GM
4 deep-dives · 15 policy notes
What has moved GM
10 dated calls from the policy coverage · 3 positive · 4 negative · 3 watch
- Negative2026-10-19inferred
All three build in Mexico and Canada and had been pricing a reduction in the 25% vehicle and 50% metals duties; the stall leaves the current cost stack in place
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 19 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-16inferred
The deal does not close the EU market to Chinese-built EVs, but it makes European-built vehicles cheaper to finance and to buy through public schemes, which is a relative disadvantage for imports and for US platforms that sell into Europe from outside the bloc
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 16 Oct 2026 - Negative2026-10-16inferred
All three assemble in Mexico and had been pricing in a reduction of the 25% vehicle tariff; a stalled deal leaves the current landed cost in place through at least the next negotiating window
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 16 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-05
Doubled tariffs on Korean imports would raise the landed cost of Hyundai and Kia vehicles against domestic light-truck and SUV lineups. This is a relative-share gain, not a demand gain
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 05 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-01
Canada's retaliatory posture and the US import bans on Canadian alcohol, motorcycles and dairy run through integrated North American supply chains. A Canada-India deal by year end is a separate and smaller channel
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-09-30
Car seats appear on the US list; a small but direct auto input
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026 - Watch2026-09-30
Motorcycles are banned but motor vehicles are only subject to scope changes; watch whether the July 20 product list is widened into four-wheelers
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-30
Car seats appear on the US list — a small but direct auto supply-chain input
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026 - Negative2026-09-11
Auto and parts remain squarely inside the Section 338 scope regardless of USMCA content
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 11 Sep 2026 - Negative2026-09-10
The deepest cross-border manufacturing exposure of any S&P sector: Canadian-built vehicles and parts face tariff and scope risk both ways
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 10 Sep 2026
Deep-dive research
Policy Pulse — Global — 21 Jul 2026
🌍 Hormuz crisis: Day 9 of US strikes on Iran, Houthis blockade Saudi, Brent at 9.22, US gas at /gal. Canada hit with 50% Section 338 tariffs on 0B of goods. Section 122 expires in 3 days (Jul 24). Impact: 🟢 BUY XOM, CVX, OXY, WMT, TGT, COST, TSLA, MP | 🔴 SELL DAL, UAL, AAL, CCL, STLA
Policy Pulse — Trump/US Watch — 21 Jul 2026
Trump's portfolio beats S&P (37.3% vs 23.5%); Canada slapped with 50% Section 338 tariffs on autos/booze/dairy; Defense Supply Chain EO cuts China waivers. Section 122 expiry in 3 days. Impact: 🟢 BUY GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA, PLTR, XOM, WMT, TGT, MP | 🔴 SELL DAL, UAL, STLA
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 02 Jul 2026
USMCA not renewed → F, GM, STLA sell; NUE, X, CLF buy (domestic steel). USTR Section 301 forced labor tariff hearings Jul 7 → WMT, TGT sell (import exposure). LNG permits fast-tracked → LNG, XOM, KMI buy. US stocks only analysis.
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 01 Jul 2026
USMCA threat → F, GM sell; NUE, X, CLF buy. SC birthright citizenship → MSFT, AAPL moderate risk; PLTR benefits. Fed hawkish → JPM, GS buy; PLTR sell. US stocks only — this is a US policy analysis.
Mentioned in Policy Pulse
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 19 Oct 2026
Trump set 500% duties on Russia and 100% on the five largest buyers of Russian energy in a Friday executive order, then waived every one of them under Section 115, lifting a 100% tariff tail risk off AAPL's India assembly base and putting a supply premium out of XOM and CVX.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026
G20 trade ministers endorsed a Milwaukee Framework on steel overcapacity as Greer put the MFN principle itself up for review, while a Section 301 overcapacity probe covering 16 economies including India remains the unexercised risk to SUNPHARMA, WELSPUNLIV and BHARATFORG. Brent went back above $100 on China's fuel-export halt, lifting XOM and CVX against DAL and CCL, the US 10-year held near 5.28% after its biggest quarterly gain since 1994, and Micron's blowout quarter drove a 2.9-3.3% Nikkei rally.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026
The G20 Trade Ministerial opened in Milwaukee on steel excess capacity, MFN erosion and forced labour - the same ground as the Section 301 tariffs under challenge at the Court of International Trade - while core PCE at 3.0% cut October Fed hike odds from 71% to 35% and eased the front end. Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline and Yanbu loadings, Gulf exports recovered to 23.3 mbpd with Brent near $103, and India kept 0% Section 232 tariffs on specialty drugs, supporting SUNPHARMA and DRREDDY.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026
Core PCE cooled to 3.0% and cut the priced odds of an October hike from 71% to 35%, sending short-dated yields lower and equity indices higher, while the Section 301 forced-labour tariffs - 10-12.5% on 86 countries covering 99.4% of US imports - went before the Court of International Trade and Trump credited a $15bn Iowa steel mill to his 50% steel tariffs. Canada's $1bn alcohol and dairy import ban is live, and the July 278-T showed 1,156 trades including Strategy bought at the 2026 lows.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 11 Sep 2026
August CPI matched at 3.4% y/y but core ran 0.3% m/m, holding September Fed hike odds near 60% and the 10-year near 4.95% - a headwind for NVDA, MU and INTC into ORCL's AI cloud beat. Trump's USD 5,000 dividend pledge costs an estimated USD 1.2-1.35 trillion (TLT risk, GLD bid) and Canada's Section 338 scope changes land September 15 (F, GM, STLA).
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 10 Sep 2026
Hot August PPI (headline +5.4% y/y, energy +4.2%, diesel +24.1%) and crude back above USD 100 pushed the 10-year to a 2023 high and September hike odds near 66%. Trump's top-9 energy holdings gained USD 1.5-4.4M during the Iran war (CVX, COP, XOM, OXY); Canada tariffs escalate to import bans on dairy, alcohol and motorcycles (F, GM, STLA, HOG) while aluminium bars and rods face 50% (AA).
Policy Pulse — Global Spillover — 26 Aug 2026
US-Canada trade war threatens North American supply chains; Hormuz remains two-way risk; G20 Trade Ministerial preview
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 26 Aug 2026
Trump invokes Section 338 for 50% Canada tariffs; New disclosure reveals SpaceX investment, heavy buying of HD, MA, V, BRK.B
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 25 Aug 2026
Trump disclosed 1,051 June trades including Boeing same-day as Navy contract; US-Canada trade war escalates with 50% tariffs
Policy Pulse — Global Spillover — US-Canada Trade War & Commodity Shifts — 24 Aug 2026
US-Canada 50% tariff trade war escalates; India Sensex -171 to 77,369; metals gain on supply realignment; gold hits 3-month highs; TATASTEEL, JSWSTEEL beneficiaries
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 21 Aug 2026
Canada trade deal deadline looms with 50% Section 338 tariffs set for Aug 22; deal very close with auto tariffs potentially cut to 15%; Trump hosts crypto summit, DJT Truth API generating revenue
Policy Pulse — Modi & Trump — 19-20 Aug 2026
Trump pauses 50% Canada tariffs (Section 338), Modi appeals for economic self-reliance, SEBI modifies disclosure framework, RBI MPC minutes signal possible rate hike
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 31 Jul 2026
US Pharmaceutical Section 232 tariffs take effect today: 100% on branded patented drugs, generics exempt. Structural BUY for LLY, MRK, JNJ, PFE, ABBV. Watch Sept 29 expansion.
Policy Pulse — Global — 15 Jul 2026
EU-US deal (15% ceiling) in effect, Section 301 deadline July 20, Section 122 expires July 24, USMCA enters annual review — TSLA, TCS, SUNPHARMA positioned across multi-tier tariff shifts.
Policy Pulse — Trump — 14 Jul 2026
Trump's $81B tariff refunds and new exemption EO signal shifting trade stance — tailwinds for mega-cap importers (AAPL, MSFT, LLY), crypto platforms (COIN, MSTR), and energy (XOM).