EOG
1 deep-dive · 27 policy notes
What has moved EOG
18 dated calls from the policy coverage · 18 positive · 0 negative · 0 watch
- Positive2026-10-16inferred
A coordinated strategic-stock release caps spikes but does not clear a war-risk premium of more than $30 a barrel against the pre-conflict baseline, which is a sustained cash-flow windfall for producers
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-01inferred
Brent back above $100 on a Chinese product-export halt plus stalled US–Iran talks is a direct realisation input for integrated and E&P names. The move is being led by refined products rather than crude, so the integrateds capture more of it than pure upstreams ⚠️ inferred
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-09-30
Energy is the natural inflation hedge and oil is up roughly 14% on the month, its biggest monthly climb since July
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-30
A 14% monthly Brent gain with the East-West pipeline still offline and sanctions relief explicitly ruled out is close to a best case for upstream integrateds and services
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-16
Integrated and shale upstream realisations track Brent and WTI directly, both at four-month highs
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 16 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-16
Upstream realisations track Brent directly and both benchmarks settled at four-month highs
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-11
The war has no visible off-ramp before November, which removes the main downside catalyst for the energy complex
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 11 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-11
Energy is the only genuine inflation impulse left; upstream realisations track Brent, which closed September 10 at USD 107.63, the highest since May 19
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 11 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-10
Only a signed de-escalation breaks this trade; the shipping war is now widening rather than narrowing
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 10 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-10
Energy is the only real PPI driver (energy +4.2%, diesel +24.1%) and crude above USD 100 lifts upstream realisations
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 10 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-09
Triple-digit Brent lifts producers and services; USO tracks the front-month spike
Policy Pulse - Global - 09 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-09
Producers directly benefit while Brent holds USD 95-100+; cash-flow and buyback math improves at triple-digit crude
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 09 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-08
95 Brent regime + Goldman's into-2027 disruption call support energy earnings
Policy Pulse - Global - 08 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-08
Brent ~$97-98 + record backwardation = direct margin/earnings tailwind for the energy complex
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 08 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-08
Sustained >$95 Brent regime; Goldman sees disruptions into 2027
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 08 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-04
Sustained $90+ crude on closure risk
Policy Pulse - Global - 04 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-04
Crude +7% on the week; Hormuz premium persists with no deal in sight
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 04 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-03
Pure upstream, highest beta to crude at 5-week+ highs
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 03 Sep 2026
Deep-dive research
Mentioned in Policy Pulse
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026
G20 trade ministers endorsed a Milwaukee Framework on steel overcapacity as Greer put the MFN principle itself up for review, while a Section 301 overcapacity probe covering 16 economies including India remains the unexercised risk to SUNPHARMA, WELSPUNLIV and BHARATFORG. Brent went back above $100 on China's fuel-export halt, lifting XOM and CVX against DAL and CCL, the US 10-year held near 5.28% after its biggest quarterly gain since 1994, and Micron's blowout quarter drove a 2.9-3.3% Nikkei rally.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026
The G20 Trade Ministerial opened in Milwaukee on steel excess capacity, MFN erosion and forced labour - the same ground as the Section 301 tariffs under challenge at the Court of International Trade - while core PCE at 3.0% cut October Fed hike odds from 71% to 35% and eased the front end. Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline and Yanbu loadings, Gulf exports recovered to 23.3 mbpd with Brent near $103, and India kept 0% Section 232 tariffs on specialty drugs, supporting SUNPHARMA and DRREDDY.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 16 Sep 2026
Brent held above USD 108 after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline went offline, the Fed is set to deliver its first hike since 2023 with a 25bp move 94% priced, and the BoJ meets September 17-18 expected to lift rates to a 31-year high of 1.25%. ONGC and OIL gain on the crude bid while IOC, BPCL and HINDPETRO absorb negative marketing margins.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Sep 2026
The Senate kills the CLARITY Act 49-50, sending COIN down ~10% and CRCL 8-11% and closing crypto's legislative route for 2026, while a 25bp Fed hike is 94% priced into tonight's decision with the 10-year at 4.995%. Trump's $1.4bn crypto income and the bill's blind-trust ethics clause made this a leader-trade story.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 11 Sep 2026
Brent's surge to a USD 107.63 close (highest since May 19) and a hot 0.3% core CPI pushed the US 10-year to about 4.95% and the 30-year to 19-year highs - buy energy (XOM, CVX, ONGC), sell airlines (DAL, UAL, INDIGO). BRICS opens in New Delhi with CBDC payment links and critical minerals on the agenda, not a common currency.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 11 Sep 2026
August CPI matched at 3.4% y/y but core ran 0.3% m/m, holding September Fed hike odds near 60% and the 10-year near 4.95% - a headwind for NVDA, MU and INTC into ORCL's AI cloud beat. Trump's USD 5,000 dividend pledge costs an estimated USD 1.2-1.35 trillion (TLT risk, GLD bid) and Canada's Section 338 scope changes land September 15 (F, GM, STLA).
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 10 Sep 2026
Hot August PPI (headline +5.4% y/y, energy +4.2%, diesel +24.1%) and crude back above USD 100 pushed the 10-year to a 2023 high and September hike odds near 66%. Trump's top-9 energy holdings gained USD 1.5-4.4M during the Iran war (CVX, COP, XOM, OXY); Canada tariffs escalate to import bans on dairy, alcohol and motorcycles (F, GM, STLA, HOG) while aluminium bars and rods face 50% (AA).
Policy Pulse - Global - 09 Sep 2026
Day 194: Brent tops USD 100 as the tanker war widens (5 more tankers destroyed, Iran threatens Gulf ports). India: Sensex -813 to a 3-month low, IT -3%, rupee 95.08; metals and energy gain. BUY ONGC/OIL/XOM, SELL IOC/INDIGO/DAL.
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 09 Sep 2026
Brent crosses USD 100 as the US destroys 5 more Iranian tankers and Iran threatens Gulf ports; Dow closes -628 (S&P -0.6%) into Thursday CPI with ~55% Sept-hike odds. BUY XOM/CVX/HAL, SELL DAL/UAL/CCL, watch SPY/QQQ.
Policy Pulse - Global - 08 Sep 2026
Day 193 of Hormuz conflict: US strikes on 3 Iranian tankers and Houthi attacks on Saudi energy push Brent to ~USD 98; Goldman lifts Brent to USD 85 (Dec-26), disruptions seen into 2027. Rupee -0.35% to 94.81; BUY ONGC/OIL, SELL IOC/BPCL/INDIGO.
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 08 Sep 2026
Oil near USD 98 after US strikes on 3 Iranian tankers and Houthi hits on Saudi energy, plus Canada 15-50% retaliatory tariffs and 58% Sept-hike odds, drag the Dow ~600 pts on the first session back. BUY XOM/CVX, SELL DAL, watch X/HOG and DJT.
Policy Pulse - Global - 04 Sep 2026
Asia rallies Friday (Nikkei back above 65,000, Kospi +1.6%) on Waller hold hopes; then US jobs beat lifts Sept hike odds to 63%. Brent ~USD 95 on Day 189. India snaps 4-day fall: Sensex +363, metals/financials lead.
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 04 Sep 2026
Hot Aug jobs report (+162K vs 53K est) lifts Sept rate-hike odds to 63% - stocks open lower, yields jump. SNOW +17% and PLTR +8% keep software bid. Brent eases to ~USD 95; BUY XOM, SELL DAL.
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 03 Sep 2026
Section 232 drone tariffs (up to 100%) take effect Sep 3 - BUY RCAT, AVAV, KTOS. Brent tops USD 97 intraday USD 99; Fed hike odds slide to 54%. SELL DAL, UAL.
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 02 Sep 2026
Brent tops $95 on Day 187 of the Iran war as US strikes IRGC targets; bond rout lifts 10-yr to 4.8%. BUY XOM, CVX, HAL, SLB; SELL DAL, UAL. Fed hike odds 68%.
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 01 Sep 2026
Brent tops $92 as US-Iran fighting resumes (Day 186); supertankers struck in Hormuz. BUY XOM, CVX, HAL; SELL DAL, UAL. Fed Sep 16 hike bets, DJT -3%.
Policy Pulse — Global — 17 Aug 2026
Crude ~$89.50 on the indefinite Hormuz blockade + Wednesday FOMC minutes loom; India gets a sector catalyst from Modi's I-Day AI/defence agenda — BUY energy (XOM), SELL airlines; BUY Indian IT/defence
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 17 Aug 2026
Crude climbs ~1.1% to ~$89.50 on the indefinite Hormuz blockade; July retail sales -0.6% pulls yields off highs ahead of Wednesday FOMC minutes — BUY XOM/CVX/OXY, SELL DAL/UAL/CCL; AI rally pauses
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 14 Aug 2026
US threatens an indefinite Hormuz blockade; oil jumps ~2% toward a 6% weekly gain (Brent ~87-88, IEA cuts supply 4.3M bpd) — BUY XOM/CVX/OXY, SELL DAL/UAL/CCL; S&P pauses near record
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 03 Aug 2026
Trump cancels Iran strike, opens Hormuz talks — oil crashes ~6%. SELL energy (XOM, CVX, OXY), BUY airlines/cruises (DAL, UAL, CCL) and consumer.
Policy Pulse — Global Spillover — 27 Jul 2026
Global markets rally on US-Iran war pause — Sensex +776, S&P 500 +1%, oil crashes 7%. Indian refiners reverse from SELL to BUY. ONGC biggest loser. BEL strong Q1. Fed meeting + Big Tech earnings this week. Saudi strikes Houthis — Red Sea risk persists.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 27 Jul 2026
US-Iran war pause holds — oil crashes 7%, S&P 500 rallies 1%. Brent at 85. Airlines/cruises reverse to BUY. Defence stocks dial back to HOLD. Fed week + Big Tech earnings in focus. Trump meets Netanyahu tomorrow on Iran trajectory.
Policy Pulse — Global Spillover — 24 Jul 2026
Strait of Hormuz crisis at peak — 13th night of US strikes, Iran rejects ceasefire, oil above 00. Generic drug tariff timeline begins Aug 1. Section 122 expiry relief for importers. Stock impact: BUY oil/gas/defence/renewables, SELL airlines/refiners/generic pharma.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 24 Jul 2026
Section 122 expires, replaced by Section 301 (10-12.5%) forced labor tariffs on 60 economies. Iran tariff EO signed. Hormuz crisis deepens — oil above $100. Generic drug tariff timeline begins. Stock impact: BUY oil/defence/retail, SELL airlines/cruises/generic pharma.
Policy Pulse — Global — 17 Jul 2026
Strait of Hormuz escalation: buy XOM, CVX, OXY, EOG; sell DAL, UAL, AAL, CCL, RCL. Section 301 deadline Jul 20: buy WMT, TGT, COST if Section 122 lapses; sell TCS, INFY, WIPRO, SUNPHARMA if 12.5% tariff hits.
Policy Pulse — Global — 13 Jul 2026
Trump says US will get 'paid to guard' Strait of Hormuz — oil at 5-78 sustained. Iran tensions escalate with fresh strikes. Oil/gas stocks up (XOM, CVX, OXY), airlines down (DAL, UAL), cruises down (CCL, RCL). India-US trade talks stall adds EM uncertainty.
Policy Pulse — Trump — 13 Jul 2026
Trump signs aircraft Section 232 EO boosting US aerospace (BA, GE, RTX). Says US will get 'paid to guard' Strait of Hormuz — oil stocks up, airlines down. Crypto disclosure analyzed: .4B income invested in mega-cap tech (GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA, AVGO).