |
| USO | 🟢 BUY | Oil ETF proxy for directional crude bet |
| DAL | 🔴 SELL | Delta — jet fuel cost spike (~30% of operating expenses); already guided lower |
| UAL | 🔴 SELL | United — fuel cost headwind; transatlantic/Hawaii routes exposed |
| AAL | 🔴 SELL | American — weakest balance sheet among US airlines; fuel costs bite hardest |
| LUV | 🔴 SELL | Southwest — fuel hedges expiring; unhedged exposure rising |
| CCL | 🔴 SELL | Carnival — fuel cost + discretionary spending risk |
| RCL | 🔴 SELL | Royal Caribbean — same; fuel + consumer sentiment headwind |
| NCLH | 🔴 SELL | Norwegian Cruise Line — most leveraged to fuel costs |
📅 Section 122 Tariff Expiry — 3 Days Away (Jul 24, 2026)
The 10-15% global import surcharge expires by statute on July 24, 2026 (150-day limit under Trade Act of 1974). This is now a 3-day countdown.
What happens:
- Cannot be extended by President alone — requires Congressional action
- Proposed replacement: 12.5% Section 301 tariffs on 46 countries (already in pipeline)
- EU already moved to 15% deal ceiling (Jul 1)
- Possibility of a duty-free gap between expiry and replacement
US Retail Beneficiaries (direct):
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | 🟢 BUY | Biggest US importer; Section 122 expiry saves ~$2B annually |
| TGT | 🟢 BUY | Heavy import exposure; relief on 10% surcharge is 200+ bps margin upside |
| COST | 🟢 BUY | Import-heavy model; membership model + tariff relief = margin expansion |
| AMZN | 🟢 BUY | Marketplace + retail; lower import costs flow to bottom line |
| HD | 🟢 BUY | Home Depot — large import base; construction materials cost relief |
| LOW | 🟢 BUY | Lowe's — same dynamic |
| ROST | 🟢 BUY | Ross Stores — off-price retail with import-heavy model |
| TJX | 🟢 BUY | TJ Maxx — same off-price import model |
| FIVE | 🟢 BUY | Five Below — low-price retail; tariff relief protects margins |
Stocks to Watch — Quick Reference
🇺🇸 Oil & Energy (Hormuz Crisis)
BUY: XOM, CVX, OXY, EOG, COP, HAL, SLB, BP, SHEL, USO
🇺🇸 Airlines & Cruises (Fuel Headwind)
SELL: DAL, UAL, AAL, LUV, CCL, RCL, NCLH
🇺🇸 Retail (Section 122 Expiry Jul 24)
BUY: WMT, TGT, COST, AMZN, HD, LOW, ROST, TJX, FIVE
🇺🇸 Defense (Supply Chain EO + Hormuz)
BUY: PLTR, LMT, GD, NOC, RTX, HWM, GE, HII, MP, AA, KALU, CENX, CLF
🇺🇸 Auto (Canada Tariffs)
BUY: TSLA | SELL: STLA | HOLD: GM, F
🇺🇸 Trump Copy-Trade (Portfolio Disclosure)
BUY: GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA, AVGO, PLTR, LMT, GD, GE, HON