Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 12 Aug 2026
🇺🇸 In-Line July CPI Keeps the Fed "At Bay," Re-Igniting the AI Rally (CoreWeave +18%, Super Micro), While Hormuz Holds Crude Near $89
US July CPI (released Aug 12) came in line: +0.1% m/m, +3.4% y/y, easing concern about an imminent September Fed hike. The market shrugged off the print — stocks and bonds both rose as traders cut rate-hike odds. The real driver was AI earnings: CoreWeave surged +18% after reporting its 5th straight quarter of revenue growth — Q2 revenue doubled on surging hyperscaler AI demand — and Super Micro climbed on upbeat forecasts confirming a sustained AI buildout. The combined signal re-ignited the AI-infrastructure trade (sector-capex narrative ~$1.6T).
The second thread is crude. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed (Day 164), with only ~8 ships/day transiting vs ~73 normal, as U.S.-Iran deal hopes fade and Omani/US talks stay short of a signature. Brent sits at ~$88.7–$89.7, near its two-week high. That supports energy and keeps pressure on airlines/cruises — a two-way trade that only fully re-arms on a SIGNED reopening.
| Stock | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| CRWV (CoreWeave) | 🟢 BUY | +18% — Q2 revenue doubled on hyperscaler AI demand (5th straight quarter), the clearest AI-buildout signal today |
| SMCI | 🟢 Buy | Super Micro rallied on upbeat forecasts confirming sustained AI capex (~$1.6T sector backdrop) |
| NVDA / MSFT / GOOGL / META | 🟢 Buy | AI mega-caps — tame CPI keeps the Fed on hold and extends the earnings-led tech rally |
| QQQ / SPY | 🟢 Watch | Index proxies to the rate-hike-off trade; rallied on the in-line print |
| XOM / CVX / OXY / HAL / SLB / USO | 🟢 Watch | Brent ~$89 (two-week high) with Hormuz shut and deal hopes fading — crude-linked energy in favor |
| DAL / UAL / AAL / LUV / CCL / RCL / NCLH | 🟡 Two-way | Elevated fuel costs with crude near $89 — rally only on a SIGNED Hormuz reopening |
| TEVA / MYL | 🔴 Watch | Generic pharma stay under the structural Section 301/232 + phased generic-drug tariff regime (0%→100%→200%) |
📊 US Market Context (Aug 12)
- CPI: +0.1% m/m / +3.4% y/y (vs 2.5% June) — in-line, market shrugged, stocks+bonds rose, September-hike odds trimmed.
- AI beats: CoreWeave +18% (Q2 revenue doubled, 5 straight quarters of growth) + Super Micro (sustained buildout guidance) powered the tech/AI rally.
- Hormuz: Strait effectively closed (Day 164, ~8 ships/day vs ~73 normal); Brent $88.7–$89.7 near two-week high; talks short of signature. Two-way.
- Indices: Dow / S&P 500 / Nasdaq higher after CPI + AI, recovering Monday's dip.
Country rule applied: US stocks only. No new Trump personal-equity-trade disclosure surpassed the already-reported Q1/Q2 278-T filings today (not republished per standing practice).
⚠️ What to Watch Next
- Fed path: in-line CPI keeps a September hold on the table; a hot services print or Hormuz-driven oil pass-through would re-awaken hike bets.
- Hormuz signature — a signed Iran/Oman route flips energy/airlines; until then crude ~$88-90.
- AI capex — CoreWeave/SMCI reinforce the AI-infrastructure buy; watch hyperscaler capex guidance.
- Recurring — Sep 29 medical-device Section 232 tariffs; Nov 2026 midterms; ongoing Section 301 tariff administration (India on the lower 10% tier).