Fed
26 articles tagged fed
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Oct 2026
Two days from the Graham Act deadline there is still no Section 113(g) notice to Congress, leaving VLO, PSX and DAL on the right side of a licensed Russian diesel flow. Trump's pharma portfolio grew from $1.7 million to as much as $56.2 million as Medicare exemptions expanded, and the US-Mexico tariff deal stalled on the 25% auto and 50% metals levies.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Oct 2026
A 3.7% September CPI was followed by a 6.3% PPI, the biggest since 2022, taking October hike odds to a coin flip; Walmart, Lilly and Nike gained while CRWV, MU, WDC and ORCL were sold on data-centre debt. Five days from the Graham Act deadline there is still no notice to Congress, and Trump's August filing showed up to USD 25M of META bought on one day.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 13 Oct 2026
Goldman beat on a 72% surge in equities revenue while JPMorgan missed its first quarter in three years. Trump floated a US diesel export cap five days before the Graham Act's October 18 deadline, hitting VLO and PSX, and Trump Media pulled three crypto ETF filings as DJT fell 5% on a 32% approval rating.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 12 Oct 2026
The Justice Department opened an antitrust probe into the five networks in the White House television pool, an overhang for CMCSA, PARA, WBD and FOXA, and a federal judge ordered the administration to cancel its taxpayer-funded television advertisements. Foreign military sales reform took effect for LMT, RTX and NOC, importers won a class-action route to tariff refunds for WMT and TGT, and Brent above USD 106 kept DAL and UAL under pressure into bank earnings on Tuesday.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 09 Oct 2026
Brent slipped to about USD 103 after Trump ruled out an Iran strike before the November 3 midterms, negative for XOM and CVX and positive for airlines and Indian oil marketers; a strong 30-year auction pulled the US long end back from a 24-year high; and the US-China 30-for-30 tariff lists named toys and appliances and medical devices, with the truce extended to January 10, 2027.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 08 Oct 2026
Brent rose 4.25 percent to USD 104.5 after Axios reported the Pentagon has been told to prepare for a possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran and Tropical Storm Isaias shut in a quarter of Gulf of Mexico output, positive for XOM, CVX and ONGC and negative for DAL, IOC and BPCL; hawkish September FOMC minutes kept the 10-year near 5.28 percent and the 30-year at 2002 levels, and India joined the US-led 15-country excess-capacity initiative while a Section 301 investigation into India's own industrial policies remains live.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026
The G20 Trade Ministerial opened in Milwaukee on steel excess capacity, MFN erosion and forced labour - the same ground as the Section 301 tariffs under challenge at the Court of International Trade - while core PCE at 3.0% cut October Fed hike odds from 71% to 35% and eased the front end. Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline and Yanbu loadings, Gulf exports recovered to 23.3 mbpd with Brent near $103, and India kept 0% Section 232 tariffs on specialty drugs, supporting SUNPHARMA and DRREDDY.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 16 Sep 2026
Brent held above USD 108 after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline went offline, the Fed is set to deliver its first hike since 2023 with a 25bp move 94% priced, and the BoJ meets September 17-18 expected to lift rates to a 31-year high of 1.25%. ONGC and OIL gain on the crude bid while IOC, BPCL and HINDPETRO absorb negative marketing margins.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Sep 2026
The Senate kills the CLARITY Act 49-50, sending COIN down ~10% and CRCL 8-11% and closing crypto's legislative route for 2026, while a 25bp Fed hike is 94% priced into tonight's decision with the 10-year at 4.995%. Trump's $1.4bn crypto income and the bill's blind-trust ethics clause made this a leader-trade story.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Sep 2026
Trump rejected Anthropic's AI slowdown call outright - 'whoever wins AI wins' - removing policy risk from the NVDA/AVGO/VRT capex trade even as the 10-year crossed 5% and hike odds topped 90% into tomorrow's FOMC. Canada's Section 338 product changes took effect today (ATVs and dairy in, road salt and cement out) and the Senate holds its 60-vote CLARITY Act test this afternoon (COIN, HOOD).
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 11 Sep 2026
Brent's surge to a USD 107.63 close (highest since May 19) and a hot 0.3% core CPI pushed the US 10-year to about 4.95% and the 30-year to 19-year highs - buy energy (XOM, CVX, ONGC), sell airlines (DAL, UAL, INDIGO). BRICS opens in New Delhi with CBDC payment links and critical minerals on the agenda, not a common currency.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 11 Sep 2026
August CPI matched at 3.4% y/y but core ran 0.3% m/m, holding September Fed hike odds near 60% and the 10-year near 4.95% - a headwind for NVDA, MU and INTC into ORCL's AI cloud beat. Trump's USD 5,000 dividend pledge costs an estimated USD 1.2-1.35 trillion (TLT risk, GLD bid) and Canada's Section 338 scope changes land September 15 (F, GM, STLA).
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 10 Sep 2026
Hot August PPI (headline +5.4% y/y, energy +4.2%, diesel +24.1%) and crude back above USD 100 pushed the 10-year to a 2023 high and September hike odds near 66%. Trump's top-9 energy holdings gained USD 1.5-4.4M during the Iran war (CVX, COP, XOM, OXY); Canada tariffs escalate to import bans on dairy, alcohol and motorcycles (F, GM, STLA, HOG) while aluminium bars and rods face 50% (AA).
Policy Pulse — Global — 13 Aug 2026
AI buying + easing oil carry global equities; Hormuz stays unsigned two-way (Brent ~87.7); India's Tata Motors +83% Q1 offsets metals/bank drag
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 13 Aug 2026
AI rally carries US stocks toward records as oil eases (Brent ~87.7); Truth API hit by a First-Amendment lawsuit; S&P near record, Nasdaq 100 +1.2%
Policy Pulse — Global — 12 Aug 2026
Tame CPI + AI earnings (CoreWeave +18%) carry global equities; Hormuz holds crude near $89 two-way; India rotates to metals/PSU-banks away from Tata/IT/healthcare
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 12 Aug 2026
In-line July CPI (3.4%) keeps the Fed at bay and re-ignites the AI rally (CoreWeave +18%, Super Micro); Hormuz holds crude near $89; no new Trump trades
Policy Pulse — Global — 11 Aug 2026
Hormuz 'honeymoon' over - crude rallies to 88-90 as US-Iran deal hopes fade (possible 120-140 tipping point into Q4); markets camp at highs ahead of Aug 12 US CPI; pharma/IT cushion Indian dip
Policy Pulse — Global — 10 Aug 2026
Three global threads: US critical-minerals spend reprices rare-earth/magnet supply chain; Hormuz close-but-not-signed keeps crude two-way (Brent ~83.5); soft US jobs data lifts rate-cut trade ahead of Aug 12 CPI
Policy Pulse — Global — 31 Jul 2026
US pharma Section 232 tariffs live (branded protected, generics exempt). India Samudra Manthan energy-security capex (ONGC, OIL). Markets stabilize post-Fed.
Policy Pulse — Global — 30 Jul 2026
Fed hawkish hold sends yields to 2007 highs. Hormuz crude +7%. Adidas -19% record crash. Apple Siri AI upgrade. Reverse AI trade continues benefiting Indian IT. FII buying ₹2,982 Cr.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 30 Jul 2026
Fed holds rates steady, 30-yr yields hit 2007 highs. Apple Siri AI upgrade. Adidas -19% crash on World Cup margins. Crude +7% on Hormuz tensions. Sector rotation from tech to energy.
Policy Pulse — Global — 29 Jul 2026
KOSPI back-to-back circuit breakers (first ever). SK Hynix misses despite record profit. China DUV competition fears. Reverse AI Trade lifts Indian IT. Hormuz oil surge +7%. Fed decision day.
Policy Pulse — Global Spillover — 27 Jul 2026
Global markets rally on US-Iran war pause — Sensex +776, S&P 500 +1%, oil crashes 7%. Indian refiners reverse from SELL to BUY. ONGC biggest loser. BEL strong Q1. Fed meeting + Big Tech earnings this week. Saudi strikes Houthis — Red Sea risk persists.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 27 Jul 2026
US-Iran war pause holds — oil crashes 7%, S&P 500 rallies 1%. Brent at 85. Airlines/cruises reverse to BUY. Defence stocks dial back to HOLD. Fed week + Big Tech earnings in focus. Trump meets Netanyahu tomorrow on Iran trajectory.
🇺🇸 US Markets Crashed — Fed, KOSPI & AI Fatigue Explained
Deep-dive on the June 23 US market crash. Nasdaq futures -2.1%, S&P 500 -1.04%. KOSPI circuit breaker #4, Fed rate hike odds at 90% by Sep, AI capex fatigue, and impact on your portfolio.