Asia Buys Wall Street's Relief (Pre-Jobs Session)
Seven of ten Asian benchmarks closed higher Friday, led by the markets hit hardest mid-week: Hang Seng +1.74% to 25,650.87, Kospi +1.64% to 6,687.21 (recovering ~46% of Wednesday's crash), Taiex +1.51% to 46,551.13, Nikkei 225 +1.26% to 65,020.94 (back above 65,000 as the yen gave back part of its surge to 156.38/USD; JGB 10-yr eased ~6bp to 2.909%). Straits Times +0.94%. China sat out the rally (Shanghai -0.30%, Shenzhen -0.79%) and the ASX 200 slipped -0.16%. The driver was Fed Governor Waller's conditional lean toward a September hold plus New York Fed's Williams on easing inflation — global yields eased and the dollar softened (DXY 99.10). Korea's August CPI accelerated to 3.1% y/y (from 2.8%) — a reminder that Asia's own inflation is sticky even as rate anxiety centres on the US.
The US Jobs Beat Re-Rates the Global Curve (Post-Asia)
August nonfarm payrolls +162,000 vs ~53,000 expected flipped sentiment after Asia closed: September Fed hike odds jumped to ~63% (from ~54%), Treasury yields rose, gold -2% and Bitcoin -3%. Global rate calculus now hinges on next week's US CPI/PPI, the ECB meeting (a hike is expected), and the BoJ's Sep 17-18 meeting (hike expectations building; Japan's 10-yr has been pinned near 3% - 1996 levels). German bund yields touched their highest since 2011 earlier this week - the global bond market remains the single biggest risk variable for equities everywhere.
| Stock | Impact | Reason | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY / QQQ | 🟡 Watch | Hike odds ~63%; direction set by CPI/PPI before Sep 16 FOMC | Medium |
| XOM / CVX / OXY | 🟢 Positive | Crude +7% on the week; Hormuz premium intact | High |
Oil Day 189: Brent ~$95, Kuwait Drawn Into the Fight
Brent settled $95.52 Thursday and traded ~$94.5-96 Friday; WTI ~$90.5. The Strait remains the core risk: measured transits fell Thursday, and Kuwait's army said it confronted hostile Iranian missile/drone attacks - a new front in the six-month conflict. No deal progress. Crude is ~+7% for the week; MCX crude ended Rs 8,556 (-87) with MCX gold Rs 155,031 (-744).
| Stock | Impact | Reason | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| XOM / CVX / OXY / EOG / COP / HAL / SLB / USO | 🟢 Positive | Sustained $90+ crude on closure risk | High |
| DAL / UAL / AAL / LUV | 🔴 Negative | Jet fuel cost pressure at multi-year highs | High |
India: Relief Rally Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak, But the Week Is Still Red
Sensex +362.57 (+0.48%) to 76,515.43, Nifty +24.25 (+0.10%) to 23,897.70 — yet the week closed -1.2%/-1.0%, a fourth straight weekly decline (longest in five months), as Brent's ~7% weekly surge and global yields dominated. Friday's leadership: metals (Nifty Metal +1.07%; Tata Steel +2.49%, Hindustan Zinc +2.22%) and financial services (+0.49%; SBI Life +3.50% top Nifty gainer, HDFC Life +2.42% — rate-expectation relief; HDFC Bank +0.8% after reportedly raising ~$12B via FCNR(B) deposits under RBI's concessional swap window, which also underpins the rupee at ~94.49). Lagging: Pharma -0.68%, IT -0.47% (HCLTech -1.94%), Auto -0.45% (Maruti -1.27%) — auto fell ~4% for the week on sales-growth concerns. Smallcaps hit a record high. Reverse-AI-trade check: NOT active for Indian IT — Indian IT fell with global tech even as US software soared; the semis-to-software rotation is a US-internal phenomenon.
| Stock | Impact | Reason | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ONGC / OIL | 🟢 Positive | Upstream leverage to Brent ~$95-96 | High |
| RELIANCE | 🟢 Positive | Energy value + refining; +1.5% Friday | Medium |
| IOC / BPCL / HPCL | 🟡 Watch | Crude spike squeezes marketing margins if retail prices stay frozen | Medium |
| INDIGO | 🔴 Negative | ATF is the largest cost line; crude +7% week | High |
| TATASTEEL / HINDZINC | 🟢 Positive | Metal index +1.07% Friday; Hindustan Zinc adds REE-block optionality | Medium |
| HDFCBANK / SBILIFE | 🟢 Positive | Rate-relief rally + FCNR(B) inflows support financials | Medium |
What to Watch (Global)
US CPI/PPI next week before the Sep 16 FOMC; ECB decision (hike expected); BoJ Sep 17-18; SEMICON India Sep 16-17 (DIXON/AMBER/KAYNES watch); 57th GST Council Sep 12; record six-IPO day in India Sep 9; Russian parliamentary elections this month (mobilization watch); Hormuz transits and any Kuwait-front escalation headlines.