MP
3 deep-dives · 9 policy notes
What has moved MP
10 dated calls from the policy coverage · 5 positive · 0 negative · 5 watch
- Positive2026-10-07
Offtake plus price-floor structures convert policy support into contracted revenue
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 07 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-10-05
The only revenue-generating US rare-earth producer at scale, and the reported object of Chinese strategic interest. A January 2027 DFARS magnet cutoff is a captive-demand event
Policy Pulse - Global - 05 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-02
Persistent Gulf volatility remains the structural argument for critical-minerals and magnet reshoring policy, which is the listed thesis behind the US rare-earth complex. Sentiment channel, not earnings
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 02 Oct 2026 - Watch2026-10-02
The standing structural angle: the President's disclosed portfolio has been weighted to policy-adjacent sectors, and critical minerals is the policy theme where government equity stakes and OSC loans create the tightest link between policy and price
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 02 Oct 2026 - Positive2026-09-30
Rare earths and critical minerals are named in the US-China outcome as continuing workstreams — the magnet reshoring theme remains live on both the Trump and Beijing tracks
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026 - Watch2026-09-30
Critical minerals run through Section 232 and procurement policy rather than 301, so the litigation is a sentiment event for the magnet theme rather than a direct one
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-30
Chinese tariff relief is accompanied by an explicit commitment to keep working on US rare-earth and critical-mineral supply-chain concerns; the magnet theme stays live
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026 - Watch2026-09-11inferred
(US). Any BRICS coordination on critical minerals raises the strategic premium on Western supply-security spending, which is the policy support these names trade on
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 11 Sep 2026 - Positive2026-09-11
Chinese export controls on these two names are the clearest evidence that Western supply-security spending continues
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 11 Sep 2026 - Watch2026-08-08
Sell 5 / Neutral 1 / Buy 9
US Rare-Earth & Magnet Plays: USA Rare Earth (USAR) vs MP Materials (MP)
Deep-dive research
US Rare-Earth & Magnet Plays: USA Rare Earth (USAR) vs MP Materials (MP)
Trump's Aug 7 mining roundtable lit up magnets/rare-earths. Deep-dive on USAR (govt-backed mine-to-magnet, +29% on week, pre-revenue) vs MP (real +89% rev growth, EBITDA positive, magnets ship Q4'26). MP = core FAVOURABLE; USAR = high-risk momentum CAUTION.
Policy Pulse — Global — 21 Jul 2026
🌍 Hormuz crisis: Day 9 of US strikes on Iran, Houthis blockade Saudi, Brent at 9.22, US gas at /gal. Canada hit with 50% Section 338 tariffs on 0B of goods. Section 122 expires in 3 days (Jul 24). Impact: 🟢 BUY XOM, CVX, OXY, WMT, TGT, COST, TSLA, MP | 🔴 SELL DAL, UAL, AAL, CCL, STLA
Policy Pulse — Trump/US Watch — 21 Jul 2026
Trump's portfolio beats S&P (37.3% vs 23.5%); Canada slapped with 50% Section 338 tariffs on autos/booze/dairy; Defense Supply Chain EO cuts China waivers. Section 122 expiry in 3 days. Impact: 🟢 BUY GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA, PLTR, XOM, WMT, TGT, MP | 🔴 SELL DAL, UAL, STLA
Mentioned in Policy Pulse
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 07 Oct 2026
Trump unveiled Anduril's USD 3.7 billion Arsenal-2 submarine shipyard at Sparrows Point with a Navy contract of up to USD 2.9 billion and announced a 40 percent US government stake in the operating subsidiary, a 15 percent lift to Virginia-class production capacity that is positive for NUE and STLD on naval steel while leaving incumbents GD and HII two-sided as a new component competitor enters. The August trade deficit widened to USD 105.6 billion, the widest since Liberation Day, on record imports led by semiconductors and nonmonetary gold, positive for NVDA, AMD and NEM. The IRS issued a staking safe harbour, positive for COIN and HOOD.
Policy Pulse - Global - 05 Oct 2026
The G7 began a coordinated 100-million-barrel IEA release with a frontloaded diesel leg after Trump's export-ban threat, splitting the crude market - Brent near $101.5 against WTI below $90 and Murban at $110.80 - which is positive for DAL, UAL and INDIGO and negative for VLO and PSX. The Lindsey Graham Act's secondary sanctions on Russian-crude buyers could be decided by October 18, a live risk for RELIANCE, IOC and BPCL, while the US-Ukraine fund's first $30 million minerals deal and China's rare-earth suspension extension to January 2027 lift MP and USAR.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 02 Oct 2026
A 29,000 US payroll print against a 90,000 consensus removed the October Fed hike and reversed the global bond selloff that had driven the 10-year Treasury to a 24-year high — a positive for TCS, INFY and QQQ and a relief valve for emerging markets. Trump said Europe agreed to release emergency diesel stocks, sending Brent below $100 and lifting DAL, UAL, CCL and RCL while pressuring XOM and CVX, even as the Iran ceasefire expired and three Hormuz tankers were struck. G20 Milwaukee produced a steel framework and no China tariff timetable, French spreads hit their widest over Germany since 2012, and Micron's blowout quarter drove a memory-led Asian relief rally.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 02 Oct 2026
September payrolls came in at just 29,000 against an 84,000-90,000 consensus with unemployment at 4.2% and July revised into a loss, taking the October Fed hike off the table and sending Treasury yields tumbling from a 24-year high. Trump announced on Truth Social that Europe will release emergency diesel stocks, pushing Brent below $100 and lifting DAL, UAL, CCL and RCL while pressuring XOM and CVX. Greer closed the G20 in Milwaukee with no timetable for US-China tariff cuts, and the July disclosure showed Trump's team sold up to $25 million each of AMZN and MSFT.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 30 Sep 2026
The G20 Trade Ministerial opened in Milwaukee on steel excess capacity, MFN erosion and forced labour - the same ground as the Section 301 tariffs under challenge at the Court of International Trade - while core PCE at 3.0% cut October Fed hike odds from 71% to 35% and eased the front end. Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline and Yanbu loadings, Gulf exports recovered to 23.3 mbpd with Brent near $103, and India kept 0% Section 232 tariffs on specialty drugs, supporting SUNPHARMA and DRREDDY.
Policy Pulse - Trump / US Watch - 30 Sep 2026
Core PCE cooled to 3.0% and cut the priced odds of an October hike from 71% to 35%, sending short-dated yields lower and equity indices higher, while the Section 301 forced-labour tariffs - 10-12.5% on 86 countries covering 99.4% of US imports - went before the Court of International Trade and Trump credited a $15bn Iowa steel mill to his 50% steel tariffs. Canada's $1bn alcohol and dairy import ban is live, and the July 278-T showed 1,156 trades including Strategy bought at the 2026 lows.
Policy Pulse - Global Spillover - 11 Sep 2026
Brent's surge to a USD 107.63 close (highest since May 19) and a hot 0.3% core CPI pushed the US 10-year to about 4.95% and the 30-year to 19-year highs - buy energy (XOM, CVX, ONGC), sell airlines (DAL, UAL, INDIGO). BRICS opens in New Delhi with CBDC payment links and critical minerals on the agenda, not a common currency.
Policy Pulse — Global — 10 Aug 2026
Three global threads: US critical-minerals spend reprices rare-earth/magnet supply chain; Hormuz close-but-not-signed keeps crude two-way (Brent ~83.5); soft US jobs data lifts rate-cut trade ahead of Aug 12 CPI
Policy Pulse — Trump / US — 10 Aug 2026
Trump's historic mining roundtable (Aug 7) pumps over 3B into rare earth, magnets, and battery supply chains; US rare-earth complex rallies (USAR +11%, MP up)