CVX
4 deep-dives · 83 policy notes
What has moved CVX
20 dated calls from the policy coverage · 7 positive · 3 negative · 10 watch
- Positive2026-10-16inferred
The US majors capture the same realisations as the Indian upstreams with no administered-pricing drag, and the diesel waiver directs the tightest product barrel into their system
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 16 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-16inferred
Integrated majors are price-takers on the crude marker rather than the discount; the Graham Act matters to them through the Brent level that a Russian supply interruption would move, not through their own compliance
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-16inferred
A coordinated strategic-stock release caps spikes but does not clear a war-risk premium of more than $30 a barrel against the pre-conflict baseline, which is a sustained cash-flow windfall for producers
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-15
The Brent-WTI spread narrowing while diesel stays dislocated is a product-market story rather than a crude story, so the integrateds' upstream earnings are less exposed than the refiners'
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 15 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-15
The integrateds are marked to crude above $100 through the upstream, while their refining arms carry the same product-price exposure as the pure-plays
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-15
named. Five separate $5 million-scale buys executed on a single day is a portfolio construction signal, and disclosed buys in dividend-paying names tend to be read as a defensive tilt
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-13
Crude above USD 100 with an unresolved Gulf chokepoint is the direct earnings channel for the majors and the oil-services complex
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 13 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-13
The integrateds are marked to crude above $100 through the upstream, but their refining arms face the same crack compression as the pure-play refiners
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 13 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-12
Every escalation step in Hormuz lands on the crude price first, and the majors and oil-services complex are the direct listed expression
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 12 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-12
Integrateds are marked to crude, which held above $106 rather than accelerating once the diesel news landed
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 12 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-12
Integrateds and services are marked to crude, which held above $106 rather than accelerating once the diesel news landed
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 12 Oct 2026 - Negative2026-10-09
A credible path to reopening Hormuz deflates the war premium that had pushed the energy complex up more than 60% this year; the shut-ins are a partial offset
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 09 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-09
USD 1-5 million each on the same reshuffling day; the Chevron and ConocoPhillips adds extend an energy book already benefiting from the Iran war
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 09 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-08
A credible escalation path against Iran plus a quarter of Gulf of Mexico output shut in is a direct cash-flow upgrade for producers and oil-services; the EIA has already lifted Q4 Brent to about USD 105
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 08 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-08
USD 1-5 million each bought on the same reshuffling day; ConocoPhillips and Chevron add to an energy book that has already benefited from the Iran war
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 08 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-07
An official USD 105 Q4 forecast plus 4.5 mbpd of shut-in production is upward revision to cash-flow estimates, not a spike trade
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 07 Oct 2026 - Negative2026-10-06
A sub-USD 100 Brent compresses upstream realisations and services activity
Policy Pulse - Global - 06 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-06
No volume change; a Brent near USD 98 with a Brent–WTI spread above USD 10 is mixed for integrateds
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 06 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-05
Integrated majors are insulated by upstream offset. A lower crude price modestly compresses the upstream leg while improving refining feedstock economics
Policy Pulse - Global - 05 Oct 2026 - Negative2026-10-02
A co-ordinated product release plus a soft US jobs print removes two supports from crude on the same morning. Wells Fargo downgraded ExxonMobil to equal weight on October 1, and the front-month Brent chart is now genuinely two-way
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 02 Oct 2026
Deep-dive research
Policy Pulse — Global — 21 Jul 2026
🌍 Hormuz crisis: Day 9 of US strikes on Iran, Houthis blockade Saudi, Brent at 9.22, US gas at /gal. Canada hit with 50% Section 338 tariffs on 0B of goods. Section 122 expires in 3 days (Jul 24). Impact: 🟢 BUY XOM, CVX, OXY, WMT, TGT, COST, TSLA, MP | 🔴 SELL DAL, UAL, AAL, CCL, STLA
Policy Pulse — Trump/US Watch — 21 Jul 2026
Trump's portfolio beats S&P (37.3% vs 23.5%); Canada slapped with 50% Section 338 tariffs on autos/booze/dairy; Defense Supply Chain EO cuts China waivers. Section 122 expiry in 3 days. Impact: 🟢 BUY GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA, PLTR, XOM, WMT, TGT, MP | 🔴 SELL DAL, UAL, STLA
Policy Pulse — Global — 20 Jul 2026
🌍 Iran declares 'full-scale war' as US strikes 9th night. Houthis blockade Saudi ports. Brent at 8, US gas at /gal. Section 122 tariff expires Jul 24 (4 days). Impact: 🟢 BUY oil majors and retailers | 🔴 SELL airlines and cruises.
Policy Pulse — Trump — 20 Jul 2026
🔴 Iran war escalation: 9th night of US strikes, Brent breaks 0, Houthis blockade Saudi ports. 📅 Section 122 tariff expires Jul 24 in 4 days. Impact: 🟢 BUY XOM, CVX, OXY, WMT, TGT | 🔴 SELL DAL, UAL, AAL
Mentioned in Policy Pulse
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 13 Oct 2026
China's CXMT claimed a 4F2 DRAM design and the KOSPI fell 5.46%, hitting MU, AVGO and INTC while re-rating TCS, INFY and HCLTECH through Nifty IT's 5.22% gain. Five days out, the Graham Act had still produced no notice to Congress, leaving IOC, BPCL, ONGC and Sun Pharma exposed on the Indian side.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 13 Oct 2026
Goldman beat on a 72% surge in equities revenue while JPMorgan missed its first quarter in three years. Trump floated a US diesel export cap five days before the Graham Act's October 18 deadline, hitting VLO and PSX, and Trump Media pulled three crypto ETF filings as DJT fell 5% on a 32% approval rating.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 12 Oct 2026
Brent topped USD 106 after a second deadly strike on Riyadh's airport and a tanker hit at Hormuz, positive for XOM, CVX and VLO and negative for DAL, UAL and IOC. Trump's Russian diesel deal capped the spike instead of reversing it, gold held near USD 4,180 with the US 30-year at 24-year highs, and Canada sent its largest trade mission to India in 30 years to push a trade deal.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 09 Oct 2026
Brent slipped to about USD 103 after Trump ruled out an Iran strike before the November 3 midterms, negative for XOM and CVX and positive for airlines and Indian oil marketers; a strong 30-year auction pulled the US long end back from a 24-year high; and the US-China 30-for-30 tariff lists named toys and appliances and medical devices, with the truce extended to January 10, 2027.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 09 Oct 2026
Trump's August disclosure logged 517 trades, including a Dell sale on the same day he handed Dell a medal and Nvidia bought before he decorated Jensen Huang; Washington simultaneously froze Microsoft and Adobe out of the green-card PERM programme, and SpaceX's USD 8 billion spectrum buy hit T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T while lifting tower REITs.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 08 Oct 2026
Brent rose 4.25 percent to USD 104.5 after Axios reported the Pentagon has been told to prepare for a possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran and Tropical Storm Isaias shut in a quarter of Gulf of Mexico output, positive for XOM, CVX and ONGC and negative for DAL, IOC and BPCL; hawkish September FOMC minutes kept the 10-year near 5.28 percent and the 30-year at 2002 levels, and India joined the US-led 15-country excess-capacity initiative while a Section 301 investigation into India's own industrial policies remains live.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 08 Oct 2026
Trump's August financial disclosure showed 517 trades including the largest single position of the month, up to USD 25 million of META, plus USD 1-5 million of SPCX notes bought two days before a national space transportation policy targeting 1,000 launches a year by 2030; completion of Trump Accounts auto-enrolment for nearly 70 million children is positive for HOOD and SCHW. The indefinite de minimis suspension reaches its October 22 compliance date, positive for LLY, MRK and PFE by removing personal-importation arbitrage and negative for WMT and TGT on per-parcel cost.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 07 Oct 2026
The EIA raised its 2026 Brent forecast 8 percent to about USD 98 and lifted Q4 2026 to USD 105 with 4.5 million barrels per day still shut in, positive for XOM, CVX and ONGC and negative for DAL, UAL and Indian refiners IOC and BPCL. The 30-year Treasury yield held near its highest since 2002 with the September FOMC minutes due tonight and CME pricing an October hike near 20 percent, while French OAT yields kept rising and the euro sat near a 17-month low. Spot gold above USD 4,167 with the rupee at a five-month low of 97.03 is a translation positive for TCS and INFY and an input-cost negative for TITAN and MRF.
Policy Pulse - Global - 06 Oct 2026
Brent fell back below USD 100 to USD 98.33 as Hormuz transits and the Saudi East-West pipeline recovered and the G7's 100-million-barrel release began flowing - a cost tailwind for IOC, BPCL and INDIGO and a headwind for ONGC and XOM. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq printed new records on Tuesday as the 10-year Treasury eased to 5.26% from a 19-year high of 5.35%, the euro hit a 17-month low on French fiscal stress, and BMI Research raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to USD 107 a barrel while Kenanga went to USD 91 for 2026.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 06 Oct 2026
Trump signed an Emergency Tax Relief on Diesel Fuel order deferring the federal diesel excise tax from October 5 to December 31 for highway use - a per-mile cost cut for ODFL, CSX and DAL rather than a supply fix, with pump diesel still at USD 6.32 a gallon. CBP opened CAPE Phase 3 today, releasing roughly USD 20.6 billion of IEEPA tariff refunds to about 3,700 court plaintiffs - a cash event for WMT, TGT and AMZN. The copy-trade signal of the session was PTC Inc, up 30% in a day on disclosed presidential holdings of up to USD 6.15 million, while the July filing's USD 5-25 million sales each of AMZN and MSFT remain the largest non-DJT equity exits.
Policy Pulse - Global - 05 Oct 2026
The G7 began a coordinated 100-million-barrel IEA release with a frontloaded diesel leg after Trump's export-ban threat, splitting the crude market - Brent near $101.5 against WTI below $90 and Murban at $110.80 - which is positive for DAL, UAL and INDIGO and negative for VLO and PSX. The Lindsey Graham Act's secondary sanctions on Russian-crude buyers could be decided by October 18, a live risk for RELIANCE, IOC and BPCL, while the US-Ukraine fund's first $30 million minerals deal and China's rare-earth suspension extension to January 2027 lift MP and USAR.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 05 Oct 2026
Trump stood up the Super Intelligence Force on Sunday - a White House task force chaired by DNI Jay Clayton, with FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson and Pentagon CTO Emil Michael, and a charter written to prevent overregulation - a capex-permission signal for NVDA, AVGO and VRT. USTR Greer said negotiated tariff caps will be credited against the Section 301 excess-capacity probe, the July disclosure showed $5-25 million sales each of AMZN and MSFT alongside a June buy of small-cap defence name EFOR, and $90 Medicare payments to 20.8 million beneficiaries plus a renewed $5,000 cheque pledge read as a transfer positive for WMT, DG and UNH.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 02 Oct 2026
A 29,000 US payroll print against a 90,000 consensus removed the October Fed hike and reversed the global bond selloff that had driven the 10-year Treasury to a 24-year high — a positive for TCS, INFY and QQQ and a relief valve for emerging markets. Trump said Europe agreed to release emergency diesel stocks, sending Brent below $100 and lifting DAL, UAL, CCL and RCL while pressuring XOM and CVX, even as the Iran ceasefire expired and three Hormuz tankers were struck. G20 Milwaukee produced a steel framework and no China tariff timetable, French spreads hit their widest over Germany since 2012, and Micron's blowout quarter drove a memory-led Asian relief rally.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 02 Oct 2026
September payrolls came in at just 29,000 against an 84,000-90,000 consensus with unemployment at 4.2% and July revised into a loss, taking the October Fed hike off the table and sending Treasury yields tumbling from a 24-year high. Trump announced on Truth Social that Europe will release emergency diesel stocks, pushing Brent below $100 and lifting DAL, UAL, CCL and RCL while pressuring XOM and CVX. Greer closed the G20 in Milwaukee with no timetable for US-China tariff cuts, and the July disclosure showed Trump's team sold up to $25 million each of AMZN and MSFT.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026
G20 trade ministers endorsed a Milwaukee Framework on steel overcapacity as Greer put the MFN principle itself up for review, while a Section 301 overcapacity probe covering 16 economies including India remains the unexercised risk to SUNPHARMA, WELSPUNLIV and BHARATFORG. Brent went back above $100 on China's fuel-export halt, lifting XOM and CVX against DAL and CCL, the US 10-year held near 5.28% after its biggest quarterly gain since 1994, and Micron's blowout quarter drove a 2.9-3.3% Nikkei rally.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 01 Oct 2026
Trump Media filed the S-4 for its all-stock merger with TAE Technologies, turning DJT into one of the first publicly listed commercial fusion developers. The White House Super Intelligence order added no compliance burden on NVDA, AVGO and MSFT, while the Senate killed the Stop Insider Trading Act 53-47 and the July disclosure showed pure buys in SO and PSA. Boeing took a $20bn-plus Navy F/A-XX award against NOC, and Micron's blowout quarter lifted Nasdaq futures as Brent went back above $100.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026
The G20 Trade Ministerial opened in Milwaukee on steel excess capacity, MFN erosion and forced labour - the same ground as the Section 301 tariffs under challenge at the Court of International Trade - while core PCE at 3.0% cut October Fed hike odds from 71% to 35% and eased the front end. Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline and Yanbu loadings, Gulf exports recovered to 23.3 mbpd with Brent near $103, and India kept 0% Section 232 tariffs on specialty drugs, supporting SUNPHARMA and DRREDDY.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026
Core PCE cooled to 3.0% and cut the priced odds of an October hike from 71% to 35%, sending short-dated yields lower and equity indices higher, while the Section 301 forced-labour tariffs - 10-12.5% on 86 countries covering 99.4% of US imports - went before the Court of International Trade and Trump credited a $15bn Iowa steel mill to his 50% steel tariffs. Canada's $1bn alcohol and dairy import ban is live, and the July 278-T showed 1,156 trades including Strategy bought at the 2026 lows.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 16 Sep 2026
Brent held above USD 108 after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline went offline, the Fed is set to deliver its first hike since 2023 with a 25bp move 94% priced, and the BoJ meets September 17-18 expected to lift rates to a 31-year high of 1.25%. ONGC and OIL gain on the crude bid while IOC, BPCL and HINDPETRO absorb negative marketing margins.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Sep 2026
The Senate kills the CLARITY Act 49-50, sending COIN down ~10% and CRCL 8-11% and closing crypto's legislative route for 2026, while a 25bp Fed hike is 94% priced into tonight's decision with the 10-year at 4.995%. Trump's $1.4bn crypto income and the bill's blind-trust ethics clause made this a leader-trade story.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 15 Sep 2026
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is out for weeks, leaving Hormuz as the only channel and Brent above USD 107 - bullish ONGC and XOM, painful for IOC, BPCL, HINDPETRO and INDIGO. The US 10-year crossed 5% and sank the Sensex 778 points to 74,003.82, but the reverse-AI rotation finally fired: Nifty IT +2.19% led by HCLTECH, INFY and TCS.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Sep 2026
Trump rejected Anthropic's AI slowdown call outright - 'whoever wins AI wins' - removing policy risk from the NVDA/AVGO/VRT capex trade even as the 10-year crossed 5% and hike odds topped 90% into tomorrow's FOMC. Canada's Section 338 product changes took effect today (ATVs and dairy in, road salt and cement out) and the Senate holds its 60-vote CLARITY Act test this afternoon (COIN, HOOD).
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 11 Sep 2026
Brent's surge to a USD 107.63 close (highest since May 19) and a hot 0.3% core CPI pushed the US 10-year to about 4.95% and the 30-year to 19-year highs - buy energy (XOM, CVX, ONGC), sell airlines (DAL, UAL, INDIGO). BRICS opens in New Delhi with CBDC payment links and critical minerals on the agenda, not a common currency.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 11 Sep 2026
August CPI matched at 3.4% y/y but core ran 0.3% m/m, holding September Fed hike odds near 60% and the 10-year near 4.95% - a headwind for NVDA, MU and INTC into ORCL's AI cloud beat. Trump's USD 5,000 dividend pledge costs an estimated USD 1.2-1.35 trillion (TLT risk, GLD bid) and Canada's Section 338 scope changes land September 15 (F, GM, STLA).
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 10 Sep 2026
ECB hikes 25bp to a 2.50% deposit rate, its second hike of 2026, blaming Middle East energy costs. Brent holds above USD 100-102 after the US sank five Iranian tankers and Iran struck 10 vessels, with Hormuz flows below 2 mbpd. Buy energy (XOM, CVX, OXY, VLO), sell airlines (DAL, UAL) and India's OMCs (IOC, BPCL, HINDPETRO); ONGC benefits.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 10 Sep 2026
Hot August PPI (headline +5.4% y/y, energy +4.2%, diesel +24.1%) and crude back above USD 100 pushed the 10-year to a 2023 high and September hike odds near 66%. Trump's top-9 energy holdings gained USD 1.5-4.4M during the Iran war (CVX, COP, XOM, OXY); Canada tariffs escalate to import bans on dairy, alcohol and motorcycles (F, GM, STLA, HOG) while aluminium bars and rods face 50% (AA).
Policy Pulse - Global - 09 Sep 2026
Day 194: Brent tops USD 100 as the tanker war widens (5 more tankers destroyed, Iran threatens Gulf ports). India: Sensex -813 to a 3-month low, IT -3%, rupee 95.08; metals and energy gain. BUY ONGC/OIL/XOM, SELL IOC/INDIGO/DAL.
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 09 Sep 2026
Brent crosses USD 100 as the US destroys 5 more Iranian tankers and Iran threatens Gulf ports; Dow closes -628 (S&P -0.6%) into Thursday CPI with ~55% Sept-hike odds. BUY XOM/CVX/HAL, SELL DAL/UAL/CCL, watch SPY/QQQ.
Policy Pulse - Global - 08 Sep 2026
Day 193 of Hormuz conflict: US strikes on 3 Iranian tankers and Houthi attacks on Saudi energy push Brent to ~USD 98; Goldman lifts Brent to USD 85 (Dec-26), disruptions seen into 2027. Rupee -0.35% to 94.81; BUY ONGC/OIL, SELL IOC/BPCL/INDIGO.
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 08 Sep 2026
Oil near USD 98 after US strikes on 3 Iranian tankers and Houthi hits on Saudi energy, plus Canada 15-50% retaliatory tariffs and 58% Sept-hike odds, drag the Dow ~600 pts on the first session back. BUY XOM/CVX, SELL DAL, watch X/HOG and DJT.
Policy Pulse - Global - 04 Sep 2026
Asia rallies Friday (Nikkei back above 65,000, Kospi +1.6%) on Waller hold hopes; then US jobs beat lifts Sept hike odds to 63%. Brent ~USD 95 on Day 189. India snaps 4-day fall: Sensex +363, metals/financials lead.
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 04 Sep 2026
Hot Aug jobs report (+162K vs 53K est) lifts Sept rate-hike odds to 63% - stocks open lower, yields jump. SNOW +17% and PLTR +8% keep software bid. Brent eases to ~USD 95; BUY XOM, SELL DAL.
Policy Pulse - Global - 03 Sep 2026
Day 188: Brent tops USD 97, touches USD 99 - BUY XOM, ONGC; SELL DAL, INDIGO. Asia mixed (KOSPI rebounds). US hike odds slide to 54%. Sensex -417, Bank Nifty +0.36%, rupee 94.59.
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 03 Sep 2026
Section 232 drone tariffs (up to 100%) take effect Sep 3 - BUY RCAT, AVAV, KTOS. Brent tops USD 97 intraday USD 99; Fed hike odds slide to 54%. SELL DAL, UAL.
Policy Pulse - Global - 02 Sep 2026
Global risk-off Day 187: KOSPI -4%, Nikkei -2.9%, bond rout (US 10-yr 4.8%, JGB 3%). Brent $95. India Sensex -374 but FIIs net buy Rs 6,688 cr. BUY ONGC, COALINDIA; SELL INDIGO, WIPRO.
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 02 Sep 2026
Brent tops $95 on Day 187 of the Iran war as US strikes IRGC targets; bond rout lifts 10-yr to 4.8%. BUY XOM, CVX, HAL, SLB; SELL DAL, UAL. Fed hike odds 68%.
Policy Pulse - Global - 01 Sep 2026
Brent +2% to $92 on Hormuz re-escalation (Day 186); India Q1 GDP 7.8% beats all forecasts; Fed hike bets. BUY XOM, ONGC; SELL DAL, INDIGO.
Policy Pulse - Trump/US - 01 Sep 2026
Brent tops $92 as US-Iran fighting resumes (Day 186); supertankers struck in Hormuz. BUY XOM, CVX, HAL; SELL DAL, UAL. Fed Sep 16 hike bets, DJT -3%.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 27 Aug 2026
Trump oil/gas trades during Iran war: XOM, CVX, COP active; $500K-$1M XOM sold pre-ceasefire. Holdings up 39% ($4.6M-$15.5M gain).
Policy Pulse — Global Spillover — 26 Aug 2026
US-Canada trade war threatens North American supply chains; Hormuz remains two-way risk; G20 Trade Ministerial preview
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 26 Aug 2026
Trump invokes Section 338 for 50% Canada tariffs; New disclosure reveals SpaceX investment, heavy buying of HD, MA, V, BRK.B
Policy Pulse — Global Spillover — 18 Aug 2026
Brent crude tops $90 on Hormuz blockade concerns; markets await Wed FOMC minutes; AI rally pauses at records
Policy Pulse — Global — 17 Aug 2026
Crude ~$89.50 on the indefinite Hormuz blockade + Wednesday FOMC minutes loom; India gets a sector catalyst from Modi's I-Day AI/defence agenda — BUY energy (XOM), SELL airlines; BUY Indian IT/defence
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 17 Aug 2026
Crude climbs ~1.1% to ~$89.50 on the indefinite Hormuz blockade; July retail sales -0.6% pulls yields off highs ahead of Wednesday FOMC minutes — BUY XOM/CVX/OXY, SELL DAL/UAL/CCL; AI rally pauses
Policy Pulse — Global — 14 Aug 2026
US indefinite-Hormuz-blockade threat + IEA supply cut (4.3M bpd) fuel a ~6% weekly oil rally — BUY XOM/CVX/OXY, SELL DAL/UAL; India refiners under pressure as rupee dips; only a signed deal flips the trade
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 14 Aug 2026
US threatens an indefinite Hormuz blockade; oil jumps ~2% toward a 6% weekly gain (Brent ~87-88, IEA cuts supply 4.3M bpd) — BUY XOM/CVX/OXY, SELL DAL/UAL/CCL; S&P pauses near record
Policy Pulse — Global — 13 Aug 2026
AI buying + easing oil carry global equities; Hormuz stays unsigned two-way (Brent ~87.7); India's Tata Motors +83% Q1 offsets metals/bank drag
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 13 Aug 2026
AI rally carries US stocks toward records as oil eases (Brent ~87.7); Truth API hit by a First-Amendment lawsuit; S&P near record, Nasdaq 100 +1.2%
Policy Pulse — Global — 12 Aug 2026
Tame CPI + AI earnings (CoreWeave +18%) carry global equities; Hormuz holds crude near $89 two-way; India rotates to metals/PSU-banks away from Tata/IT/healthcare
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 12 Aug 2026
In-line July CPI (3.4%) keeps the Fed at bay and re-ignites the AI rally (CoreWeave +18%, Super Micro); Hormuz holds crude near $89; no new Trump trades
Policy Pulse — Global — 11 Aug 2026
Hormuz 'honeymoon' over - crude rallies to 88-90 as US-Iran deal hopes fade (possible 120-140 tipping point into Q4); markets camp at highs ahead of Aug 12 US CPI; pharma/IT cushion Indian dip
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 11 Aug 2026
Trump Media posts 238M Q2 loss as its crypto bet backfires, but Truth API lands 10+ paying HFT clients (60-100K/mo) and BTC treasury tops 900M; Trump 'low-keying it' on Iran keeps crude near 90
Policy Pulse — Global — 10 Aug 2026
Three global threads: US critical-minerals spend reprices rare-earth/magnet supply chain; Hormuz close-but-not-signed keeps crude two-way (Brent ~83.5); soft US jobs data lifts rate-cut trade ahead of Aug 12 CPI
Policy Pulse — Global — 07 Aug 2026
US polysilicon tariffs reshuffle global solar (SELL China c-Si exporters JKS/LONGI, BUY FSLR/SEDG); crude stays two-way as Hormuz deal is 'close but not signed'. India refiners/airlines benefit from softer crude.
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 06 Aug 2026
Hormuz draft deal finalized; Trump says deal near, but US position unclear and oil rebounded (two-way). S&P record 7,736.52, Dow first close above 54,000. NVDA up on SpaceX AI deal. Energy/airlines now event-driven.
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 05 Aug 2026
Trump says Hormuz-reopening deal could come as early as Wednesday; Brent <$80. US stocks at records (S&P 500 7,736, Amazon >$3T). SELL energy (XOM, OXY, USO), BUY airlines/cruises (DAL, CCL, WMT).
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 04 Aug 2026
Trump Media (DJT) -4% on 0M Q2 loss and delayed crypto-ETF; Trump warns Iran talks are 'last chance' as oil rebounds 1.4%. DJT Hold, energy bounces (XOM), airlines dip (DAL).
Policy Pulse — Global — 03 Aug 2026
US-Iran de-escalation crashes crude 6%. India rallies: refiners (BPCL, HPCL, IOC), airlines (INDIGO), gas pure. US energy sells off (XOM, CVX); airlines gain.
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 03 Aug 2026
Trump cancels Iran strike, opens Hormuz talks — oil crashes ~6%. SELL energy (XOM, CVX, OXY), BUY airlines/cruises (DAL, UAL, CCL) and consumer.
Policy Pulse — Global — 30 Jul 2026
Fed hawkish hold sends yields to 2007 highs. Hormuz crude +7%. Adidas -19% record crash. Apple Siri AI upgrade. Reverse AI trade continues benefiting Indian IT. FII buying ₹2,982 Cr.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 30 Jul 2026
Fed holds rates steady, 30-yr yields hit 2007 highs. Apple Siri AI upgrade. Adidas -19% crash on World Cup margins. Crude +7% on Hormuz tensions. Sector rotation from tech to energy.
Policy Pulse — Global — 29 Jul 2026
KOSPI back-to-back circuit breakers (first ever). SK Hynix misses despite record profit. China DUV competition fears. Reverse AI Trade lifts Indian IT. Hormuz oil surge +7%. Fed decision day.
Policy Pulse — Global Spillover — 27 Jul 2026
Global markets rally on US-Iran war pause — Sensex +776, S&P 500 +1%, oil crashes 7%. Indian refiners reverse from SELL to BUY. ONGC biggest loser. BEL strong Q1. Fed meeting + Big Tech earnings this week. Saudi strikes Houthis — Red Sea risk persists.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 27 Jul 2026
US-Iran war pause holds — oil crashes 7%, S&P 500 rallies 1%. Brent at 85. Airlines/cruises reverse to BUY. Defence stocks dial back to HOLD. Fed week + Big Tech earnings in focus. Trump meets Netanyahu tomorrow on Iran trajectory.
Policy Pulse — Global Spillover — 24 Jul 2026
Strait of Hormuz crisis at peak — 13th night of US strikes, Iran rejects ceasefire, oil above 00. Generic drug tariff timeline begins Aug 1. Section 122 expiry relief for importers. Stock impact: BUY oil/gas/defence/renewables, SELL airlines/refiners/generic pharma.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 24 Jul 2026
Section 122 expires, replaced by Section 301 (10-12.5%) forced labor tariffs on 60 economies. Iran tariff EO signed. Hormuz crisis deepens — oil above $100. Generic drug tariff timeline begins. Stock impact: BUY oil/defence/retail, SELL airlines/cruises/generic pharma.
Policy Pulse — Global Spillover — 23 Jul 2026
INFY Q1: +12% PAT, guidance trimmed, ADR -4.85%. INDIGO: ₹238cr net loss on fuel costs (85% rise). CIPLA: -39% PAT. Hormuz: 12th night, Brent near 8. IOC/MRPL halt Iraq loadings. Section 122 expiry tomorrow benefits Indian IT/Textiles. ONGC gains, refiners bleed.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US Watch — 23 Jul 2026
Section 122 tariff expires TOMORROW (Jul 24) — USTR missed replacement deadline, Wyden bill to repeal. Hormuz 12th night, Brent near 8. Generic drug tariff structural overhang continues. US retailers (WMT, TGT, COST, AMZN) biggest beneficiaries of Section 122 expiry.
Policy Pulse — Global Spillover — 22 Jul 2026
US-Iran war enters 11th night of strikes; Trump threatens Iranian infrastructure. Hormuz closed — oil 5+, ONGC/OCD gain, refiners bleed. Trump generic drug tariff timeline hits TEVA, MYL globally. US-Jordan trade deal signed. Genesis B AI-for-science unveiled.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US Watch — 22 Jul 2026
Trump escalates Hormuz (threatens Iranian infrastructure), announces generic drug tariff timeline (0%→100%→200%), unveils B Genesis AI Mission. Oil, defence, branded pharma gain; airlines, generic pharma under pressure.
Policy Pulse — Global — 17 Jul 2026
Strait of Hormuz escalation: buy XOM, CVX, OXY, EOG; sell DAL, UAL, AAL, CCL, RCL. Section 301 deadline Jul 20: buy WMT, TGT, COST if Section 122 lapses; sell TCS, INFY, WIPRO, SUNPHARMA if 12.5% tariff hits.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 17 Jul 2026
Section 122 tariff expires Jul 24 (7 days) — buy WMT, TGT, COST, AMZN, HD, LOW. Strait of Hormuz escalates — buy XOM, CVX, OXY; sell DAL, UAL, AAL, CCL, RCL. USTR Section 301 deadline Jul 20.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 16 Jul 2026
Section 122 tariff expiry (Jul 24) just 8 days away — buy WMT, TGT, COST on import relief. Strait of Hormuz oil crisis intensifies — buy XOM, CVX, OXY, sell DAL, UAL, CCL.
Policy Pulse — Global — 15 Jul 2026
EU-US deal (15% ceiling) in effect, Section 301 deadline July 20, Section 122 expires July 24, USMCA enters annual review — TSLA, TCS, SUNPHARMA positioned across multi-tier tariff shifts.
Policy Pulse — Trump — 15 Jul 2026
Trump primetime address July 16 + Section 122 tariff expiry July 24 + pharma onshoring deadline July 31 create 9-day policy window — XOM, LLY, BA positioned for key outcomes.
Policy Pulse — Global — 14 Jul 2026
Global cross-currents: Iran blockade drives oil stocks (XOM, ONGC) higher while hitting airlines (DAL, UAL); US-India trade talks progress; Indian defence exports surge 62% to record (HAL, BEL, SOLARINDS).
Policy Pulse — Trump — 14 Jul 2026
Trump's $81B tariff refunds and new exemption EO signal shifting trade stance — tailwinds for mega-cap importers (AAPL, MSFT, LLY), crypto platforms (COIN, MSTR), and energy (XOM).
Policy Pulse — Global — 13 Jul 2026
Trump says US will get 'paid to guard' Strait of Hormuz — oil at 5-78 sustained. Iran tensions escalate with fresh strikes. Oil/gas stocks up (XOM, CVX, OXY), airlines down (DAL, UAL), cruises down (CCL, RCL). India-US trade talks stall adds EM uncertainty.
Policy Pulse — Trump — 13 Jul 2026
Trump signs aircraft Section 232 EO boosting US aerospace (BA, GE, RTX). Says US will get 'paid to guard' Strait of Hormuz — oil stocks up, airlines down. Crypto disclosure analyzed: .4B income invested in mega-cap tech (GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA, AVGO).
Policy Pulse — Global — 10 Jul 2026
Iran ceasefire 'over' as US-Iran trade strikes — oil surges to $78 amid renewed Hormuz disruption. Oil prices slid 2% on Jul 10 but remain elevated. IEA warns supply recovery uncertain. Treasury revokes Iranian oil waiver effective Jul 17. Airlines and cruise stocks hit hard.
Policy Pulse — Trump — 10 Jul 2026
Trump's portfolio beats S&P 500 with 37.3% return; top holdings GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA, AVGO. Brokers bought $10M-$24M in defence stocks. Aircraft Section 232 probe launched. Spain trade threat via IEEPA escalates. USMCA non-renewed. AI E.O. 14409 signed.
Policy Pulse — Global Spillover — 09 Jul 2026
Iran-US conflict escalates as Trump declares MoU 'over'. Iran strikes 85 US sites; oil surges to 8/barrel. Global markets sell off (Nifty -2.23%, KOSPI -5.35%). US approves Tomahawk missile sale to Germany. India's defence stocks and oil producers emerge as relative winners.
Policy Pulse — Trump — 09 Jul 2026
Trump's brokers bought 0M-4M in defence stocks (Palantir, Lockheed Martin, GD). Iran MoU declared 'over' — oil surges to 8. Trump Accounts launch with 0B expected inflow. India defends against Section 301 tariffs on Day 3 of USTR hearings.