LOW
2 deep-dives · 13 policy notes
What has moved LOW
14 dated calls from the policy coverage · 10 positive · 0 negative · 4 watch
- Positive2026-10-15
In a stagflation tape the pricing power sits with the retailer that buys at scale and sells consumables; Walmart added 3-4% on the same day the S&P could not hold a gain
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 15 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-13
The certification converts a scattered set of individual suits into a single route for tens of thousands of importers, and the largest importers carry the largest refund claims
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 13 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-12inferred
Large importers with the biggest duty accumulations are the direct beneficiaries of a refund route and of the lower landed cost it implies
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 12 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-07
A record import bill into the holiday build is a landed-cost headwind, partly offset by the IEEPA refund channel opened on October 6
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 07 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-06
Freight-cost passthrough into grocery and big-ticket goods; the political intent is visible shelf-price relief
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 06 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-06
Large importers dominate the plaintiff list; refunds arrive as cash against already-booked cost of goods
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 06 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-02
The "use domestic suppliers" message is a structural input-cost signal for retailers and manufacturers with China-linked supply chains, and it is being delivered by the USTR from the Midwest
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 02 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-01
The Milwaukee agenda — forced labour, food-trade weaponisation, MFN revision — is a statement of intent about *more* trade friction rather than less, at the same time as the existing forced-labour tariffs are in court. Import-reliant retailers sit on both sides of that
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-01
A CIT ruling striking the forced-labour tariffs — or a remand — would remove a 10-12.5% cost layer across 99.4% of US imports. This is a legal outcome, not a forecast, and the court has not ruled
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-01
If the Section 301 forced-labour tariffs are struck down or remanded at the Court of International Trade, import-reliant retailers are the first-order beneficiaries. This is a live and unresolved legal risk, not a ruling
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 01 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-09-30
Toys, ornaments, fireworks, tableware and small appliances are on the US cut list, and the truce extension to January 10 removes a Q4 cliff
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-30
A ruling against the 301 tariffs would cut landed cost across the widest part of the import basket; the caveat is that a refund event also injects pricing uncertainty into the holiday quarter
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-30
Toys, ornaments, fireworks, tableware and small appliances are the exact categories US importers had been deferring orders on; the tariff relief is narrow but arrives before peak holiday sell-through
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026 - Watch2026-09-11
A USD 5,000 cheque would be a genuine consumption impulse if it ever passed — but it is conditional on an election outcome and is not priced
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 11 Sep 2026
Deep-dive research
Policy Pulse — Global — 21 Jul 2026
🌍 Hormuz crisis: Day 9 of US strikes on Iran, Houthis blockade Saudi, Brent at 9.22, US gas at /gal. Canada hit with 50% Section 338 tariffs on 0B of goods. Section 122 expires in 3 days (Jul 24). Impact: 🟢 BUY XOM, CVX, OXY, WMT, TGT, COST, TSLA, MP | 🔴 SELL DAL, UAL, AAL, CCL, STLA
Policy Pulse — Trump/US Watch — 21 Jul 2026
Trump's portfolio beats S&P (37.3% vs 23.5%); Canada slapped with 50% Section 338 tariffs on autos/booze/dairy; Defense Supply Chain EO cuts China waivers. Section 122 expiry in 3 days. Impact: 🟢 BUY GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA, PLTR, XOM, WMT, TGT, MP | 🔴 SELL DAL, UAL, STLA
Mentioned in Policy Pulse
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 07 Oct 2026
Trump unveiled Anduril's USD 3.7 billion Arsenal-2 submarine shipyard at Sparrows Point with a Navy contract of up to USD 2.9 billion and announced a 40 percent US government stake in the operating subsidiary, a 15 percent lift to Virginia-class production capacity that is positive for NUE and STLD on naval steel while leaving incumbents GD and HII two-sided as a new component competitor enters. The August trade deficit widened to USD 105.6 billion, the widest since Liberation Day, on record imports led by semiconductors and nonmonetary gold, positive for NVDA, AMD and NEM. The IRS issued a staking safe harbour, positive for COIN and HOOD.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 06 Oct 2026
Trump signed an Emergency Tax Relief on Diesel Fuel order deferring the federal diesel excise tax from October 5 to December 31 for highway use - a per-mile cost cut for ODFL, CSX and DAL rather than a supply fix, with pump diesel still at USD 6.32 a gallon. CBP opened CAPE Phase 3 today, releasing roughly USD 20.6 billion of IEEPA tariff refunds to about 3,700 court plaintiffs - a cash event for WMT, TGT and AMZN. The copy-trade signal of the session was PTC Inc, up 30% in a day on disclosed presidential holdings of up to USD 6.15 million, while the July filing's USD 5-25 million sales each of AMZN and MSFT remain the largest non-DJT equity exits.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 01 Oct 2026
G20 trade ministers endorsed a Milwaukee Framework on steel overcapacity as Greer put the MFN principle itself up for review, while a Section 301 overcapacity probe covering 16 economies including India remains the unexercised risk to SUNPHARMA, WELSPUNLIV and BHARATFORG. Brent went back above $100 on China's fuel-export halt, lifting XOM and CVX against DAL and CCL, the US 10-year held near 5.28% after its biggest quarterly gain since 1994, and Micron's blowout quarter drove a 2.9-3.3% Nikkei rally.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 01 Oct 2026
Trump Media filed the S-4 for its all-stock merger with TAE Technologies, turning DJT into one of the first publicly listed commercial fusion developers. The White House Super Intelligence order added no compliance burden on NVDA, AVGO and MSFT, while the Senate killed the Stop Insider Trading Act 53-47 and the July disclosure showed pure buys in SO and PSA. Boeing took a $20bn-plus Navy F/A-XX award against NOC, and Micron's blowout quarter lifted Nasdaq futures as Brent went back above $100.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026
The G20 Trade Ministerial opened in Milwaukee on steel excess capacity, MFN erosion and forced labour - the same ground as the Section 301 tariffs under challenge at the Court of International Trade - while core PCE at 3.0% cut October Fed hike odds from 71% to 35% and eased the front end. Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline and Yanbu loadings, Gulf exports recovered to 23.3 mbpd with Brent near $103, and India kept 0% Section 232 tariffs on specialty drugs, supporting SUNPHARMA and DRREDDY.
Policy Pulse — Global Spillover — US-Canada Trade War & Commodity Shifts — 24 Aug 2026
US-Canada 50% tariff trade war escalates; India Sensex -171 to 77,369; metals gain on supply realignment; gold hits 3-month highs; TATASTEEL, JSWSTEEL beneficiaries
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 21 Aug 2026
Canada trade deal deadline looms with 50% Section 338 tariffs set for Aug 22; deal very close with auto tariffs potentially cut to 15%; Trump hosts crypto summit, DJT Truth API generating revenue
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 18 Aug 2026
Trump signs EO for 50% Canada tariffs effective Aug 19 using Section 338; retail beneficiaries WMT HD LOW, cruise lines CCL RCL at risk
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 27 Jul 2026
US-Iran war pause holds — oil crashes 7%, S&P 500 rallies 1%. Brent at 85. Airlines/cruises reverse to BUY. Defence stocks dial back to HOLD. Fed week + Big Tech earnings in focus. Trump meets Netanyahu tomorrow on Iran trajectory.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 24 Jul 2026
Section 122 expires, replaced by Section 301 (10-12.5%) forced labor tariffs on 60 economies. Iran tariff EO signed. Hormuz crisis deepens — oil above $100. Generic drug tariff timeline begins. Stock impact: BUY oil/defence/retail, SELL airlines/cruises/generic pharma.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US Watch — 23 Jul 2026
Section 122 tariff expires TOMORROW (Jul 24) — USTR missed replacement deadline, Wyden bill to repeal. Hormuz 12th night, Brent near 8. Generic drug tariff structural overhang continues. US retailers (WMT, TGT, COST, AMZN) biggest beneficiaries of Section 122 expiry.
Policy Pulse — Global — 17 Jul 2026
Strait of Hormuz escalation: buy XOM, CVX, OXY, EOG; sell DAL, UAL, AAL, CCL, RCL. Section 301 deadline Jul 20: buy WMT, TGT, COST if Section 122 lapses; sell TCS, INFY, WIPRO, SUNPHARMA if 12.5% tariff hits.
Policy Pulse — Trump/US — 17 Jul 2026
Section 122 tariff expires Jul 24 (7 days) — buy WMT, TGT, COST, AMZN, HD, LOW. Strait of Hormuz escalates — buy XOM, CVX, OXY; sell DAL, UAL, AAL, CCL, RCL. USTR Section 301 deadline Jul 20.